ABC/Washington Post: Minnesota - Biden +16 | Wisconsin - Biden +6

[Duke of York]

link no longer works

[ajc0918]

Awesome polling day for future President Joseph Robinette Biden.

[NOVA Green]

Definitely a "Boom Coming from the Smoke Filled Room" Classic Old Skool Hip-Hop....

MN numbers look high, WI numbers looks low....

Still credible polling outfit confirming other recent Statewide polling results...

Trump's "Law and Order" campaign appears to be collapsing in both States, and locals view recent Civil Unrest from a broader perspective, and not buying the haters hate, as their Family Members, Friends, are dying and suffering at the hands of COVID-19 with a President AWOL all the time at best, and stirring up the Forest Fires at worst...

Doesn't look like Trump's economic Nationalism and Populism is breaking through either in communities decimated for decades by Neo-Liberal Economic Trade Agreements... shoot don't even get me started on the whole Trump is "Anti-War" BS that played well in many parts of the Midwest in 2016....

The Goats: Typical American from '93

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_F2FDpU1mM&list=PLLl5zzXXO7BH7gTS_2pYiErtvqYSn-cx3&index=2

[Buzz]

Minnesota number won’t be anywhere close to reality.  Anyways terrible polling day for the Incumbent.

[Ferguson97]

The fact that +6 in Wisconsin is considered mediocre for Biden really tells you where this race is headed...

[Skill and Chance]

Minnesota number won’t be anywhere close to reality.  Anyways terrible polling day for the Incumbent.

Interesting that state polls have clearly gotten better for Biden while national polls got marginally worse.

[Stuart98]

Minnesota number won’t be anywhere close to reality.  Anyways terrible polling day for the Incumbent.

Interesting that state polls have clearly gotten better for Biden while national polls got marginally worse.

Might just be reversion to the mean, and the prior gap was just noise?

[Skill and Chance]

Minnesota number won’t be anywhere close to reality.  Anyways terrible polling day for the Incumbent.

Interesting that state polls have clearly gotten better for Biden while national polls got marginally worse.

Might just be reversion to the mean, and the prior gap was just noise?

Probably just noise.  If it's not noise, the most likely explanation would be Biden lost some ground on the West Coast.

[LiberalDem19]

I doubt this ends up being the final in MN, Walz got Greater MN within 7 and won by 12, I think Biden +10 in MN and nationally +7 is what happens

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

The Rust Belt Rack holds firm😎😎😎.

[The Mikado]

Minnesota number won’t be anywhere close to reality.

I mean, yes, I'd probably take the under if given an over-under of "Biden by 10" in Minnesota. But I'd have to think about it.

[DaleCooper]

I doubt this ends up being the final in MN, Walz got Greater MN within 7 and won by 12, I think Biden +10 in MN and nationally +7 is what happens

I'm really starting to wonder whether or not Trump's EC advantage has shrunk in 2020. Hear me out, obviously it still exists, but we're seeing polling out of Wisconsin and Michigan where they are polling on-par with or better than Biden nationwide more often than not. Obviously tipping point states like PA and especially FL are to the right of the nation, but a good amount of damn-near must-have states for Trump are polling in alignment with the popular vote or even further towards Biden.

[Badger]

Child rapist enablers across the country and this forum weep at the decline of their main molester.

[MysteryMan]

Minnesota number won’t be anywhere close to reality.  Anyways terrible polling day for the Incumbent.

Interesting that state polls have clearly gotten better for Biden while national polls got marginally worse.

Might just be reversion to the mean, and the prior gap was just noise?

Probably just noise.  If it's not noise, the most likely explanation would be Biden lost some ground on the West Coast.

Not really sure how that would be possible. As it is, the massive fires caused by Climate Change and the lack of federal support aren't winning Trump any support here, and he was already much lower among white voters than in the rest of the country outside the northeast.

[Adam Griffin]

C'mon y'all: Joe Biden will not win Minnesota by more than Barack Obama-08.

[Eraserhead]

The Minnesota numbers are not believable.

[morgieb]

Probably bullsh**t, but still delicious. So much for Minnesota being a tossup because Trafalgar.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Minnesota number won’t be anywhere close to reality.  Anyways terrible polling day for the Incumbent.

My thoughts exactly, Buzz.  I haven't been on the Texas-flip bandwagon, but I'd venture that Texas has a better shot of flipping before Minnesota goes to Biden by sixteen. 

[wbrocks67]

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a12020StateBattlegrounds-WIMN.pdf

September 8-13

MN
615 likely voters
MoE: 4.5% for likely voters

Biden 57%
Trump 41%
Neither 1%
Other 0% (but some voters)
Would not vote 0% (no voters)
No opinion 1%

WI
605 likely voters
MoE: 4.5% for likely voters

Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Neither 1%
Other 0% (but some voters)
Would not vote 0% (no voters)
No opinion 1%

These 0% for neither/other/etc are beautiful sight to see

[wbrocks67]

Minnesota number won’t be anywhere close to reality.  Anyways terrible polling day for the Incumbent.

Interesting that state polls have clearly gotten better for Biden while national polls got marginally worse.

I thought the same thing, but I guess we haven't gotten a *ton* of high quality national polling lately besides Fox. YouGov has been stable, we'll see today...

[Brittain33]

Dave Wasserman asks what this string of good polls in WI and MN means for Iowa.

[Gustaf]

The Minnesota poll moved Biden's win probability by 3% at 538.

[wbrocks67]

Dave Wasserman asks what this string of good polls in WI and MN means for Iowa.

Yeah, I feel like we're due for a new Selzer poll. They've kind of been slacking, we hvaen't gotten anything from them since like June

[Brittain33]

The Minnesota numbers are not believable.

No, but even if they’re off by 5-8 points the result would still be very encouraging for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

I'm glad I wasn't the only one who thought this framing was absurd. Whoever wrote this write up really doing a LOT to make it seem like a 6 pt difference is somehow tied

https://twitter.com/IChotiner/status/1306077200140005376