NC-CNN: Cunningham +1

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1305901565807648772

[VAR]

B-b-b-b-but I thought weak candidate Tillis would be underperforming Trump by double digits because of Cal’s WWC appeal!

[Woody]

Tillis is going to overperform Trump like Burr did in 16'.

[DaleCooper]

This is within the margin of error for Cunningham running about even with Biden. I used to think Cunningham was a safer bet than Biden, but I'm starting to think that Cunningham's polling lead resembles Hillary's quite a bit, in that he's solidified most of his support in the state but is still below 50% enough for the undecideds to rally around the GOP in the end.

This is definitely an outlier poll for Cunningham though, so I'm not just suddenly deciding that he isn't the favorite based on this, but I am leaning towards him doing about as well as Biden for better or worse, and not outperforming him by more than a point or so.

[New York En Marche!]

Number/margin doesn't concern me too much as it's an outlier, but Biden outrunning him does. Still, until it's reflected in other polls not too much reason to panic.

[VAR]

People seem to be forgetting the Monmouth poll...

[SenatorCouzens]

Some evidence that this race is coming back down to earth and that partisans are starting to come home. Lol at some members' call to ban Trafalgar.

And while by some measures North Carolina has become more Democratic (benefitting the Democrats), it has also become more polarized (which benefits the Republicans). Elizabeth Dole lost by a 9 point margin in 2008 when McCain lost by less than half a point. It's hard to imagine such a discrepancy today.

Anyway, interesting race that could determine control of the Senate, which would be a huge check on a Biden presidency (especially regarding judicial appointments).

[Devout Centrist]

Tillis is going to overperform Trump like Burr did in 16'.

Burr led in the vast majority of public polls in 2016 and was usually in the mid to high forties

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

It is just one poll, but Cunningham's lead was always unsustainable. Most polls had him up around 48/49% of the vote with Tillis hovering around 39 to 43%.

If you dove into the crosstabs you'd see most of the undecided voters were committed Trump supporters unsure if they want to vote for Tillis - he DID get booed like three times at three different Trump rallies.

But now that voting is starting, this may be the first sign that undecided Trump supporters are finally coming home to Tillis, which was going to be inevitable anyways honestly. It's a two party system, who are they going to vote for? The Liberal? Lol. Tillis isn't controversial enough to have committed Republicans abandon him in droves like Roy Moore or Kris Kobach did

[WD]

One notable thing is Trump and Tillis are both at 46%. If Biden carries the state Cunningham likely wins as well. I’m not too concerned.

[VAR]

Everyone fixing their #analysis I see

[ElectionsGuy]

Odd that in this one, they have Biden doing better than Cunningham and Tillis matching Trump. Usually it's Cunningham matching Biden and then Trump doing better than Tillis.

[CookieDamage]

Everyone fixing their #analysis I see

Tillis still isn't leading 😂

[VAR]

Everyone fixing their #analysis I see

Tillis still isn't leading 😂

Tillis isn’t supposed to be leading if Biden’s leading. I thought it was obvious, lol.

And that’s not the #analysis I was talking about.

[Xing]

Not great for Cunningham, but unless Tillis starts leading in some polls, I don't think we can call him favored yet. Looking like more of a Toss-Up than Lean D. It's kind of crazy how both Democrats and Republicans seem really overconfident about this race. Democrats think that Cunningham will massively overperform Biden and win by a Hagan-like margin, and Republicans think that Tillis is favored/definitely going to win/not going to underperform Trump even though he's hardly led in any polls.

[President Johnson]

Meh, never bought Tillis is trailing by seven. Cunningham is probably favored after all, but he's not running even with Cooper. Not nearly. The fact that Tillis is stuck in the low and mid 40s and unable to lead a quality poll for quite some time now should be a red flag for him. Anyway, this is a must win on the road to the senate majority.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

CNN/SSRS
September 9-13
787 likely voters
MoE (among likely voters): 4.4%

Bray (L) 3%
Hayes (C) 1%
Other 0% (no voters)
None of these 0% (no voters)
No opinion 3%

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Still Lean D, despite all the bed-wetting in this thread.