It appears the MoE of 4.38% is for the statewide sample (if I am interpreting the Tweet correctly).
Margins are pre-rounding, hence the discrepancy between the UTGOV margin and the UTGOV topline.
MoE: 4.38%
https://twitter.com/BenWinslow/status/1306257899488862209Gubernatorial:Cottam (L) 5%
Duerden (Independent American Party) 3%
Other 3%
Undecided 15%
The Independent American Party should not be confused with the
Judean People's Front (far right) American Independent Party.
Attorney general : Reyes (R) 46%
Skordas (D) 25%
Bautista (L) (no, not that one) 5%
Other 0% (no voters)
Undecided 23%
Reyes won his 2016 race 65.4%-25.1%.
Weirdly, the statewide sample is listed in the Tweet as 500 but on 538 as 2000. I assume there's a mistake in the Tweet as the districts have 500 each so presumably sample sizes have been scaled down by a factor of four.
