ME, SC, KY - Quinnipiac: Gideon +12, Tied, McConnell +12

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the big problem for Collins is that Gideon is actually getting more crossover support than she is. 89% of Reps are going for Collins but 93% of Dems are going for Gideon, and Gideon has a 20%+ lead among Indies.

Meanwhile, this is more proof that the SC race is real, considering we haven't gotten much polling but all that we've gotten has been a dead heat.

McGrath is gonna keep it closer than Biden, but yeah, it's clearly not happening unfortunately

[wbrocks67]

Not buying this until backed up by other pollsters. I'd like to be an optimist, but these numbers are too Democratic friendly. Gideon is certainly ahead right now, but not by this margin. And South Carolina is Likely Republican at least. As much as I'd like to see sellout Graham lose, I don't think it will happen.

the DDHQ poll average for SC-Senate is Graham +2.4. The few polls that we've gotten since Summer began have all pointed to a <5 pt race

[wbrocks67]

SC feels a lot like TX-2018 where people wouldn't believe that it was close until they saw it with their own eyes. Even though now it doesn't seem that farfetched, polling indicates its close, and Graham's behavior seems to confirm that.

Meanwhile, with the insane amount of $ that Gideon and Harrison have raised, do we think that they're also just doing better because they've been flooding the airwaves too?

[wbrocks67]

I will say though, there has been no poll that has materialized that confirms Collins is getting any more crossover support than a normal R would get. So that in and of itself seems to prove that she's most likely finished, if Ds all vote the same way.

[wbrocks67]

Harrison tied is a little outlandish IMO, but I don't find the Collins results that implausible. The Senate race results shouldn't deviate much from the presidential, and I find it easy to imagine Biden winning statewide by double digits here.

The problem with this poll is that it does deviate from the presidential. They have Biden up 21, which is really a lot. Gideon underperforming by 9 would make it a tossup with a more normal Biden margin

Exactly. Clearly an awful poll for Collins and I'm not going to dispute that, but we can't ignore the fact this same poll has Gideon underperforming Biden by 9.

Well of course. Collins is going to run ahead of Trump. That's obvious.

This poll isn't inherently anti-GOP though. Collins has a 43/51 favorable here which seems pretty in step with most of the other polls out of Maine we've seen...