I doubt that Collins is going to lose by this much, but this poll provides yet further confirmation of how much trouble she is in at this stage. This also confirms that McConnell's race has never been anything other than Safe R, and that Lindsey Graham is in for the closest race of his career, even though I don't think Harrison is polling that well.
I thought Graham was going to have his closest race yet too, but it looks like it'll be roughly his 2002 margin. And in hindsight, I think all of us should've taken Collin's overperformance of Trump in these Maine polls as a warning shot to her chances. But the thing is, these Maine polls regularly had Biden up big double digits, when he's going to win the state's by single digits. Very hard to poll those rural areas in Maine, they sucked in 2016 too (when Hillary was thought to be safe but only won by 3).
Maine was one of the most stunning results from Election Night, and Collins demonstrated that she still has significant crossover appeal. But I think it has also become obvious that Maine is on a long-term Republican trend. This is not surprising, given that it is one of the whitest, most rural states in the country and has a significant WWC contingent. Biden did not win the state by anywhere near the percentage or margin that Obama did in 2008/2012, and he lost ME-02, which Obama carried twice. I could plausibly see Maine breaking Republican by the next decade at the presidential level.
As for Graham, it's clear that he was greatly underestimated. He ultimately won by the same margin, and with the same county map, that Republicans always win with in South Carolina. Harrison proved unable to overcome the state's deep racial polarization, and nationalizing the race-with his massive fundraising haul-actually
hurt him, as it reminded moderate suburbanites and hardline Tea Partiers alike why they had supported Graham in the past. I still find it funny how Graham praised Joe Cunningham, given that Cunningham lost decisively to Nancy Mace-who could be Graham's eventual successor in the Senate.
