Japan General Discussion: You Gotta Be Kishid-ing Me

[jaichind]

With pretty much all the votes in No wins 50.6 to 49.4

[PSOL]

Japan to help cover IVF costs in attempt to avert demographic crisis

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japan-official-slams-donald-trump-dictatorship-then-quickly-deletes-it/

It was barely noticed even in Japan this week, but for one brief moment, a Japanese official did something completely out of national character: He expressed his opinion.


"A sitting president making accusations of election fraud and insisting he will 'never give up.' Am I the only one seeing this and thinking, what kind of dictatorship is this?" Japanese Land Minister Kazuyoshi Akaba wrote on Twitter, lambasting President Trump's refusal to concede the election and wondering: "Where has our role model for democracy gone?"

After a backlash on Twitter from Japan's small but vocal niche of right-wing nationalists, he quickly deleted his burst of frankness.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japan-official-slams-donald-trump-dictatorship-then-quickly-deletes-it/

It was barely noticed even in Japan this week, but for one brief moment, a Japanese official did something completely out of national character: He expressed his opinion.


"A sitting president making accusations of election fraud and insisting he will 'never give up.' Am I the only one seeing this and thinking, what kind of dictatorship is this?" Japanese Land Minister Kazuyoshi Akaba wrote on Twitter, lambasting President Trump's refusal to concede the election and wondering: "Where has our role model for democracy gone?"

After a backlash on Twitter from Japan's small but vocal niche of right-wing nationalists, he quickly deleted his burst of frankness.

Interesting this came from a Komeito politician and not an LDP one.

[jaichind]

PNHK "The Party to Protect the People from NHK" will rename itself as "Golf Party (The Party to Protect the People from NHK)".  They want to add scrapping the Golf tax to the anti-NHK agenda.  I have no idea how to label this party since they have no official English name so I guess I will stick with PNHK

[jaichind]

SDP votes to merge into CDP.  SDP leader 福島 瑞穂(Fukushima Mizuho) who oppose this move will form a rump SDP.  The 3 other SDP MPs will merge with pro-merger SDP into CDP.  Not clear what will happen to the various local prefecture SDP branches. Especially critical are the 大分(Ōita), 宮崎
(Miyazaki), 鹿児島(Kagoshima), and 沖縄(Okinawa) branches where the local SDP have some strength.  Most likely they will mostly merge into CDP.

[Lord Halifax]

SDP votes to merge into CDP.  SDP leader 福島 瑞穂(Fukushima Mizuho) who oppose this move will form a rump SDP.  The 3 other SDP MPs will merge with pro-merger SDP into CDP.  Not clear what will happen to the various local prefecture SDP branches. Especially critical are the 大分(Ōita) and 沖縄(Okinawa) branches where the local SDP have some strength.  Most likely they will mostly merge into CDP.

Could you give us an overview of the situation on the Japanese left now? How many parties are there and how many of them are relevant?

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, given all those who support this move a rump SDP is likely to be so small as to be ultimately unviable. It would be a bit of a bathetic end for a once proud party.

[jaichind]

The concept of rump SDP of course is pretty funny since even before the current split it is already a rump version of the SDP of the 1990s which in turn is a rump version of the SDP of the 1980s.

So on the Japan Center-Left

CDP - main Center-Left party.  Main appeal to urban middle class and some support with the old labor union Rengo vote.

Rump DPP - most likely can win 4-5 district seats based on the personal vote of key MPS and get to 2%-3% PR vote wise based on part of the old Rengo union vote.  This means their PR vote are wasted in Lower House elections but can perhaps get a seat in Upper House.  Can stay relevant by forming alliances with the CDP on the Left and JRP on the Right.  Once its key MPs leave the political scene I foresee this party most likely merging into JRP.

RS - Left populist party centered around anti-nulear activist 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō).  Centered around the Greater Tokyo area. I think the 2019 Upper House election might have been its peak since it had novel appeal.  Will find it hard to do well in Lower House district seats but I guess can get a few seats on the PR section

Rump SDP - I think now their vote will fall to 1% which makes them irrelevant

JCP - Still good for around 8% of the vote and critical for CDP to have a chance in district seats by standing down in marginal seats in return for CDP support in LDP stronghold seats for JCP to run.  JCP is not really interested in power but more interested in getting their message out even if their message will never be in the majority.

[warandwar]

SDP votes to merge into CDP.  SDP leader 福島 瑞穂(Fukushima Mizuho) who oppose this move will form a rump SDP.  The 3 other SDP MPs will merge with pro-merger SDP into CDP.  Not clear what will happen to the various local prefecture SDP branches. Especially critical are the 大分(Ōita), 宮崎
(Miyazaki), 鹿児島(Kagoshima), and 沖縄(Okinawa) branches where the local SDP have some strength.  Most likely they will mostly merge into CDP.

End of an era. Japan's main left current from the ANPO protests onwards. 😥

[NewYorkExpress]

Documents showing that Shinzo Abe may have broken the law by paying for part of the expenses of a dinner party for his supporters have been published.

Hotel documents show former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe's camp paid part of the expenses for a dinner party held for his supporters the night before an annual cherry blossom viewing party, NHK public TV said on Monday, citing unnamed sources.

Politicians in Japan are strictly forbidden to give anything to constituents that could be construed as a gift. The rule is so strict that one cabinet minister quit in 2014 after distributing paper fans during the summer.

In May, about 660 lawyers and scholars filed a complaint with Tokyo prosecutors seeking an investigation into whether Abe and two executives of his political support group broke campaign and funding laws by subsidising the attendance of backers at the reception in 2018, Kyodo news agency then reported.

[jaichind]

Documents showing that Shinzo Abe may have broken the law by paying for part of the expenses of a dinner party for his supporters have been published.

Hotel documents show former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe's camp paid part of the expenses for a dinner party held for his supporters the night before an annual cherry blossom viewing party, NHK public TV said on Monday, citing unnamed sources.

Politicians in Japan are strictly forbidden to give anything to constituents that could be construed as a gift. The rule is so strict that one cabinet minister quit in 2014 after distributing paper fans during the summer.

In May, about 660 lawyers and scholars filed a complaint with Tokyo prosecutors seeking an investigation into whether Abe and two executives of his political support group broke campaign and funding laws by subsidising the attendance of backers at the reception in 2018, Kyodo news agency then reported.

逮捕安倍 or Arrest Abe is now one of the top google searches in Japan.  BTW, I think this is the Japan Deep state bureaucracy striking back at Abe  for Abe's maneuver earlier this year of trying to extend the term of  his crony 黒川 弘務(Kurokawa Hiromu)  as the head of the Tokyo High Public Prosecutor’s Office.  The Tokyo University Law School alumni is very powerful but it is hard for them to strike at Abe while he is in office.  Once he is out of office it is a different story.  The "crime" Abe is being accused here is is minor, trivial and a technicality.  But it seems the Japan Deep State wants to use this to get some revenge for Abe trying to break with unwritten rules.

[jaichind]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/29/national/politics-diplomacy/january-snap-election-corona/

Looks like given continued COVID-19 problems Suga has accepted that the general election will be in the Fall after the Tokyo Olympics.  That will most likely help CDP since unlike 2014 and 2017 the opposition would not be caught off guard by a snap election.  CDP has a major funding deficit with LDP but knowing when the election will be will help the CDP shift resources and form alliance in time for the election.


Also, it seems LDP will crack down on the double candidacy rule for the Lower House elections

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/17/national/politics-diplomacy/ldp-double-candidacy-rule-upsets-party-members/

The idea is that in Lower House elections a candidate can run on both a district and PR slate and a losing district candidate can still win on PR as a "best loser".  Since the LDP in 2012 2014 and 2017 won landslides in the district seat that left a lot of open PR seats for district loser to win in.  In fact in 2012 2014 and 2017 almost call LDP candidates "won" by being election as a MP either in the district vote or PR slate.

Now the LDP wants to introduce tighter rules that says if you lose 2 district elections in a row you cannot run on the PR slate a third time to get revived.  The idea is the LDP is a party of winners and not losers.  The fact is there are around 30-35 district seats where the LDP will find it hard to win.  Perhaps the rule should be "if you cannot exceed the LDP+KP PR vote 2 elections in a row in a losing effort you cannot run a third time on the PR slate."  That way LDP MPs that are running in districts with a strong anti-LDP lean are not penalized unfairly.

[jaichind]

Latest polls show Suga's honeymoon is ending

Suga cabinet Approval/Disapproval has approval heading down to 50 and most likely lower


LDP support (green) is still higher than early 2020 but clearly lower than when Suga took over


CDP (light blue) support steady while JRP (light green) summer surge is clearly over


Approval for government handling of COVID-19 heading negative again


With national elections now clearly being in late 2021 the situation can only get worse from here for Suga unless he can create an economic resurgence in 2021 as well as getting COVID-19 under control plus a successful Tokyo Olympics.  All of them seem less and less likely.  As a result Suga, it seems, will rush out a third economic stimulus to try to jack up the economy in 2021.  Suga is running with COVID-19 and 2019 sales tax increase as a headwind.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though the LDP/Suga numbers in his immediate honeymoon were surely unsustainable?

(ie some reversion to the norm is only to be expected)

[PSOL]

The Olympics this season would turn out worse than what the aftermath of the Winter season in Sochi, Russia. Unless the LDP want to utterly destroy their presence in both Tokyo and its surrounding environs permanently, they should just cancel it to conserve very probable long-term losses.

[jaichind]

Though the LDP/Suga numbers in his immediate honeymoon were surely unsustainable?

(ie some reversion to the norm is only to be expected)

Abe's honeymoon after his 2012 election victory lasted for over a year.  Part of that is because the DPJ was still imploding throughout 2013.  This time around while CDP does not seems to be a party that can oust LDP like DPJ looked like in the 2003-2009 period it is at least seen as credible within the Center-Left voting bloc so Suga's honeymoon was clearly not going to last.  Suga should have gone for an election in Nov or Dec 2020 but I guess with COVID-19 that is not an option.  I gut feeling is the 2021 Loser House election will see LDP-KP keep their majority but will lose seats and lose the LDP-KP 2/3 majority they had held since 2012.

[jaichind]

It seems that LDP MP in the 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd district will likely be removed as an MP if he is found guilty in a vote buying case involving him buying votes for his wife who was the LDP candidate in the 2019 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House elections.

If so there will be an by-election.  It seems that in this likely by-election something that might take place for the first time since the 1990s: the LDP and KP will run a candidate against each other.  KP has come in to claim this seat and announce that it will run a candidate in the by-election.  The local LDP chapter reject such KP claims and insist on running its on candidates.  If the by-election takes place for now it seems it will be LDP vs KP vs CDP vs PNHK.

LDP and KP are working frantically to come up with a common LDP-KP candidate but it seems neither side (the local LDP and local KP branches) are willing to compromise.  If CDP is able to get DPP RS and JCP to continue to step aside then in such a by-election I suspect the CDP will have the upper hand.  We also saw in the 2017 Tokyo Prefecture elections what happens to the LDP without KP support.  The same could happen in this by-election if it takes place.

[jaichind]

Latest 毎日(Mainichi) poll has Suga cabinet approval/disapproval at 40(-17)/49(+13) which large swing against Suga since Nov.

By age it is

18～29：45/39
30～39：49/40
40～49：47/42
50～59：38/54
60～69：35/54
70+    ：31/55

Disapproval rising with age showing it is recent COVID-19 surge that is killing Suga's approval rating in this poll

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Japan to help cover IVF costs in attempt to avert demographic crisis

Band-aid at best. Japan needs to make dating, sex, and family formation desirable to young people again by addressing its beyond-toxic work culture and renewing its postwar promises of lifelong economic security for those willing to take it. But of course it's not going to.

[CumbrianLefty]

Japan to help cover IVF costs in attempt to avert demographic crisis

Band-aid at best. Japan needs to make dating, sex, and family formation desirable to young people again by addressing its beyond-toxic work culture and renewing its postwar promises of lifelong economic security for those willing to take it. But of course it's not going to.

But that is DANGEROUS MARXISM, you know.

[GALeftist]

Japan to help cover IVF costs in attempt to avert demographic crisis

Band-aid at best. Japan needs to make dating, sex, and family formation desirable to young people again by addressing its beyond-toxic work culture and renewing its postwar promises of lifelong economic security for those willing to take it. But of course it's not going to.

But that is DANGEROUS MARXISM, you know.

It could also accept more than zero young immigrants, but that's probably cultural Marxism so what do I know ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Cassius]

Apparently Suga’s ‘Go to Travel’ policy has taken a lot of flack and now there’s talk of him being replaced by September 2021. The cycle begins again?

[jaichind]

Apparently Suga’s ‘Go to Travel’ policy has taken a lot of flack and now there’s talk of him being replaced by September 2021. The cycle begins again?

There is going to be a LDP Prez election in Sept 2021 no matter what as Suga merely was elected to serve out Abe's most recent 3 year term (2018-2021).  The assumption before when he took over was that a general election will take place BEFORE Sept 2021 where LDP will win and Suga will be easily re-elected as LDP Prez in Sept 2021.  Now with the general election perhaps taking place in Oct 2021 there now a chance if Suga's poll numbers do not start going up he will be defeated for re-election in Sept 2021 LDP Prez election so a new popular leader and lead LDP to victory in the general election.

Also there are signs that Abe and his gang are getting concerned that Suga is pushing hard on the Abe agenda and not seen as decisive by the LDP grassroots and the public.  Perhaps this might be a re-run of Thatcher-Major.

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently Suga’s ‘Go to Travel’ policy has taken a lot of flack and now there’s talk of him being replaced by September 2021. The cycle begins again?

What is this exactly?