Japan General Discussion: You Gotta Be Kishid-ing Me

[jaichind]

JX-ABS Osaka Metropolis plan referendum poll.

For              47.8%
Against        36.8%

Last time around in 2015 when the plan was narrowly defeated in the 2015 referendum all polls had a significant lead for Against.  The fact For is well ahead in polls likely means it will pass with significant margin

[jaichind]

The CDP-DPP merger party rebranding will have the CDP logo going from



to



Truly a brand new look for the main opposition party in Japan

[jaichind]

List of logos of all Japanese parties



All of them quite boring (I think that is a feature and not a bug) with the JCP one being the most interesting.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54216632

Japan's former prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has visited a controversial war memorial just days after stepping down.

Mr Abe posted a picture of himself at the Yasukuni Shrine, telling his followers he had gone there to inform the spirits of his resignation.

He largely stayed away from the shrine, which honours Japan's war dead, but also convicted war criminals, during his time as prime minister.

Mr Abe's 2013 visit angered China and South Korea.

Japan's occupation of its two neighbours ended with its defeat in 1945 and the conclusion of the Second World War.

I guess when you aren't Prime Minister you don't care about insulting other countries, do you?

I mostly break with my Chinese compatriots on this.  I see nothing wrong with Japanese politicians visiting the  Yasukuni Shrine.  It is a  Shrine that honors those that fought for Japan and died in its defense.  We Chinese have plenty of shrines/temples like this and I have visited many of such Chinese shrines/temples with a great sense of gratitude and respect.  Sure, some of those honored Yasukuni Shrine might have been considered war criminals by some but that is like saying for the USA to have a positive relationship with Vietnam the US President cannot visit the Vietnam Memorial.

The core issue here is not Japan but an issue of a problem of low self-esteem when it comes to WWII for many Chinese.  We know we we really did not defeat Japan and the Japanese know it too.  The need for us to demand the Japanese apologize over and over again stems from our desire for us Chinese to hear from the Japanese "we lost to you fair and square".  And the fact is we will never hear that because it is not true.  It was the USA that defeat Japan.  We Chinese just went along for the ride.  All we Chinese accomplished in WWII was to avoid defeat but victory was not ours.

We Chinese have to move on from this absurd issue and deal with Japanese as a neighbor that shares a common cultural heritage with us and should in normal circumstances should be a friendly power.

I agree that there's a lot of posturing and fixation on symbolic harms on both sides here, but I think you're dramatically underestimating the amount of bad faith and refusal to accept the realities of the past that exist on the Japanese side. In particular I find questionable your statement that some of the dead enshrined at Yasukuni "might have been considered war criminals by some", as if there's really any room for doubt about some of these people for any historian who isn't Japanese. I say that as someone who in [current year] geopolitics sides with Japan over China.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/01/fukushima-nuclear-disaster-preventable-court-rules-with-more-damages-claims-likely

A Japanese court has found the government and Tepco, the operator of the wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant, negligent for failing to take measures to prevent the 2011 nuclear disaster, and ordered them to pay 1bn yen ($9.5m) in damages to thousands of residents for their lost livelihoods.

The ruling on Wednesday by Sendai high court could open up the government to further damage claims because thousands of other residents evacuated as reactors at the coastal power station overheated and released a radioactive cloud, following the devastating tsunami. While some people have returned home, areas close to the plant are still off limits.

The plaintiffs had sought monthly compensation of about 50,000 yen ($470) per person until radiation levels subside to pre-disaster levels, seeking a total of 28bn yen ($265m).


The plaintiffs’ head lawyer, Izutaro Managi, hailed the ruling as a major victory, saying: “We ask the government to extend relief measures as soon as possible, not only for the plaintiffs but for all victims based on the damage they suffered.”

The latest ruling follows 13 lower court decisions, which were divided over government responsibility in the disaster. The latest ruling doubles the amount of damages against Tepco ordered by a lower court in 2017

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Good, but that's an absolutely pathetic amount of damages compared to what was asked for.

[jaichind]

Nikkei reports that Suga is unlikely to call an early election for 2020 and would prefer to have an election in 2021.  Suga seems to believe he can get a few policy wins under his belt and then face the electorate with a set of accomplishments.  Many in the LDP are still trying to pressure Suga to strike now while the LDP have a massive lead in the polls pointing to missed opportunities in 2008 to call an election while the DPJ itself was divided and absorbed in infighting and LDP had regained the lead in the polls since the 2007 Upper House election debacle.   It seems Suga is not listing to them.  Of course an election in 2021 will have to be early 2021 or else KP will have objections to having an national election so close to the critical Tokyo prefecture elections that KP prioritize as its top priority.

[NewYorkExpress]

Nikkei reports that Suga is unlikely to call an early election for 2020 and would prefer to have an election in 2021.  Suga seems to believe he can get a few policy wins under his belt and then face the electorate with a set of accomplishments.  Many in the LDP are still trying to pressure Suga to strike now while the LDP have a massive lead in the polls pointing to missed opportunities in 2008 to call an election while the DPJ itself was divided and absorbed in infighting and LDP had regained the lead in the polls since the 2007 Upper House election debacle.   It seems Suga is not listing to them.  Of course an election in 2021 will have to be early 2021 or else KP will have objections to having an national election so close to the critical Tokyo prefecture elections that KP prioritize as its top priority.

It can't be during the Summer of 2021, unless Suga commits to canceling the Tokyo Olympics because of COVID, either.

[jaichind]

Latest JX-ABS Osaka Metropolis plan Nov 1st referendum poll.

For              45.3 (-2.5)
Against        40.2 (+3.4)



The gap has closed since last poll.  Still, For should be en route to a victory. 

[CumbrianLefty]

I actually think Suga's approach - to try and get some achievements under his belt before going to the country - could well be the correct one. Big poll leads based on not much more than a "honeymoon" for the new leader have a nasty habit of dwindling in the heat of an actual election campaign.

[jaichind]

Latest JX-ABS Osaka Metropolis plan Nov 1st referendum poll has the gap closing a bit more



For              45.4 (+0.1)
Against        42.3 (+2.1)

[jaichind]

Oct 25th is 富山(Toyama) governor election

This should have been an easy race for the pro-LDP incumbent 石井 隆一(Ishii Takakazu) to win a 4th term against a pro-CCP candidate.  But a LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) has emerged to take on the incumbent turning it into a 3 way race.  新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro)'s grandfather was governor in the 1940s and 1950s and has deep roots here.  He is also backed by JRP and a rebel LDP faction.



The race is expected to be neck-to-neck between the pro-LDP incumbent and the LDP rebel.  DPP is baking the pro-LDP incumbent along with LDP-KP while CDP seems to be sitting this one out not backing the pro-JCP candidate nor the LDP rebel.  

[jaichind]

Latest Go2senkyo/JX poll on PR voting intentions (diff from Sept poll)

LDP    37.2 (-1.0)
KP       7.1  (+0.8 )
PNHK   0.8 (+0.1)
JRP      7.2 (-2.2)
DPP     1.1 (-0.1)
CDP   18.5 (---)
RS       1.3 (-0.3)
SDP     2.1 (+1.0)
JCP      6.4 (+0.4)

Not much change other than a slight swing to the Center-Left parties and JRP dropping.  This type of polling seems to imply around a LDP-KP PR vote of close to 50% which would be enough for a landslide even of the Center-Left parties maintain their alliance with JCP in critical swing districts.  For now Suga is able to maintain a large LDP PR vote share lead.

[jaichind]

KNB poll for 富山(Toyama) governor election has  pro-LDP incumbent 石井隆一(Ishii Takakazu) and LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) neck-to-neck with the pro-JCP candidate far behind.  The poll does not give much details other than  pro-LDP incumbent 石井隆一(Ishii Takakazu)  is stronger with youth and the elderly and JRP backed LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) is stronger with middle aged voters (which would make sense as the that is where JRP is stronger.)

[jaichind]

SDP it seems, just like DPP, might split.  Just like DPP, a good part of the grassroots want to merge into CDP but the leadership wants to stay independent.



Most likely SDP will split with majority of the MP and MLA joining CDP and a rump SDP, if that is even possible given how small it is, will continue on.  In other words a replay of DPP split but with a smaller base/party.

[CumbrianLefty]

Where do the handful of remaining elected SDP people stand?

[jaichind]

Where do the handful of remaining elected SDP people stand?

Most of them are for merging with CDP

[jaichind]

Oct 25th is 富山(Toyama) governor election

This should have been an easy race for the pro-LDP incumbent 石井 隆一(Ishii Takakazu) to win a 4th term against a pro-CCP candidate.  But a LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) has emerged to take on the incumbent turning it into a 3 way race.  新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro)'s grandfather was governor in the 1940s and 1950s and has deep roots here.  He is also backed by JRP and a rebel LDP faction.



The race is expected to be neck-to-neck between the pro-LDP incumbent and the LDP rebel.  DPP is baking the pro-LDP incumbent along with LDP-KP while CDP seems to be sitting this one out not backing the pro-JCP candidate nor the LDP rebel.  

NHK exit poll has  JRP backed LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) well ahead of pro-LDP incumbent 石井 隆一(Ishii Takakazu).  新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) is also the brother of former 北海道(Hokkaido) governor and now LDP Upper House MP 高橋 はるみ(Takahashi Harumi).  So now we we have brother and sister governors of different prefectures although not at the same time.  Sort of like W and Jeb Bush although in this case 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) ran as a LDP rebel.

[jaichind]

Latest joint media poll on Osaka Metropolis plan Nov 1st referendum has No taking a tiny need on a pretty strong swing



For            43.3 (-5.9)
Against      43.5 (+4.0)

I still think it passes narrowly although Against clearly have the momentum

[jaichind]

富山(Toyama) governor election.  With 64% of the vote in it is

JRP backed LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro)       49.6%
LDP-KP-DPP backed 石井 隆一(Ishii Takakazu)       45.3%
pro-JCP                                                              5.1%

Race closer than exit polls indicated.  pro-JCP candidate at 5.1% shows most of the CDP and part of JCP base went over to the LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro), giving him the victory.

[jaichind]

富山(Toyama) governor election counting done

JRP backed LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro)       53.5%
LDP-KP-DPP backed 石井 隆一(Ishii Takakazu)       41.8%
pro-JCP                                                              4.7%

As urban areas came in 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro)'s lead grew which sort of adds to the argument that 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) won by winning a part of the LDP base and added most of the non-JCP anti-LDP opposition vote.

[jaichind]

Summery of latest polls on Osaka Metropolis plan Nov 1st referendum

                    Asahi         ABC TV            Yomiuri          Kyodo
YES               39               46.9                 44               43.3
NO                 41              41.2                 41               43.6


Breakdown of the Kyodo poll by age/gender reveals high level of support of youth males (JRP base) and opposition from the elderly and young women as well.  If so for JRP to win they have to hope for heavy turnout since the elderly will turn out no matter what.
 

[jaichind]

With polls showing Osaka Metropolis plan Nov 1st referendum being close, one key factor would be how the KP vote goes.  Back in 2015 the KP vote mostly went against the Osaka Metropolis plan despite a JRP-KP alliance at the prefecture level.  This time around KP is coming out in favor of the plan.  The reason why that is is because JRP has threatened to run candidates against KP in the next Lower Hose election in the 4 大阪(Osaka) and 2 兵庫(Hyōgo) district seats that the KP currently hold if the KP high command did not come out in favor of the Osaka Metropolis plan.  It is not clear if the KP base would respond given the fact that the KP high command most likely would not put a lot of effort into mobilizing the KP vote versus just paying lip service to JRP.

The JRP base has grown since 2015 and DPP is also de facto for the Osaka Metropolis plan as part of the growling likelihood that DPP might form a tactical alliance with JRP in the upcoming Lower House election.  All this points to a greater than 50% chance that the Osaka Metropolis plan does pass although by a smaller margin that one would have expected a couple of months ago.

[jaichind]

Voting in  Osaka Metropolis plan referendum done

Turnout most likely around 64% which is a couple of percentage points lower than 2015

Exit polls has it neck-to-neck with slight edge to No.  Party breakout LDP breaking against (expected) and KP vote evenly split
NHK exit poll has it slight edge to No
 


MBS exit poll has it at
No  52.8%
Yes 52.8%

Final ABC/JX poll has it at
Yes   45.0(-1.9）
No    46.6(+5.4)


All these info seems to point to a last minute surge for No.  I wonder if it is the Osaka LDP finally got some of its base to vote No or the KP base breaking against the plan despite what their leadership indicates or both as per NHK exit polls

[jaichind]

If JRP wins this referendum there will be another attempt by JRP leader and mayor of Osaka 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō), to go national, especially Western Japan, in the next Lower House election.  If JRP is defeated then  松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) indicated that he will exit politics when his term ends in 2023 and JRP most likely will decline into a Osaka based regional party.