Targoz Market Research/PollSmart Market Research: Biden +1%

[It’s so Joever]

I actually have to side a bit with Beet on this one.
Although Biden still is favored, the recent changes this past week have been somewhat disturbing.
Now, some of it is statistical noise/deviation, and Beet’s worst case scenario idea is unlikely to happen, but let’s look at the poll averages.

Biden is now at +5.8. I think this number could be lower than what it really is, but we don’t know. What I can say is, this is Trump’s best polling average since May.

Additionally, Trump actually has led in a poll on RCP for the first time since February. Yes, it’s a Rassy, but even Biden was leading in Rassy polls since...well last year.

I think it’s likely this is just noise, but if it doesn’t revert back within two weeks,  I would be extremely concerned.

Biden has fluctuated (as is typical with polling) but remained steady. The polls are doing what I said months ago they'd do--the Trump supporters are coming home. I wish people would stop treating this as if Biden's collapsing when he's not, but of course expecting rational logic on Atlas is asking far too much.

That’s definitely a likely situation.
As I said, it would be more concerning if it didn’t revert back to the mean within a few weeks.

[Dr. Arch]

I actually have to side a bit with Beet on this one.
Although Biden still is favored, the recent changes this past week have been somewhat disturbing.
Now, some of it is statistical noise/deviation, and Beet’s worst case scenario idea is unlikely to happen, but let’s look at the poll averages.

Biden is now at +5.8. I think this number could be lower than what it really is, but we don’t know. What I can say is, this is Trump’s best polling average since May.

Additionally, Trump actually has led in a poll on RCP for the first time since February. Yes, it’s a Rassy, but even Biden was leading in Rassy polls since...well last year.

I think it’s likely this is just noise, but if it doesn’t revert back within two weeks,  I would be extremely concerned.

Biden has fluctuated (as is typical with polling) but remained steady. The polls are doing what I said months ago they'd do--the Trump supporters are coming home. I wish people would stop treating this as if Biden's collapsing when he's not, but of course expecting rational logic on Atlas is asking far too much.

That’s definitely a likely situation.
As I said, it would be more concerning if it didn’t revert back to the mean within a few weeks.

We would also see a shift in state polling towards Trump, which has not surfaced basically anywhere, so there's that.

[Alben Barkley]

I actually have to side a bit with Beet on this one.
Although Biden still is favored, the recent changes this past week have been somewhat disturbing.
Now, some of it is statistical noise/deviation, and Beet’s worst case scenario idea is unlikely to happen, but let’s look at the poll averages.

Biden is now at +5.8. I think this number could be lower than what it really is, but we don’t know. What I can say is, this is Trump’s best polling average since May.

Additionally, Trump actually has led in a poll on RCP for the first time since February. Yes, it’s a Rassy, but even Biden was leading in Rassy polls since...well last year.

I think it’s likely this is just noise, but if it doesn’t revert back within two weeks,  I would be extremely concerned.

1. RCP is garbage.

2. FiveThirtyEight has shown no notable change nationally.

3. The state polls are if anything improving for Biden.

4. Rasmussen is garbage and should not be taken seriously no matter what it says. In fact, according to their own polls, Biden is set to lose the popular vote yet win the electoral college. Including Ohio.

[Horus]

Targoz is no less credible than Emerson. Still, even I think Biden is up by more than this. Probably 3 or 4.

[WD]

Targoz is no less credible than Emerson. Still, even I think Biden is up by more than this. Probably 6 or 7.

FTFY

[tjstarling]

This poll is a bit stale also. But just throw it in the average and move on.

[Buzz]

Thank you.

[DaleCooper]

Targoz nailed it last year during the gubernatorial races.

They had Beshear winning by 15 points last year. I wouldn't exactly call that "nailed it."

People that don't know what they're talking about think that polls are all about calling the winner. He would think that a 2016 Wisconsin poll that had Trump leading by 40 points was more accurate than a Hillary +3 poll, simply because it got the winner right, or more importantly, because it tells him what he wants to hear.

[DaleCooper]

Also, are these weird obscure pollsters strategically waiting until there's a lack of quality polling to release their crazy Trump fan-fic numbers? This happened during the conventions, where a bunch of strange polls showed states tightening but then once polls from reputable organizations came out, it became clear that Biden had solidified his lead in all the swing states.

So far Ipsos, Economist, and Monmouth have indicated that Biden's lead remains in the high single-digits, while Fox News put him at 5 points.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This does not add up with any of the state polls we are seeing. It's funny how the inverse used to be true. I don't like to reject a poll I don't like so easily but there is no way that Biden is performing so well in state polls yet only leading by such a minuscule amount. Either this poll is incredibly wrong or every other poll is, even other national polls.

Uh-oh! Maybe it's the "Despacito" slump!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have gone through this over and over, that Bush W was able to win reelection by solidifying IA and OH due to VA, CO, NV and NM going D on 911 and SSM ban. Hillary was scandaled, if she would of ran in 2008 she would not been blanched, but Obama won instead.

Trump won't be able to crack 278 wall with Jorgensen and Kayne West, he won with Gary Johnson whom Rs got to play spoiler just like in 2000 with Nadar

[Rand]

We have gone through this over and over...

olawakandi is Hulking up, everybody....