|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 29, 2020, 09:08:17 am
News: Don't miss the first US presidential debate at 9:00 pm EST!

Discussion thread link: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=400306.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  ABC/Washington Post: Minnesota - Biden +16 | Wisconsin - Biden +6
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4
Author Topic: ABC/Washington Post: Minnesota - Biden +16 | Wisconsin - Biden +6  (Read 1903 times)
n1240
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 615


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: September 16, 2020, 07:30:17 am »

The Minnesota poll moved Biden's win probability by 3% at 538.

Minnesota has gone from tipping point state to same probability for Biden to win as Colorado in two weeks on 538's forecast.
Logged
Unbeatable Titan Vincenzo De Luca!
Battista Minola 1616
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,345
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: 0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: September 16, 2020, 07:35:23 am »

If Biden really takes 57% of the vote in Minnesota I think I'll spend all November listening exclusively to Bob Dylan.
Logged
roxas11
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 726
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: September 16, 2020, 08:07:06 am »

The margin seem a little high in Minnesota but the key take away is that Biden is well over 50 percent in both these states

as another poster has already pointed maybe if Biden was leading 45 to 39 I could buy ABC spin that Wisconsin is still close but in this case Biden over 50 percent and trump is still suck in the low 40s

trump simply has no chance of winning this state with poor numbers like that and News organizations like ABC should be brave enough to say that instead of acting like things are still close in Wisconsin.
Logged
redjohn
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,529


Political Matrix
E: -6.90, S: -7.22

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: September 16, 2020, 09:37:33 am »

Very positive polls for Biden; 57% in MN and 52% in WI are great numbers. Clinton never got close to 57% in a MN poll, and she never hit 52% in a WI poll. There's much less room for undecided swings here.
Logged
neostassenite31
Rookie
**
Posts: 158
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: September 16, 2020, 10:09:59 am »

The MN number is clearly an outlier given the underlying partisan breakdown of the electorate there (very small D to R advantage). Nevertheless it is impossible to spin a D+16 poll there as being anywhere close to good for Trump
Logged
EliteLX
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 982
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: September 16, 2020, 10:24:39 am »

I don't know who needs to hear this but there hasn't been a 14 point swing in Minnesota after the state just watched it's cities get set on fire and then it's governor & mayor appease them.
Logged
Unpolled Amash Voter for Trump
DTC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,633


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: September 16, 2020, 10:27:35 am »

I don't know who needs to hear this but there hasn't been a 14 point swing in Minnesota after the state just watched it's cities get set on fire and then it's governor & mayor appease them.

This happened in Trumpís America. People are voting against the burnings that have been happening in Trumpís America.
Logged
South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,265


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: September 16, 2020, 10:29:11 am »


Several times.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: September 16, 2020, 10:31:40 am »

I'm glad I wasn't the only one who thought this framing was absurd. Whoever wrote this write up really doing a LOT to make it seem like a 6 pt difference is somehow tied



Gotta have that horse race narrative.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,304
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: September 16, 2020, 10:31:57 am »

Ugh, MN is definitely an outlier. But the notion Trump was competitive here was way overblown because of a few garbage polls and 2016 vibes. HRC's weak performance was likely the D's floor, while Trump's was the GOP ceiling. He didn't even reach 45% here, similar to GOP gubernatorial candidates in 2014 and 2018. With a smaller 3rd vote share this time, Biden should easily get above 50%.

WI is again looking good so far. Could actually end up voting to the left of PA.
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,599
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: September 16, 2020, 10:49:49 am »

Just a reminder, WaPo polls have a pretty great track record.

In 2016, they had Clinton winning VA by 6. She won by 5.
In 2018, they had Wexton leading VA10 by 11 and 13. She won by 12.
In 2016, they had Clinton winning nationally by 3, she won by 2.
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,350


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: September 16, 2020, 10:52:01 am »

Just a reminder, WaPo polls have a pretty great track record.

In 2016, they had Clinton winning VA by 6. She won by 5.
In 2018, they had Wexton leading VA10 by 11 and 13. She won by 12.
In 2016, they had Clinton winning nationally by 3, she won by 2.

Counterpoint: VA and VA10 are among the most overeducated states and CDs, respectively, and the national result in 2016 was thrown off by lopsided margins in California. Show me their record in areas with a lot of working class white voters.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,221


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: September 16, 2020, 10:53:47 am »

I don't know who needs to hear this but there hasn't been a 14 point swing in Minnesota after the state just watched it's cities get set on fire and then it's governor & mayor appease them.

Itís one thing to point out a 14-point swing is unlikely, itís another to assume that thereís any significant number of people who saw what happened with George Floyd and are more favorable to Trump because they think Frey and Walz are ďappeasers.Ē
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,599
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: September 16, 2020, 10:56:14 am »

Just a reminder, WaPo polls have a pretty great track record.

In 2016, they had Clinton winning VA by 6. She won by 5.
In 2018, they had Wexton leading VA10 by 11 and 13. She won by 12.
In 2016, they had Clinton winning nationally by 3, she won by 2.

Counterpoint: VA and VA10 are among the most overeducated states and CDs, respectively, and the national result in 2016 was thrown off by lopsided margins in California. Show me their record in areas with a lot of working class white voters.

I mean, I can go through and find more but you're also ignoring the fact that they got the margin practically 100% correct *nationally* as well in 2016
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,185
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: September 16, 2020, 11:13:15 am »

The WI number is completely believable, and would be considered a strong position for Biden in this state.
Logged
ReapSow
Rafe
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,357
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: September 16, 2020, 11:30:45 am »


Careful or you'll end up as dry as Trump's campaign coffers.
Logged
DaleCooper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 699


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: September 16, 2020, 11:37:19 am »

I don't know who needs to hear this but there hasn't been a 14 point swing in Minnesota after the state just watched it's cities get set on fire and then it's governor & mayor appease them.

Itís one thing to point out a 14-point swing is unlikely, itís another to assume that thereís any significant number of people who saw what happened with George Floyd and are more favorable to Trump because they think Frey and Walz are ďappeasers.Ē

Yeah, polling has consistently shown that Trump is viewed as making these riots worse while Biden is viewed has being capable of bringing the country together.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: September 16, 2020, 11:43:55 am »

If Biden really takes 57% of the vote in Minnesota I think I'll spend all November listening exclusively to Bob Dylan.

Donít forget Prince!
Logged
Unbeatable Titan Vincenzo De Luca!
Battista Minola 1616
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,345
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: 0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: September 16, 2020, 11:51:58 am »

If Biden really takes 57% of the vote in Minnesota I think I'll spend all November listening exclusively to Bob Dylan.

Donít forget Prince!

Right. Prince for the Twin Cities and Bob Dylan for the Arrowhead. So as to cover the two main (non-Atlas) Blue areas.
Logged
Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas
Interlocutor
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,088


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: September 16, 2020, 04:39:11 pm »
« Edited: September 17, 2020, 01:23:10 am by Monstro »

State of the racle with less than 7 weeks to go: Texas is more of a tossup than Michigan/Wisconsin & perhaps Pennsylvania, most news organizations don't want to admit it
Logged
dunceDude
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 275
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: September 16, 2020, 04:41:50 pm »

I don't know who needs to hear this but there hasn't been a 14 point swing in Minnesota after the state just watched it's cities get set on fire and then it's governor & mayor appease them.

Here's some literature to help you cope with the fact it's no longer 2016:
Logged
ηєω Éяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,188
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -1.22

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: September 16, 2020, 05:09:04 pm »

State of the race: Texas is more of a tossup than Michigan/Wisconsin & perhaps Pennsylvania, most news organizations don't want to admit it
Most news organization don't want to admit that this has been the most stable presidential election since 1996. All because "muh 2016" and "we want to be objective".
Logged
ReapSow
Rafe
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,357
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: September 16, 2020, 05:09:26 pm »

If Biden really takes 57% of the vote in Minnesota I think I'll spend all November listening exclusively to Bob Dylan.

Donít forget Prince!

Bob Dylan? Prince? Overrated losers.

But this guy...


Logged
redjohn
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,529


Political Matrix
E: -6.90, S: -7.22

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: September 16, 2020, 05:12:12 pm »

The confidence I've been seeing from Trump supporters is astounding given how far behind he is and has been since March. Counting on massive polling errors, both nationally and in state polls across multiple states, seems like a poor reason to believe Trump is favored. If TX was Trump+16 and AZ was Trump+6 I don't think pundits would be saying the race is a pure tossup.
Logged
Ferguson97
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,602
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.74, S: -6.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: September 16, 2020, 05:13:37 pm »

I don't know who needs to hear this but there hasn't been a 14 point swing in Minnesota after the state just watched it's cities get set on fire and then it's governor & mayor appease them.

Then good for Biden because he's neither the Mayor of Minneapolis or the Governor of Minnesota.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.214 seconds with 15 queries.