UT CDs - Lighthouse Research/Salt Lake Tribune: Moore+26, Stewart+19, Curtis+30, McAdams+10
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  UT CDs - Lighthouse Research/Salt Lake Tribune: Moore+26, Stewart+19, Curtis+30, McAdams+10
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Author Topic: UT CDs - Lighthouse Research/Salt Lake Tribune: Moore+26, Stewart+19, Curtis+30, McAdams+10  (Read 258 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 16, 2020, 11:27:38 AM »
« edited: September 16, 2020, 11:49:34 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/09/16/utah-debate-commission

August 31 - September 12
500 registered voters

McAdams 47%
Owens 37%

McAdams won 50.1%-49.9% in 2018.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2020, 11:29:15 AM »

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/09/16/utah-debate-commission

August 31 - September 12
500 registered voters

McAdams 47%
Owens 37%

McAdams won 50.1%-49.9% in 2018.

McAdams certainly seems to have the advantage, which isn't surprising given the long-term trends in his district and Utah's continued apathy towards Trump. Moreover, Owens is far from being the strongest opponent. As of right now, I would rate this seat Lean Democratic.
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2020, 11:33:12 AM »

Tilt/Lean D.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2020, 11:45:29 AM »
« Edited: September 16, 2020, 11:49:10 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Here come the rest:
500 registered voters per district
I retract the comment about MoE. It appears to apply specifically to the full sample

N.B. margins are pre-rounding so there will be some discrepancies here.
UT-01
Moore (R) 49%
Parry (D) 22%
Other 1%
Undecided 28%

Bishop (R) won 61.6%-13.5% in 2018.

UT-02
Stewart (R) 48%
Weston (D) 28%
Latham (L) 7%
Other 0%
Undecided 17%

Stewart (R) won 55.1%-36.9% in 2018.

UT-03
Curtis (R) 51%
Thorpe (D) 20%
McNeil (UUP) 3%
Cummings (C) 2%
Other 0%
Undecided 24%

Curtis (R) won 67.6%-27.3% in 2018.

UT-04
McAdams (D) 47%
Owens (R) 37%
Molnar (L) 2%
Broderick (UUP) 0%
Other 0%
Undecided 14%

McAdams (D) won 50.1%-49.9% in 2018.

Edit: sorry -  I should have just quoted VARepublican's post instead of reposting toplines.
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2020, 11:50:43 AM »

Here come the rest:
500 registered voters per district
I retract the comment about MoE. It appears to apply specifically to the full sample

N.B. margins are pre-rounding so there will be some discrepancies here.
UT-01
Moore (R) 49%
Parry (D) 22%
Other 1%
Undecided 28%

Bishop (R) won 61.6%-13.5% in 2018.

UT-02
Stewart (R) 48%
Weston (D) 28%
Latham (L) 7%
Other 0%
Undecided 17%

Stewart (R) won 55.1%-36.9% in 2018.

UT-03
Curtis (R) 51%
Thorpe (D) 20%
McNeil (UUP) 3%
Cummings (C) 2%
Other 0%
Undecided 24%

Curtis (R) won 67.6%-27.3% in 2018.

UT-04
McAdams (D) 47%
Owens (R) 37%
Molnar (L) 2%
Broderick (UUP) 0%
Other 0%
Undecided 14%

McAdams (D) won 50.1%-49.9% in 2018.

Edit: sorry -  I should have just quoted VARepublican's post instead of reposting toplines.

Itís OK  Smile Iíll delete my post
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