ME, SC, KY - Quinnipiac: Gideon +12, Tied, McConnell +12

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 10-14

KY
1164 likely vtoers
MoE: 2.9%

Someone else 1%
Don't know/no answer 4%

ME
1183 likely voters
MoE: 2.9%

Someone else 1%
Don't know/no answer 3%

SC
969 likely voters
MoE: 3.2%

Someone else 0% (but some voters, as this is at 1% in certain crosstabs)
Don't know/no answer 3%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The closest thing to a contemporary generic Senate poll to compare against the actual nominees is also in this release: ""If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?"

KY
Republican 54%
Democratic 38%
Don't know/no answer 8%

ME
Democratic 53%
Republican 40%
Don't know/no answer 7%

SC
Republican 52%
Democratic 44%
Don't know/no answer 5%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

SC is definitely going to be a sleeper state this year and should be a future Democratic target this decade.

No. The last of the ancestral Democrats will fall away, the black population is declining faster in this state than anywhere else bar D.C. and it's an attractive retirement destination (I don't think most of 2020's senior party switchers are going to stay in the Democratic column for more than a presidential cycle). The suburbs are probably also going to be a lot more resistant to large, pro-Democratic swings than in e.g. GA or MI/MN/WI.

South Carolina is occasionally hyped up as on the verge of being there, but I think it is one of the bleaker long-term prospects for Democrats. The state GOP is also particularly competent and less alienating relative to Republican outfits in neighbouring states.

Democrats only have a real chance here in 2020 because Graham is an increasingly weak candidate, Harrison is excellent and Biden doesn't seem a bad fit for the state/has invested in here for a long time.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Triage McGrath —> invest in Harrison

Triage both --> invest in actual swing seat candidates--Ossoff and Greenfield being the most obvious.

I've been bearish on this, but Harrison is one now. Yes, undecided voters probably lean Trump, but if he really does have 48% of likely voters on board already, that is extremely competitive - especially considering that this poll didn't prompt for the Constitution candidate who will be on the ballot and take votes disproportionately from Graham.

The race is lean R. Ossoff's is tilt R and Greenfield's looks to be a pure tossup, but this is not significantly more competitive - at least, not so much more so that SC isn't worth resources. That being said, Greenfield and Harrison are flush with cash already.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

As for Maine, it's indisputably a bad poll for Collins, but I don't think it's the worst result from her perspective. Gideon trails Biden by 5%, although some of that is just a result of her not being as well-known, common to most non-incumbent or low-profile candidates and likely to be gone by election day. Meanwhile, Collins outperforms Trump by 4%.

If the topline is an outlier - and this could easily be so given the dramatic swing it suggests from earlier polls in Maine - then what we're left with is a Collins overperformance in the high single digits (in terms of margin) in a state which probably won't go to Biden by 23%. Unless we get more polls suggesting the Biden margin is closer to Quinnipiac's results than previous polls here suggest (which is still quite plausible given the shoddy nature of many ME polls this cycle), Collins should find herself in a reasonably competitive race as long as she maintains her advantage over Trump.