ABC/Washington Post: Minnesota - Biden +16 | Wisconsin - Biden +6

[Calthrina950]

The confidence I've been seeing from Trump supporters is astounding given how far behind he is and has been since March. Counting on massive polling errors, both nationally and in state polls across multiple states, seems like a poor reason to believe Trump is favored. If TX was Trump+16 and AZ was Trump+6 I don't think pundits would be saying the race is a pure tossup.

Trump supporters have make it clear that they do not believe the polls, and that the polls are being "rigged" to disadvantage Trump. Many of them have also said that the polls are underestimating the true extent of Trump's support. And in addition to all of this, they have bought into the conspiracy theories which say that voter fraud will work to the advantage of Biden and Democrats this year, as it supposedly did for the Democrats in 2018 and for Clinton in 2016.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's really embarrassing that any of you believe that Minnesota number. When Biden does not get 57% in Minnesota, and gets maybe 53% at best, maybe we can put to bed the idea that any Democrat that polls at or slightly above 50% is secure in their election. Maybe, some polls are just bad? Crazy idea unless it's Rasmussen or Trafalgar.

[Holmes]

It's really embarrassing that any of you believe that Minnesota number. When Biden does not get 57% in Minnesota, and gets maybe 53% at best, maybe we can put to bed the idea that any Democrat that polls at or slightly above 50% is secure in their election. Maybe, some polls are just bad? Crazy idea unless it's Rasmussen or Trafalgar.

I mean this kind of feels like a post you make after the election when the vote is all in rather than one you make 50 days prior to the election in the hopes you come across as smarter than everyone else.

[CellarDoor]

I don't know who needs to hear this but there hasn't been a 14 point swing in Minnesota after the state just watched it's cities get set on fire and then it's governor & mayor appease them.

Violence has been an issue in many states, and the President himself has a history of dividing the country and inciting violence.  His opponent, on the other hand, has condemned violence on all sides and has a consistent message of bringing the country together.

In case you are not aware, Trump is the current President and Biden is his opponent.

That said, a poll showing a 14 point swing doesn't necessarily mean that the polling firm is garbage.  Even the best polling firms with the best methodologies will produce outlier results from time to time.  Their willingness to publish a poll that goes against the grain is a sign that the polling firm itself believes in their methodology.  It could also be that we've seen a significant swing toward Biden in places like MN, but that swing is not 14 points and the difference is within the margin of error.

[Badger]

I don't know who needs to hear this but there hasn't been a 14 point swing in Minnesota after the state just watched it's cities get set on fire and then it's governor & mayor appease them.

You really need to do better than this.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's really embarrassing that any of you believe that Minnesota number. When Biden does not get 57% in Minnesota, and gets maybe 53% at best, maybe we can put to bed the idea that any Democrat that polls at or slightly above 50% is secure in their election. Maybe, some polls are just bad? Crazy idea unless it's Rasmussen or Trafalgar.

I mean this kind of feels like a post you make after the election when the vote is all in rather than one you make 50 days prior to the election in the hopes you come across as smarter than everyone else.

My point is not to sound "smarter" than anyone else. It is not difficult to spot something that is very obviously wrong. And Historically in the last 30 years, Minnesota has never voted more than 5 points left of Wisconsin. Moreover, Minnesota voted to the right of the national vote in '16, this poll is suggesting almost certainly at least a 5 point Dem trend. That would show up in other states with similar electorates (these states are not vacuums). I'm not being "bold" by suggesting this is a bad poll, many people just refuse to recognize an obviously inaccurate poll when it benefits their candidate and twist themselves full of excuses to validate the result they like.

[It’s so Joever]

It's really embarrassing that any of you believe that Minnesota number. When Biden does not get 57% in Minnesota, and gets maybe 53% at best, maybe we can put to bed the idea that any Democrat that polls at or slightly above 50% is secure in their election. Maybe, some polls are just bad? Crazy idea unless it's Rasmussen or Trafalgar.

I mean this kind of feels like a post you make after the election when the vote is all in rather than one you make 50 days prior to the election in the hopes you come across as smarter than everyone else.

My point is not to sound "smarter" than anyone else. It is not difficult to spot something that is very obviously wrong. And Historically in the last 30 years, Minnesota has never voted more than 5 points left of Wisconsin. Moreover, Minnesota voted to the right of the national vote in '16, this poll is suggesting almost certainly at least a 5 point Dem trend. That would show up in other states with similar electorates (these states are not vacuums). I'm not being "bold" by suggesting this is a bad poll, many people just refuse to recognize an obviously inaccurate poll when it benefits their candidate and twist themselves full of excuses to validate the result they like.

You are correct.
WI and MN will vote within a point of eachother imho.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Wisconsin seems to consistently be polling in Biden's favor by the mid single digits, which seems about right. There is no way that Biden is winning Minnesota by that much though. Cut the margin by a third, or even half and then it's realistic. Still though, it's more confirmation that Trump is not going to be able to expand on his 2016 map and that his path is still quite narrow with little room for error.