ME, SC, KY - Quinnipiac: Gideon +12, Tied, McConnell +12

[SenatorCouzens]

Harrison tied is a little outlandish IMO, but I don't find the Collins results that implausible. The Senate race results shouldn't deviate much from the presidential, and I find it easy to imagine Biden winning statewide by double digits here.

The problem with this poll is that it does deviate from the presidential. They have Biden up 21, which is really a lot. Gideon underperforming by 9 would make it a tossup with a more normal Biden margin

Exactly. Clearly an awful poll for Collins and I'm not going to dispute that, but we can't ignore the fact this same poll has Gideon underperforming Biden by 9.

[SenatorCouzens]

Harrison tied is a little outlandish IMO, but I don't find the Collins results that implausible. The Senate race results shouldn't deviate much from the presidential, and I find it easy to imagine Biden winning statewide by double digits here.

The problem with this poll is that it does deviate from the presidential. They have Biden up 21, which is really a lot. Gideon underperforming by 9 would make it a tossup with a more normal Biden margin

Exactly. Clearly an awful poll for Collins and I'm not going to dispute that, but we can't ignore the fact this same poll has Gideon underperforming Biden by 9.

Well of course. Collins is going to run ahead of Trump. That's obvious.

This poll isn't inherently anti-GOP though. Collins has a 43/51 favorable here which seems pretty in step with most of the other polls out of Maine we've seen...

Fair enough. But I don't think anyone is saying that "of course" Collins margin against Gideon is going to be NINE points better than Trump's against Biden. It's a silver lining for Collins in what is a very bad poll for her indeed. If Collins somehow improves and ekes out a victory on election day (unlikely) her ability to run not only ahead, but well ahead, of Trump will (of course) be the reason.

[SenatorCouzens]

Pure garbage in, garbage out. Not even worth trying to adjust... "well if you swing that one 20 points, that one 10 points, and that one 8 points, they look OK."