Which was a bigger factor in Biden's win?

[EJ24]

?

[TML]

Trump didn't make any significant efforts to expand his appeal beyond his base. Exit polls from 2016 and 2020 showed that Trump won independent voters 46-42 in 2016 but lost them 41-54 in 2020. Back in 2016 independents were attracted to Trump based on his outsider status but by 2020 they were fed up with his incompetence.

[sting in the rafters]

Little bit of both 2 and 3. Variable-T did scare away independents and moderates, however Biden was the type of candidate that could successfully unite their coalition.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trump didn't make any significant efforts to expand his appeal beyond his base. Exit polls from 2016 and 2020 showed that Trump won independent voters 46-42 in 2016 but lost them 41-54 in 2020. Back in 2016 independents were attracted to Trump based on his outsider status but by 2020 they were fed up with his incompetence.

No way Independent voters swung 17% to the left. No County in the USA besides Henry Country swung that far to the left.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Options three and four are kind of inseparable if you ask me. But they are definitely the biggest factor of these four.

[RINO Tom]

2016 Electorate: 36% DEM, 33% GOP, 31% IND
2020 Electorate: 37% DEM, 36% GOP, 26% IND

Both parties consolidated partisan support by about the same adjustment from 2016 to 2020.  The difference was...

2016 Independents: 46% Trump, 42% Clinton
2020 Independents: 54% Biden, 41% Trump

Say what you want about exit polls, but you don't exactly need to analyze precinct results to figure this one out.

[Mr. Smith]

1 and 4.

Biden pretty much pulled a Luigi and won by doing nothing.

[Motorcity]

Mostly 1 and 3, with a hint of four

For point 1: Trump's narrow win in 2016 showed that elections do matter and every vote counts. This made a lot of Democrats who stay home to come out and vote. It also made a lot of people who voted third party in 2016 to come to their senses and vote Democrat.

For point 3: Biden's improvements with suburban moderates and independents are clearly seen in exit polls


I think number 2 is just silly. I like Biden but there wasn't any Democrat who was like "normally I wouldn't come out and vote but since Biden is the nominee I will". Biden didn't energize any Democrat just for him. Biden was chosen because he was the smart choice for nominee, not because folks who normally don't vote fell in love with him. To clarify, I am not talking about suburban wine moms who voted for Biden but wouldn't have voted for Bernie/Warren in fear of more taxes. These wine moms are former republicans.

[Liberalrocks]

1 and 4, mostly 4.

[Hope For A New Era]

1 and 4. Biden became President very much by being in the right place at the right time.


Which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Roosevelt, Truman, and Johnson were "right place at the right time" presidents too, and they certainly made the most of their circumstances.

[AlterEgo]

The election, like nearly all elections involving an incumbent, was a referendum on the incumbent.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

1, this was a rare instance in which negative enthusiasm won out.

[dw93]

1 with a pinch of 4.

[Non Swing Voter]

3 and 4.

The idea that this was all just about Trump pissing off Democrats is wrong.  For instance, Bernie probably wouldn't have won the election.  He wouldn't have won Georgia.  He probably wouldn't have won Wisconsin or Pennsylvania either.  Not sure about Arizona as he has some weird hispanic appeal.  But candidate quality matters.  45% of the country absolutely hating Trump was a big factor but the most important factor was winning over the 10% who sort of hated Trump but didn't want someone too far to the left either. 

[wbrocks67]

Mostly 1 and 3, with a hint of four

For point 1: Trump's narrow win in 2016 showed that elections do matter and every vote counts. This made a lot of Democrats who stay home to come out and vote. It also made a lot of people who voted third party in 2016 to come to their senses and vote Democrat.

For point 3: Biden's improvements with suburban moderates and independents are clearly seen in exit polls


I think number 2 is just silly. I like Biden but there wasn't any Democrat who was like "normally I wouldn't come out and vote but since Biden is the nominee I will". Biden didn't energize any Democrat just for him. Biden was chosen because he was the smart choice for nominee, not because folks who normally don't vote fell in love with him. To clarify, I am not talking about suburban wine moms who voted for Biden but wouldn't have voted for Bernie/Warren in fear of more taxes. These wine moms are former republicans.

First of all, to say that *nobody* falls into this category is wrong, b/c there's always somebody for every thing. Not to mention, this forum constantly underrates how a lot of normies actually *DO* like Joe Biden.