ME, SC, KY - Quinnipiac: Gideon +12, Tied, McConnell +12

[politicallefty]

Don't tempt me like this. I have no words for the idea of Trump and Graham both going down on the same night.

[tagimaucia]

I guess I just don't have enough of an imagination but its really hard for me to picture a hypothetical Trump/Harrison voter in my mind.

[libertpaulian]

SC is definitely going to be a sleeper state this year and should be a future Democratic target this decade.

[President Johnson]

Not buying this until backed up by other pollsters. I'd like to be an optimist, but these numbers are too Democratic friendly. Gideon is certainly ahead right now, but not by this margin. And South Carolina is Likely Republican at least. As much as I'd like to see sellout Graham lose, I don't think it will happen.

[DrScholl]

Graham has seemed quite concerned about Harrison lately, so these numbers explain why. Graham is probably seeing something in his internal polling that is troubling.

[xavier110]

Harrison tied is a little outlandish IMO, but I don't find the Collins results that implausible. The Senate race results shouldn't deviate much from the presidential, and I find it easy to imagine Biden winning statewide by double digits here.

[wbrocks67]

Not buying this until backed up by other pollsters. I'd like to be an optimist, but these numbers are too Democratic friendly. Gideon is certainly ahead right now, but not by this margin. And South Carolina is Likely Republican at least. As much as I'd like to see sellout Graham lose, I don't think it will happen.

the DDHQ poll average for SC-Senate is Graham +2.4. The few polls that we've gotten since Summer began have all pointed to a <5 pt race

[wbrocks67]

SC feels a lot like TX-2018 where people wouldn't believe that it was close until they saw it with their own eyes. Even though now it doesn't seem that farfetched, polling indicates its close, and Graham's behavior seems to confirm that.

Meanwhile, with the insane amount of $ that Gideon and Harrison have raised, do we think that they're also just doing better because they've been flooding the airwaves too?

[New York En Marche!]

Harrison tied is a little outlandish IMO, but I don't find the Collins results that implausible. The Senate race results shouldn't deviate much from the presidential, and I find it easy to imagine Biden winning statewide by double digits here.

The problem with this poll is that it does deviate from the presidential. They have Biden up 21, which is really a lot. Gideon underperforming by 9 would make it a tossup with a more normal Biden margin

[Xing]

Given the presidential numbers, these are all too favorable for the Democrats, but it's still very bad for Collins to only be overperforming Trump by 3.

[Tender Branson]

The Harrison-Graham race reminds me of the Ford-Corker race in 2006 ...

[wbrocks67]

I will say though, there has been no poll that has materialized that confirms Collins is getting any more crossover support than a normal R would get. So that in and of itself seems to prove that she's most likely finished, if Ds all vote the same way.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Susan Collins is Margaret Chase Smith in 1972

Also, this ↴

Triage McGrath —> invest in Harrison

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

SC is definitely going to be a sleeper state this year and should be a future Democratic target this decade.

No. The last of the ancestral Democrats will fall away, the black population is declining faster in this state than anywhere else bar D.C. and it's an attractive retirement destination (I don't think most of 2020's senior party switchers are going to stay in the Democratic column for more than a presidential cycle). The suburbs are probably also going to be a lot more resistant to large, pro-Democratic swings than in e.g. GA or MI/MN/WI.

South Carolina is occasionally hyped up as on the verge of being there, but I think it is one of the bleaker long-term prospects for Democrats. The state GOP is also particularly competent and less alienating relative to Republican outfits in neighbouring states.

Democrats only have a real chance here in 2020 because Graham is an increasingly weak candidate, Harrison is excellent and Biden doesn't seem a bad fit for the state/has invested in here for a long time.

[xavier110]

SC feels a lot like TX-2018 where people wouldn't believe that it was close until they saw it with their own eyes. Even though now it doesn't seem that farfetched, polling indicates its close, and Graham's behavior seems to confirm that.

Meanwhile, with the insane amount of $ that Gideon and Harrison have raised, do we think that they're also just doing better because they've been flooding the airwaves too?

I don't know about SC being similar to TX in 2018. While Graham does seem to be widely reviled, and an especially good target because he animates the left and the right is largely apathetic about him, I can't get over the racial politics of South Carolina.

I just do not see how Harrison is able to assemble a coalition that gets him 48% of the vote in SC. I think the only spoiler/outside chance is if the Constitution party nominee somehow eats up a sizable share of the vote -- 5-10%, leaving Harrison an outside shot with mid-40% at winning.

[Alben Barkley]

Too bad McGrath wasn’t defeated in the primary ...

Booker would have lost too. The only candidates with a chance (Adkins, maybe Jones, maybe even Steve Beshear) didn’t run.

As a Kentuckian, I am begging Democrats nationwide and the national party to triage my state and give every dollar that you would have given to McGrath to Harrison instead. He actually is a good candidate who actually has a chance. And as much as I would love to oust McConnell, it’s not happening. All chance of that was lost when Schumer and the DSCC went all-in on McGrath for some baffling reason. And ousting Graham is the next best thing. Plus, take back the Senate and you at least strip McConnell of his power as Majority Leader.

[KaiserDave]

Triage McGrath —> invest in Harrison

[Alben Barkley]

SC feels a lot like TX-2018 where people wouldn't believe that it was close until they saw it with their own eyes. Even though now it doesn't seem that farfetched, polling indicates its close, and Graham's behavior seems to confirm that.

Meanwhile, with the insane amount of $ that Gideon and Harrison have raised, do we think that they're also just doing better because they've been flooding the airwaves too?

I don't know about SC being similar to TX in 2018. While Graham does seem to be widely reviled, and an especially good target because he animates the left and the right is largely apathetic about him, I can't get over the racial politics of South Carolina.

I just do not see how Harrison is able to assemble a coalition that gets him 48% of the vote in SC. I think the only spoiler/outside chance is if the Constitution party nominee somehow eats up a sizable share of the vote -- 5-10%, leaving Harrison an outside shot with mid-40% at winning.

The racial politics are changing. Largely white areas like the Charleston suburbs are becoming less Republican. Perhaps instead of Texas, it’s better to think of SC as the next Georgia: Solid black Democratic vote, increasingly less Republican white suburban vote, and rapid population growth concentrated in (sub)urban areas. True, there’s no Atlanta metro equivalent or anything. But over time, as the state continues to grow and change, I can see it being the next state in the sun belt to fall after AZ/TX/GA/NC. As for now, Harrison’s shot depends on a solidly Democratic national environment (looks likely) coupled with an energized anti-Graham vote in the state along with a Republican vote that largely ranges from apathetic to antipathetic towards Graham. That ad of Graham bashing Trump and praising Biden sums it up: Diehard MAGA people don’t trust Graham, and Democrats hate him for his sucking up to Trump. Could be a perfect storm.

[DrScholl]

It's possible that Trump supporters could just leave the Senate blank. Not all of them feel as if they have to vote all the way down the ballot or as if they owe other GOP candidates their votes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This should finish Collins off, no one other than MT Treasurer believes that Collins will win

[SenatorCouzens]

Harrison tied is a little outlandish IMO, but I don't find the Collins results that implausible. The Senate race results shouldn't deviate much from the presidential, and I find it easy to imagine Biden winning statewide by double digits here.

The problem with this poll is that it does deviate from the presidential. They have Biden up 21, which is really a lot. Gideon underperforming by 9 would make it a tossup with a more normal Biden margin

Exactly. Clearly an awful poll for Collins and I'm not going to dispute that, but we can't ignore the fact this same poll has Gideon underperforming Biden by 9.

[wbrocks67]

Harrison tied is a little outlandish IMO, but I don't find the Collins results that implausible. The Senate race results shouldn't deviate much from the presidential, and I find it easy to imagine Biden winning statewide by double digits here.

The problem with this poll is that it does deviate from the presidential. They have Biden up 21, which is really a lot. Gideon underperforming by 9 would make it a tossup with a more normal Biden margin

Exactly. Clearly an awful poll for Collins and I'm not going to dispute that, but we can't ignore the fact this same poll has Gideon underperforming Biden by 9.

Well of course. Collins is going to run ahead of Trump. That's obvious.

This poll isn't inherently anti-GOP though. Collins has a 43/51 favorable here which seems pretty in step with most of the other polls out of Maine we've seen...

[SenatorCouzens]

Harrison tied is a little outlandish IMO, but I don't find the Collins results that implausible. The Senate race results shouldn't deviate much from the presidential, and I find it easy to imagine Biden winning statewide by double digits here.

The problem with this poll is that it does deviate from the presidential. They have Biden up 21, which is really a lot. Gideon underperforming by 9 would make it a tossup with a more normal Biden margin

Exactly. Clearly an awful poll for Collins and I'm not going to dispute that, but we can't ignore the fact this same poll has Gideon underperforming Biden by 9.

Well of course. Collins is going to run ahead of Trump. That's obvious.

This poll isn't inherently anti-GOP though. Collins has a 43/51 favorable here which seems pretty in step with most of the other polls out of Maine we've seen...

Fair enough. But I don't think anyone is saying that "of course" Collins margin against Gideon is going to be NINE points better than Trump's against Biden. It's a silver lining for Collins in what is a very bad poll for her indeed. If Collins somehow improves and ekes out a victory on election day (unlikely) her ability to run not only ahead, but well ahead, of Trump will (of course) be the reason.

[Landslide Lyndon]

That Lieberman endorsement really turned things around for Collins, didn't it?

[Calthrina950]

I doubt that Collins is going to lose by this much, but this poll provides yet further confirmation of how much trouble she is in at this stage. This also confirms that McConnell's race has never been anything other than Safe R, and that Lindsey Graham is in for the closest race of his career, even though I don't think Harrison is polling that well.