Japan General Discussion: You Gotta Be Kishid-ing Me

[jaichind]

If No wins it will also be a humiliation of the KP leadership.   The NHK exit polls shows KP vote split down the middle on this.  If this ends up being decisive then KP high command would have shown itself not to have the control over its base as it claims.  To some extend this is sort of "known".  In my regression of various Lower and Upper House elections it is clear that when the KP candidate is not running the KP PR vote defection rate toward the Center-Left opposition is somewhere between 10%-20%.  But this time the defection rate seems to be 50% and Osaka is suppose to be one of the areas that the KP is strong in.

[jaichind]

MBS exit poll which has it at No 52.8 Yes 47.2 has party breakdown to be

JRP: Yes 88.0 No 12.0
LDP: Yes 35.9 No 64.1
JCP: Yes 5.8 No 94.2
KP: Yes 48.4 No 51.6

Which matches NHK exit polls that say that the KP PR vote is split down the middle. 

[jaichind]

Yomiuri exit poll shows tiny lead for Yes

[jaichind]

Net net, NHK, MBS, Asahi exit polls has No ahead and  Yomiuri exit polls has Yes ahead

[jaichind]

Turnout at 62.35％ which is 4.4% less than 2015.  Bad sign for the Yes camp.

[jaichind]

More detailed NHK exit polls



Men leans yes, Women leans no.  Make sense as JRP is stronger with men than women


Middle age lean yes, youth elderly leans now.  Make sense as JRP is strong with middle age

[jaichind]

Only results in so far are in 浪速区(Naniwa-ku) where with 56% of the vote in it is Yes 51.7 No 48.3.  In 2015 it was Yes 52.7 No 47.3 here.

[jaichind]

With 34% in it is Yes 50.4 No 49.6

浪速区(Naniwa-ku) is all done and came in at 51.7 No 48.3 vs Yes 52.7 No 47.3 in 2015.

[jaichind]

大正区(Taishō-ku) which went no 56-44 is now at 50-50 with 84% in.

[jaichind]

With 57% in it is Yes 50.4 No 49.6

[jaichind]

福島区 (Fukashima Ko) is 53-47 for No with 78% of the vote in.  In 2015 it was 55.6-44.4 for Yes.  There seems to be some churn since 2015.

[jaichind]

With 70% in it is Yes 50.5 No 49.5

[jaichind]

東成区(Higashinari-ku) done at 49.6-50.4. In 2015 it was 50-50 exactly. 

So far for the 2 districts that are completely done it is a slight swing toward No.

[jaichind]

中央区('Central Ward') all in at 51-49.  Back in 2015 it was 54.1-45.9.  Another swing against Yes.

[jaichind]

With 82% in it is Yes 50.2 No 49.8

It seems most outstanding votes lean No.  No has the upper hand now in my view

[jaichind]

With 86% in it is Yes 50.1 No 49.9

New results coming in actually relatively better for the Yes vote when compared to 2015 even if No gains. This is coming down to the wire.

[jaichind]

NHK calls it for No.  Huge blow to JRP

[jaichind]

Even thought NHK has called it for No with 93% of the vote in it is Yes ahead 50.2-49.8 on the NHK site.  Of course like I said, the remaining vote has a clear No lean.

[jaichind]

Winners/Losers:

JRP: Big loser. This cuts off JRP's route try to go national again like in 2012 and could see JRP regress into a Osaka based party.

Osaka LDP: Huge winners.  Osaka LDP hates, HATES, JRP to the point where they have an alliance with JCP to take on JRP.  Anything bad for JRP is good for Osaka LDP

Suga: Small loser.  Abe-Suga axis always had a positive relationship with JRP and deep down would favor JRP over Osaka LDP.  Suga would prefer JRP wins the vote since JRP going national in a big way like in 2012 again might LDP on the long run but clearly in the short run JRP will cut into the Center-Left vote more than the LDP vote

KP: Big loser.  KP base did note vote as KP high command instructed and seems like was the critical element in the No victory.  JRP did not run candidates against KP Osaka seats in 2017 in exchange for KP support in the next Osaka referendum.  Now KP high command has been humiliated AND in revenge JRP might run candidates against the KP in Osaka in the next Lower House election.

CDP: Small winner.  JRP not going national keeps the lane open for CDP to be the main opposition party in Japan at the national level.  CDP now has a chance to build slowly toward being a true rival to the LDP in a couple of election cycles much like DPJ did in the 2000-2007 period.

[jaichind]

JRP leader and Osaka mayor 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) resigns as JRP leader.  Osaka prefecture governor 吉村 洋文(Yoshimura Hirofumi) will take over as JRP leader for now.   松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) is very popular in Osaka prefecture and having him slowly retire from active politics is a blow to JRP.

[jaichind]

With 98% in it is Yes 49.6 No 50.4.  In 2015 the result was Yes 49.6 No 50.4. 
I suspect No will gain some more so in the end No gains a tiny swing relative to 2015.

[PSOL]

Is the JCP also not a victor in this?

[jaichind]

Is the JCP also not a victor in this?

Yeah.  Good point.  But since JCP is never going to get close to the center of power in Japan it does not really mean much.  I do think JRP overt anti-JCP stance also drove away JCP voters that otherwise would have think the Osaka Metropolitan plan might be a good one. 

[jaichind]

Last time in 2015 when JRP lost the Osaka Metropolis Plan referendum the consequences were

a) Osaka mayor and JIP leader Hashimoto resigns from politics
b) Resulting vacuum in the JIP lead to a split between the core Osaka base and various defectors from DPJ and YP from 2012.  The DPJ and YP defectors saw that without Hashimoto no one is going to be able to drive votes to them as they are mostly outside Osaka.  They took over the party and merged it with DPJ to form DP as the Osaka core split off and formed ORA and renamed JRP once the rump JIP merged with DPJ.

There might be some churn after this referendum defeat for the JRP but most likely not as much as 2015-2016.

[jaichind]

It seems that Osaka mayor 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) will most likely resign as Osaka mayor while new JRP leader 吉村 洋文(Yoshimura Hirofumi) will continue to serve his his term as Osaka governor.  吉村 洋文(Yoshimura Hirofumi) did indicate that he will not be pushing Osaka Metropolis Plan again given its second defeat in a referendum.