Why have Pacific NW Gubernatorial Elections been so close during the past 20 years?

[kwabbit]

Washington and Oregon have been strongly Democratic at the Federal level during the 21st century, but their gubernatorial elections have been strangely close.

I couldn't find old partisan leans so I'll use an average of the adjacent presidential elections. For elections during Presidential election years, I'll use an average of Pres/CGB for National Margin.

Elec/Margin/National Congressional Margin/Difference/PVI of the State/ Difference
OR 2002- D+2.8/ R+4.8/ D+7.6/ D+3.3/ D +4.3
OR 2006- D+7.9/ D+8.0/ R+.1/ D+6.6/ R+ 6.7
OR 2010- D+1.5/ R+6.8/ D+8.3/ D+8.7/ R+.4
OR 2014- D+5.4/ R+5.7/ D+11.1/ D+8.7/ D+2.4
OR 2016- D+7.1/ D+.6/ D+6.5/ D+9.1/ R+2.6
OR 2018- D+6.4/ D+8.6/ R+2.2/ D+9.1/ R+11.3
Average-  D+5.2/ R+0.0/ D+5.2/ D+7.6/ R+2.4

Although R+2.4 more expected given the partisan lean and national margin isn't crazy, 4 out of 6 elections featured a Democratic incumbent, who hypothetically should have been helped by this factor.

Elec/Margin/National Congressional Margin/Difference/PVI of the State/ Difference
WA 2004- D+0.0/ R+2.6/ D+2.6/ D+9.7/ R+7.1
WA 2008- D+6.4/ D+9.0/ R+2.6/ D+9.8/ R+12.4
WA 2012- D+3.1/ D+2.5/ D+.6/ D+11.0/ R+10.4
WA 2016- D+8.8/ D+0.6/ D+8.2/ D+14.2/ R+6.0
Average- D+4.6/ D+2.4/ D+2.2/ D+11.2/ R+9.0

In Washington this has been even more drastic. The margin was on average 9 points better for Republicans than expected. If you average OR and WA together, the R performed 5 points better than expected despite the Dems having an incumbency advantage. Even with all of those, the Democrats have won 10/10 elections, even though their highest margin across these states was Inslee's 8.8 point victory in 2016.

What has been the cause of this interesting skew? Does the Pacific NW have a relatively more conservative attitude towards state politics than the country at large?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

WA and OR are, while reliably blue, deceivingly close-ish. Republicans generally have a 40% floor.

Add to that, Republican nominees for Governor in both states tend to be a lot more socially moderate than you see elsewhere. Several of the past nominees in each state have been pro-choice, for example.

[Benjamin Frank]

In Washington State, King County is (still) much more Republican at the state and local level than it is at the Federal level.

For instance, if I recall this correctly, when Dave Reichert retired, it was generally assumed that Republicans started with an advantage in holding his district because every major state and local politician in that district was/is a Republican.

There might also be a fatigue with Democratic governors in Washington State (and probably Oregon as well.)  The last Republican governor in Washington State was John Spellman who was defeated for reelection in 1984.

The last Republican governor of Oregon was back in 1986.

[kwabbit]

In Washington State, King County is (still) much more Republican at the state and local level than it is at the Federal level.

For instance, if I recall this correctly, when Dave Reichert retired, it was generally assumed that Republicans started with an advantage in holding his district because every major state and local politician in that district was/is a Republican.

There might also be a fatigue with Democratic governors in Washington State (and probably Oregon as well.)  The last Republican governor in Washington State was John Spellman who was defeated for reelection in 1984.

The last Republican governor of Oregon was back in 1986.

I looked at the King County results and the majority of the difference is made up in King. Clinton won WA by 521k (52-36) and King by 502k (70-21) and Inslee won WA by 284k (54-46) and King by 356k (68-32). So King shifted about twice as right against the Presidential compared to the rest of the state.

Perhaps the Kitzhaber scandal affected Brown in the 2016 gubernatorial, but she did even worse in a much stronger year in 2018. Fatigue must be playing a strong part if there have been only Dem governors for nearly 40 years.

[Sestak]

I mean don't these states have, like, the longest current D gubernatorial streak? Most of the other solidly blue states have actually elected Republican governors during this time period.

[kwabbit]

I mean don't these states have, like, the longest current D gubernatorial streak? Most of the other solidly blue states have actually elected Republican governors during this time period.

That is true, but you don't usually have incumbent Dem governors struggling in Dem wave years. OR and NM have similar partisan leans, but OR 2006 was +8 and NM 2006 was +36. OR 2018 was +6 and NM 2018 was +15.

Perhaps another question is why Rs have failed to win the governorship even in elections where they should have had a chance given the national environment (OR 2002, 2010, 2014, WA 2004). On the whole, elections that should have been close have been close, but elections that should have been Dem blowouts have been oddly close. 

[Benjamin Frank]

In Washington State, King County is (still) much more Republican at the state and local level than it is at the Federal level.

For instance, if I recall this correctly, when Dave Reichert retired, it was generally assumed that Republicans started with an advantage in holding his district because every major state and local politician in that district was/is a Republican.

There might also be a fatigue with Democratic governors in Washington State (and probably Oregon as well.)  The last Republican governor in Washington State was John Spellman who was defeated for reelection in 1984.

The last Republican governor of Oregon was back in 1986.

I looked at the King County results and the majority of the difference is made up in King. Clinton won WA by 521k (52-36) and King by 502k (70-21) and Inslee won WA by 284k (54-46) and King by 356k (68-32). So King shifted about twice as right against the Presidential compared to the rest of the state.

Perhaps the Kitzhaber scandal affected Brown in the 2016 gubernatorial, but she did even worse in a much stronger year in 2018. Fatigue must be playing a strong part if there have been only Dem governors for nearly 40 years.

My understanding is that Kate Brown is regarded as too liberal for many voters.  I think the concern is that she's too liberal socially, but I do think she's also something of a cautionary tale for the Sanders type economic 'progressives.'