ME, SC, KY - Quinnipiac: Gideon +12, Tied, McConnell +12
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  ME, SC, KY - Quinnipiac: Gideon +12, Tied, McConnell +12
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Author Topic: ME, SC, KY - Quinnipiac: Gideon +12, Tied, McConnell +12  (Read 4833 times)
Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #75 on: September 17, 2020, 04:06:41 PM »

I want to strangle every resistance wine mom who says that people should donate more to McGrath because she’s losing by double digits.

You mean like when Berniecrats insist that Charles Booker would’ve made this a tossup at worst if the money had gone to him instead? Roll Eyes

This is an overdramatization. I'm pretty sure most Berniecrats don't unironically believe this (including the vast majority of those on Atlas) - support for him in that primary was more about ensuring another victory for progressives in Democratic primaries and because Booker seemed like the better/more compelling candidate in general.
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We Live in Black and White
SvenTC
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« Reply #76 on: September 17, 2020, 04:25:06 PM »

Holy f**k South Carolina may actually be a thing. Both of the other numbers here look plausible, so I can only think the SC numbers are as well.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #77 on: September 18, 2020, 01:15:16 PM »

The party identification numbers in the SC poll represent a seismic shift in voters from Republican to independent compared to exit polls four years ago. A shift is reasonable, but one that massive needs confirmation before I'll believe it. I'm willing to say Harrison has a chance, but I'll be pleasantly surprised if he pulls it off. He is running a good campaign tho.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #78 on: November 04, 2020, 06:37:21 PM »

lol.

Quinnipiac.
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #79 on: November 04, 2020, 07:02:33 PM »


 Smiley She’s also Dean Heller in 2018, Barbara Comstock in 2018, Mark Kirk in 2016, and Pete Sessions in 2018.  Smiley
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #80 on: November 06, 2020, 04:15:10 PM »

Such garbage. Never going to accept polling as a valid industry ever again. File for bankruptcy
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #81 on: November 06, 2020, 04:45:31 PM »

Pure garbage in, garbage out. Not even worth trying to adjust... "well if you swing that one 20 points, that one 10 points, and that one 8 points, they look OK."
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BigSerg
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« Reply #82 on: November 06, 2020, 05:34:32 PM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #83 on: November 06, 2020, 05:39:28 PM »

They thought Gideon would get 60% of the vote
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #84 on: November 08, 2020, 10:22:03 AM »


Oops.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #85 on: November 08, 2020, 10:26:19 AM »

I doubt that Collins is going to lose by this much, but this poll provides yet further confirmation of how much trouble she is in at this stage. This also confirms that McConnell's race has never been anything other than Safe R, and that Lindsey Graham is in for the closest race of his career, even though I don't think Harrison is polling that well.

I thought Graham was going to have his closest race yet too, but it looks like it'll be roughly his 2002 margin. And in hindsight, I think all of us should've taken Collin's overperformance of Trump in these Maine polls as a warning shot to her chances. But the thing is, these Maine polls regularly had Biden up big double digits, when he's going to win the state's by single digits. Very hard to poll those rural areas in Maine, they sucked in 2016 too (when Hillary was thought to be safe but only won by 3).
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #86 on: November 08, 2020, 10:39:21 AM »

I doubt that Collins is going to lose by this much, but this poll provides yet further confirmation of how much trouble she is in at this stage. This also confirms that McConnell's race has never been anything other than Safe R, and that Lindsey Graham is in for the closest race of his career, even though I don't think Harrison is polling that well.

I thought Graham was going to have his closest race yet too, but it looks like it'll be roughly his 2002 margin. And in hindsight, I think all of us should've taken Collin's overperformance of Trump in these Maine polls as a warning shot to her chances. But the thing is, these Maine polls regularly had Biden up big double digits, when he's going to win the state's by single digits. Very hard to poll those rural areas in Maine, they sucked in 2016 too (when Hillary was thought to be safe but only won by 3).

Maine was one of the most stunning results from Election Night, and Collins demonstrated that she still has significant crossover appeal. But I think it has also become obvious that Maine is on a long-term Republican trend. This is not surprising, given that it is one of the whitest, most rural states in the country and has a significant WWC contingent. Biden did not win the state by anywhere near the percentage or margin that Obama did in 2008/2012, and he lost ME-02, which Obama carried twice. I could plausibly see Maine breaking Republican by the next decade at the presidential level.

As for Graham, it's clear that he was greatly underestimated. He ultimately won by the same margin, and with the same county map, that Republicans always win with in South Carolina. Harrison proved unable to overcome the state's deep racial polarization, and nationalizing the race-with his massive fundraising haul-actually hurt him, as it reminded moderate suburbanites and hardline Tea Partiers alike why they had supported Graham in the past. I still find it funny how Graham praised Joe Cunningham, given that Cunningham lost decisively to Nancy Mace-who could be Graham's eventual successor in the Senate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #87 on: November 08, 2020, 12:23:41 PM »

The only reason why Angus King is in Olympia Snowe seat is that she retired, D's would have had the same problem with Snowe as they do with Collins had she been renominated by Rs in 2012
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