Of all racial demographics I actually expect Biden to gain the most with Asian Americans in the end.
Well-educated people were strongly R in the 1950's, but are strongly D today. The "Eisenhower Republican" and the "Obama Democrat" seem to have much more in common now than with, respectively, the "Trump Republican" or the "Carter Democrat".
It is amazing that states that Obama won were typically states that Eisenhower also won. Oddly, Obama matches more closely to Eisenhower than any other President, at least to this year.
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gray -- did not vote in 1952 or 1956
white -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice
deep blue -- Republican all four elections
light blue -- Republican all but 2012 (I assume that greater Omaha went for Ike twice)
light green -- Eisenhower once, Stevenson once, Obama never
dark green -- Stevenson twice, Obama never
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once
No state voted Democratic all four times, so no state is in deep red.
I interpret this to mean that the States were much less likely to have flipped their political cultures as that the Parties changed their identities so drastically as they did over fifty years or so. I see Eisenhower as the best analogue for Obama (someone has to be!). If Obama never won a landslide on the scale of Eisenhower... well, other than FDR, no other Democrat has done so in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.
Historical perception is about the same, which suggests similarities of temperament and attitudes toward governing. Both are chilly rationalists; both showed a high regard for the legal process, and both avoided high-risk actions. Both got along well with the military, the diplomatic corps, and the intelligence services. Both had scandal-free administrations. Both failed to strengthen their party's hold on Congress.
It is telling that aside from Hawaii and the District of Columbia that Obama did not win any state that Eisenhower did not win twice. Ike has an excuse on not winning Hawaii or the District of Columbia in that neither was voting in the 1950's.
If anyone has any doubt that the Presidential Election of 1976 is ancient history for all practical purposes:
Carter 1976, Obama 2012
Carter 1976, Obama twice red
Carter 1976, Obama once pink
Carter 1976, Obama never yellow
Ford 1976, Obama twice white
Ford 1976, Obama once light blue
Ford 1976, Obama never blue
White (all in the North and West, except for Virginia) and yellow (all in the South, if one means the Mountain South, the Deep South, and Texas) indicate Party shifts from R to D or D to R, respectively. Jimmy Carter is the last Democratic nominee for President to win Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina, and that will likely stick.
I'm not predicting how 2020 will go except to say that I expect Biden to have a win something like that of Obama in 2008 (OK, exchange Indiana for Arizona) and one of Ike's wins. Biden will definitely not win like Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton according to the map. He is more likely to lose like Hillary Clinton on the map than win either of these.
