ME, SC, KY - Quinnipiac: Gideon +12, Tied, McConnell +12

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Triage McGrath —> invest in Harrison

Triage both --> invest in actual swing seat candidates--Ossoff and Greenfield being the most obvious.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Triage McGrath —> invest in Harrison

Triage both --> invest in actual swing seat candidates--Ossoff and Greenfield being the most obvious.

I've been bearish on this, but Harrison is one now. Yes, undecided voters probably lean Trump, but if he really does have 48% of likely voters on board already, that is extremely competitive - especially considering that this poll didn't prompt for the Constitution candidate who will be on the ballot and take votes disproportionately from Graham.

The race is lean R. Ossoff's is tilt R and Greenfield's looks to be a pure tossup, but this is not significantly more competitive - at least, not so much more so that SC isn't worth resources. That being said, Greenfield and Harrison are flush with cash already.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

As for Maine, it's indisputably a bad poll for Collins, but I don't think it's the worst result from her perspective. Gideon trails Biden by 5%, although some of that is just a result of her not being as well-known, common to most non-incumbent or low-profile candidates and likely to be gone by election day. Meanwhile, Collins outperforms Trump by 4%.

If the topline is an outlier - and this could easily be so given the dramatic swing it suggests from earlier polls in Maine - then what we're left with is a Collins overperformance in the high single digits (in terms of margin) in a state which probably won't go to Biden by 23%. Unless we get more polls suggesting the Biden margin is closer to Quinnipiac's results than previous polls here suggest (which is still quite plausible given the shoddy nature of many ME polls this cycle), Collins should find herself in a reasonably competitive race as long as she maintains her advantage over Trump.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Triage McGrath —> invest in Harrison

Triage both --> invest in actual swing seat candidates--Ossoff and Greenfield being the most obvious.

I've been bearish on this, but Harrison is one now. Yes, undecided voters probably lean Trump, but if he really does have 48% of likely voters on board already, that is extremely competitive - especially considering that this poll didn't prompt for the Constitution candidate who will be on the ballot and take votes disproportionately from Graham.

The race is lean R. Ossoff's is tilt R and Greenfield's looks to be a pure tossup, but this is not significantly more competitive - at least, not so much more so that SC isn't worth resources. That being said, Greenfield and Harrison are flush with cash already.

I don't buy it. Perhaps I believe too strongly in demographic fundamentals and think the number of ticket splitters is approaching zero, but Harrison actually getting more votes in SC than Graham seems utterly implausible to me. Without Harrison breaking through in urban Upstate SC, the numbers just don't work.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Big doubt on SC but I want to believe

[SnowLabrador]

Big doubt on SC but I want to believe

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Maine Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2020-09-14

Summary: D: 54%, R: 42%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2020-09-14

Summary: D: 41%, R: 53%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: South Carolina Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2020-09-14

Summary: D: 48%, R: 48%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://poll.qu.edu/kentucky/release-detail?ReleaseID=3673

Maine
Gideon (D) - 54
Collins (R) - 42

South Carolina
Harrison (D) - 48
Graham (R) - 48

Kentucky
McGrath (D) - 41
McConnell (R) - 53

OC has been the only one here who has said Harrison could win. The resistance moms need to switch  their donations from KY to SC.

[Tiger08]

SC feels a lot like TX-2018 where people wouldn't believe that it was close until they saw it with their own eyes. Even though now it doesn't seem that farfetched, polling indicates its close, and Graham's behavior seems to confirm that.

Meanwhile, with the insane amount of $ that Gideon and Harrison have raised, do we think that they're also just doing better because they've been flooding the airwaves too?

I don't know about SC being similar to TX in 2018. While Graham does seem to be widely reviled, and an especially good target because he animates the left and the right is largely apathetic about him, I can't get over the racial politics of South Carolina.

I just do not see how Harrison is able to assemble a coalition that gets him 48% of the vote in SC. I think the only spoiler/outside chance is if the Constitution party nominee somehow eats up a sizable share of the vote -- 5-10%, leaving Harrison an outside shot with mid-40% at winning.

The racial politics are changing. Largely white areas like the Charleston suburbs are becoming less Republican. Perhaps instead of Texas, it’s better to think of SC as the next Georgia: Solid black Democratic vote, increasingly less Republican white suburban vote, and rapid population growth concentrated in (sub)urban areas. True, there’s no Atlanta metro equivalent or anything. But over time, as the state continues to grow and change, I can see it being the next state in the sun belt to fall after AZ/TX/GA/NC. As for now, Harrison’s shot depends on a solidly Democratic national environment (looks likely) coupled with an energized anti-Graham vote in the state along with a Republican vote that largely ranges from apathetic to antipathetic towards Graham. That ad of Graham bashing Trump and praising Biden sums it up: Diehard MAGA people don’t trust Graham, and Democrats hate him for his sucking up to Trump. Could be a perfect storm.

I don't know if it will "fall," but SC will probably tighten over the next few years. Graham is a good target for Democrats here. Harrison is running a VERY smart campaign here. He has made it all about his inspiring personal story and Graham's flip-flopping. Graham is uniquely weak because a lot of the hard right voters in Greenville and Spartanburg view him as a RINO. The moderate suburbanites near Charleston, Fort Mill, Greenville, and Columbia who once liked him now think he is too close to Trump. Harrison has exploited that weakness of Graham very well (including using clips from Tucker and Hannity in his TV ads to turn conservatives against Graham) in order to turn this into a competitive race. Making this a campaign about political positions would not succeed for a Dem here, and nationalizing the race would only help Graham. My final prediction is Graham by 3-5. I don't know how Harrison can get those last couple percent he would need to win. Watch for Greenville County (plenty of college ed whites AND staunch conservatives who think Graham is a RINO) to be closer than ever before (maybe around 44% Harrison).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SC feels a lot like TX-2018 where people wouldn't believe that it was close until they saw it with their own eyes. Even though now it doesn't seem that farfetched, polling indicates its close, and Graham's behavior seems to confirm that.

Meanwhile, with the insane amount of $ that Gideon and Harrison have raised, do we think that they're also just doing better because they've been flooding the airwaves too?

I don't know about SC being similar to TX in 2018. While Graham does seem to be widely reviled, and an especially good target because he animates the left and the right is largely apathetic about him, I can't get over the racial politics of South Carolina.

I just do not see how Harrison is able to assemble a coalition that gets him 48% of the vote in SC. I think the only spoiler/outside chance is if the Constitution party nominee somehow eats up a sizable share of the vote -- 5-10%, leaving Harrison an outside shot with mid-40% at winning.

The racial politics are changing. Largely white areas like the Charleston suburbs are becoming less Republican. Perhaps instead of Texas, it’s better to think of SC as the next Georgia: Solid black Democratic vote, increasingly less Republican white suburban vote, and rapid population growth concentrated in (sub)urban areas. True, there’s no Atlanta metro equivalent or anything. But over time, as the state continues to grow and change, I can see it being the next state in the sun belt to fall after AZ/TX/GA/NC. As for now, Harrison’s shot depends on a solidly Democratic national environment (looks likely) coupled with an energized anti-Graham vote in the state along with a Republican vote that largely ranges from apathetic to antipathetic towards Graham. That ad of Graham bashing Trump and praising Biden sums it up: Diehard MAGA people don’t trust Graham, and Democrats hate him for his sucking up to Trump. Could be a perfect storm.

I don't know if it will "fall," but SC will probably tighten over the next few years. Graham is a good target for Democrats here. Harrison is running a VERY smart campaign here. He has made it all about his inspiring personal story and Graham's flip-flopping. Graham is uniquely weak because a lot of the hard right voters in Greenville and Spartanburg view him as a RINO. The moderate suburbanites near Charleston, Fort Mill, Greenville, and Columbia who once liked him now think he is too close to Trump. Harrison has exploited that weakness of Graham very well (including using clips from Tucker and Hannity in his TV ads to turn conservatives against Graham) in order to turn this into a competitive race. Making this a campaign about political positions would not succeed for a Dem here, and nationalizing the race would only help Graham. My final prediction is Graham by 3-5. I don't know how Harrison can get those last couple percent he would need to win. Watch for Greenville County (plenty of college ed whites AND staunch conservatives who think Graham is a RINO) to be closer than ever before (maybe around 44% Harrison).

Senate Rs are wasting time by voting on Judicial nominees instead of a jobs and stimulus package that's why Cornyn, Graham,are still endangered

[Yoda]

That Lieberman endorsement really turned things around for Collins, didn't it?

Right? If anything, it fired up democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isnt an officeholder,  he was a businessman turned Prez and he never learned the art of compromising, like Nixon with EPA and Bush W on minimum wage,: consequently,  the 1200 stimulus package should of been passed with 2T before Conventions, but Elaine Chao works for Trump,  whom is wife of Leader McConnell. McConnell knows the Heroes act will get Romney, Collins and Tillis support, it was filibustered

[DaleCooper]

Triage McGrath —> invest in Harrison

Triage both --> invest in actual swing seat candidates--Ossoff and Greenfield being the most obvious.

I've been bearish on this, but Harrison is one now. Yes, undecided voters probably lean Trump, but if he really does have 48% of likely voters on board already, that is extremely competitive - especially considering that this poll didn't prompt for the Constitution candidate who will be on the ballot and take votes disproportionately from Graham.

The race is lean R. Ossoff's is tilt R and Greenfield's looks to be a pure tossup, but this is not significantly more competitive - at least, not so much more so that SC isn't worth resources. That being said, Greenfield and Harrison are flush with cash already.

I don't buy it. Perhaps I believe too strongly in demographic fundamentals and think the number of ticket splitters is approaching zero, but Harrison actually getting more votes in SC than Graham seems utterly implausible to me. Without Harrison breaking through in urban Upstate SC, the numbers just don't work.

I'm skeptical too, but what are the chances of a higher-than-normal percentage of Constitution Party voters now that the word on Talk Radio/Fox is that Graham tried to sabotage Trump? Still a long shot, for sure, but it's the most plausible way I could see Harrison winning. That combined with Libertarian/Green voters at the Presidential level selecting Harrison, which they probably will.

[MT Treasurer]

Lol, Collins is gonna get Blached.

So you’re saying Trump's going to lose Titanium D ME by 30 and not the 21 points that this poll suggests? Because Collins is outperforming him by 9 points (in terms of margin).

The ME numbers are obviously garbage, as anyone with a modicum of integrity and common sense will be able to tell you. The SC and KY might be a little too D-friendly, but are generally pretty believable (especially SC) and in line with the environment and fundamentals of those states, certainly more so than ME.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol, Collins is gonna get Blached.

So you’re saying Trump's going to lose Titanium D ME by 30 and not the 21 points that this poll suggests? Because Collins is outperforming him by 9 points (in terms of margin).

The ME numbers are obviously garbage, as anyone with a modicum of integrity and common sense will be able to tell you. The SC and KY might be a little too D-friendly, but are generally pretty believable (especially SC) and in line with the environment and fundamentals of those states, certainly more so than ME.

Collins will get blanched, I repeat this, as well, Gideon, Hickenlooper can get to 60 in a 350 landslide due to fact ME 2 isnt R trending anymore

Clinton, Gore, Kerry and Obama won ME 2 and WI, and WI went R in 2010 due to Doyle scandals. Making a 269 unnecessary

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The other thing is that Harrison may turn out to be the Beto O’Rourke of this cycle.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The other thing is that Harrison may turn out to be the Beto O’Rourke of this cycle.

Yes, and Woody Myers is within 5 pts of Holcomb, just like John Gregg almost won in 2016. AZ, CO, ME, NC and SC will give Ds the clear majority without GA

[Left Wing]

I want to strangle every resistance wine mom who says that people should donate more to McGrath because she’s losing by double digits.

[Hope For A New Era]

Hoping Harrison pulls a Beto-style 5-point poll overperformance here! This better not be a Missouri-in-2016 nothingburger.

[ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed]

Too bad McGrath wasn’t defeated in the primary ...

Booker would have lost too. The only candidates with a chance (Adkins, maybe Jones, maybe even Steve Beshear) didn’t run.

As a Kentuckian, I am begging Democrats nationwide and the national party to triage my state and give every dollar that you would have given to McGrath to Harrison instead. He actually is a good candidate who actually has a chance. And as much as I would love to oust McConnell, it’s not happening. All chance of that was lost when Schumer and the DSCC went all-in on McGrath for some baffling reason. And ousting Graham is the next best thing. Plus, take back the Senate and you at least strip McConnell of his power as Majority Leader.

Steve Beshear? As in the same Steve Beshear who lost by 13% to McConnell in 1996? He would have had zero chance.

[Left Wing]

Too bad McGrath wasn’t defeated in the primary ...

Booker would have lost too. The only candidates with a chance (Adkins, maybe Jones, maybe even Steve Beshear) didn’t run.

As a Kentuckian, I am begging Democrats nationwide and the national party to triage my state and give every dollar that you would have given to McGrath to Harrison instead. He actually is a good candidate who actually has a chance. And as much as I would love to oust McConnell, it’s not happening. All chance of that was lost when Schumer and the DSCC went all-in on McGrath for some baffling reason. And ousting Graham is the next best thing. Plus, take back the Senate and you at least strip McConnell of his power as Majority Leader.

Steve Beshear? As in the same Steve Beshear who lost by 13% to McConnell in 1996? He would have had zero chance.

He wasn't governor then and Mitch was much more popular

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I want to strangle every resistance wine mom who says that people should donate more to McGrath because she’s losing by double digits.

You mean like when Berniecrats insist that Charles Booker would’ve made this a tossup at worst if the money had gone to him instead?

[Left Wing]

I want to strangle every resistance wine mom who says that people should donate more to McGrath because she’s losing by double digits.

You mean like when Berniecrats insist that Charles Booker would’ve made this a tossup at worst if the money had gone to him instead?

I saw a rose twitter account the other day unironically argue PJS had a chance because WV hasn’t re-elected a Republican in over a 100 years