AAPIData: Biden +24 among Asian voters (n = 1527, 14% Undecided)
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Author Topic: AAPIData: Biden +24 among Asian voters (n = 1527, 14% Undecided)  (Read 5820 times)
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #25 on: November 17, 2020, 12:26:26 AM »
« edited: November 17, 2020, 12:53:27 AM by khuzifenq »

That AALDEF exit poll has Biden winning 100% of the Pakistani and Arab vote in Michigan. I know that Biden won the overwhelming majority of the vote among Pakistani-Americans and Arab-Americans but there's now way that Biden got 100% lol. I can understand 90% but not 100%.

I think that there might either be a sampling error or they entered the numbers wrong lol. Regardless, it does go to show that exit polls (especially this year) are not the best way to measure support for certain candidates and they should be taken with a grain of salt.

Yeah the AALDEF exit poll probably isn't representative of all Asian American voters, since they said they only focused on 13 states + DC. This is useful for gauging relative support for the candidates in swing states though.

http://aapidata.com/blog/exit-polls-caution/

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« Reply #26 on: November 17, 2020, 12:53:02 AM »

Several comments about this:

I can confirm 57-41 sounds about right for Koreans, being one myself. He's clearly done better among Koreans this year. Trump garnered record share of evangelical Christian votes in 2016. And while I speculated he would slip away a bit with white evangelicals, I always knew he has hasn't hit his ceiling with Korean voters, given that overwhelming % of Korean Americans are evangelical Christians.

Another thing I can confirm is that I have talked to some foreign Chinese students and they speak positively of Trump compared to Chinese Americans.

Filipino Americans going for Trump seems to be an Americanized effect. Most native Filipinos I know are supportive of Trump.

Foreign born and native born may have some confounding variables like age. Older generation are less likely to speak proficient English. My parents voted for Trump. My sister and I voted for Biden. I wonder how much of this is due to age, and not so much due to cultural assimilation.

I would like to see the numbers for Japanese if they were polled at all. My best guess is that Japanese swung toward Trump roughly the same margin as Hawaii did.

1) I always felt like Republicans have a higher floor with Korean Americans than Chinese Americans. Koreans are more religious (specifically more evangelical Protestant), slightly more downscale, and possibly more likely to be small business owners as well. These factors make them a better demographic fit for the Bush-Trump era GOP.

2) I suspect PRC-origin international students are (relatively) supportive of Trump for different reasons than their Taiwanese or Hong Konger counterparts, including class selection. But there's definitely some tacit acceptance of political authoritarianism/majoritarianism and just-world fallacy involved here that I think is specific to ethnic Chinese who were raised in Asia.

3) No comment on Filipino American voters, other than I don't think Americanization is necessarily correlated with Biden support. As far as 1.5+ gens go, I think the bigger factors are educational attainment, religiosity, and maybe gender.

4) Yeah with Asians, age cohort and immigrant generation trump everything else. Younger and more recent immigrants seem much more liberal/left-leaning across the board compared to my parents' generation or yours, although my personal social network probably isn't representative.

5) Agreed. I think most Japanese Americans are in HI and CA. They're much more assimilated than every other Asian group.
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« Reply #27 on: November 17, 2020, 12:29:01 PM »

Several comments about this:

I can confirm 57-41 sounds about right for Koreans, being one myself. He's clearly done better among Koreans this year. Trump garnered record share of evangelical Christian votes in 2016. And while I speculated he would slip away a bit with white evangelicals, I always knew he has hasn't hit his ceiling with Korean voters, given that overwhelming % of Korean Americans are evangelical Christians.

Another thing I can confirm is that I have talked to some foreign Chinese students and they speak positively of Trump compared to Chinese Americans.

Filipino Americans going for Trump seems to be an Americanized effect. Most native Filipinos I know are supportive of Trump.

Foreign born and native born may have some confounding variables like age. Older generation are less likely to speak proficient English. My parents voted for Trump. My sister and I voted for Biden. I wonder how much of this is due to age, and not so much due to cultural assimilation.

I would like to see the numbers for Japanese if they were polled at all. My best guess is that Japanese swung toward Trump roughly the same margin as Hawaii did.

1) I always felt like Republicans have a higher floor with Korean Americans than Chinese Americans. Koreans are more religious (specifically more evangelical Protestant), slightly more downscale, and possibly more likely to be small business owners as well. These factors make them a better demographic fit for the Bush-Trump era GOP.

2) I suspect PRC-origin international students are (relatively) supportive of Trump for different reasons than their Taiwanese or Hong Konger counterparts, including class selection. But there's definitely some tacit acceptance of political authoritarianism/majoritarianism and just-world fallacy involved here that I think is specific to ethnic Chinese who were raised in Asia.

3) No comment on Filipino American voters, other than I don't think Americanization is necessarily correlated with Biden support. As far as 1.5+ gens go, I think the bigger factors are educational attainment, religiosity, and maybe gender.

4) Yeah with Asians, age cohort and immigrant generation trump everything else. Younger and more recent immigrants seem much more liberal/left-leaning across the board compared to my parents' generation or yours, although my personal social network probably isn't representative.

5) Agreed. I think most Japanese Americans are in HI and CA. They're much more assimilated than every other Asian group.

I recall seeing that younger foreign Chinese are more supportive of Trump than the older ones. I can't find that source anymore, but assuming it's true, do you think younger Chinese have more affinity for stronger leaders? I don't think Chinese preferring Trump over Biden or Clinton is just a matter of seeking self-interest for China. I highly doubt younger people are more likely to believe in national interest than older ones.

At first thought, I theorize maybe they like his personality but there seems to be a similar phenomena in Russia where Putin earns higher support from the youth than from the older ones. I doubt that young Russians like Putin for his personality.
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« Reply #28 on: November 17, 2020, 02:10:35 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2020, 02:15:35 PM by Asta »

Btw, the election eve poll you cited seems to understate Trump's support from the exit poll (bolded).

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

The election eve poll missed Vietnamese' Trump support by whopping 41 points; For Koreans, 33 points; Chinese 11 points. The former two are horrible misses if exit poll is to be believed.

1) Which one is more accurate, the exit poll or election eve poll? I know exit poll is less reliable this year but at the same time, they have bigger sample size.

2) Do you have any theory on why there was such a huge error? Sample size of the election eve poll may be partly to blame here but in Indians and Filipinos case, the margins were actually quite accurate.


Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45) 65-31 (Biden +34)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22) 60-38 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)  72-26 (Biden +46)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41) unknown
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48) (57-42 (Biden +15)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25) 41-57 (Trump +16)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)
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« Reply #29 on: November 17, 2020, 02:25:46 PM »

Btw, the election eve poll you cited seems to understate Trump's support from the exit poll (bolded).

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

The election eve poll missed Vietnamese' Trump support by whopping 41 points; For Koreans, 33 points; Chinese 11 points. The former two are horrible misses if exit poll is to be believed.

1) Which one is more accurate, the exit poll or election eve poll? I know exit poll is less reliable this year but at the same time, they have bigger sample size.

2) Do you have any theory on why there was such a huge error? Sample size of the election eve poll may be partly to blame here but in Indians and Filipinos case, the margins were actually quite accurate.


Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45) 65-31 (Biden +34)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22) 60-38 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)  72-26 (Biden +46)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41) unknown
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48) (57-42 (Biden +15)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25) 41-57 (Trump +16)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)

To be honest, I don't entirely trust either poll. I don't think the AALDEF poll is representative of all Asians because they only focused on 13 states + DC. And I'm not sure if the Election Eve poll accounted for Election Day voters. I don't remember if either poll weighed the relative proportions of different Asian subgroups according to CVAP. The AAPI Data Sept 2020 survey definitely did not.

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« Reply #30 on: November 17, 2020, 02:43:54 PM »

Btw, the election eve poll you cited seems to understate Trump's support from the exit poll (bolded).

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

The election eve poll missed Vietnamese' Trump support by whopping 41 points; For Koreans, 33 points; Chinese 11 points. The former two are horrible misses if exit poll is to be believed.

1) Which one is more accurate, the exit poll or election eve poll? I know exit poll is less reliable this year but at the same time, they have bigger sample size.

2) Do you have any theory on why there was such a huge error? Sample size of the election eve poll may be partly to blame here but in Indians and Filipinos case, the margins were actually quite accurate.


Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45) 65-31 (Biden +34)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22) 60-38 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)  72-26 (Biden +46)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41) unknown
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48) (57-42 (Biden +15)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25) 41-57 (Trump +16)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)

To be honest, I don't entirely trust either poll. I don't think the AALDEF poll is representative of all Asians because they only focused on 13 states + DC. And I'm not sure if the Election Eve poll accounted for Election Day voters. I don't remember if either poll weighed the relative proportions of different Asian subgroups according to CVAP. The AAPI Data Sept 2020 survey definitely did not.


13 states shouldn't distort the results too much, because there aren't a whole lot of Asians in unpopulated states. While I am tempted to say that the exit poll is probably far more accurate, exit poll could be disproportionately geared toward Asians that don't speak English proficiently in an attempt to represent more of older Asian voters.

There is a lot more work that needs to be done since Asian voters are disproportionately in bigger states like CA, NY, NJ, TX etc. Drawing roughly same number of voters from each state is going to give a more Trump-friendly result since NY and CA Asians are a lot more liberal than GA Asians.
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« Reply #31 on: November 17, 2020, 02:55:30 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2020, 03:18:53 PM by khuzifenq »

Another thing I can confirm is that I have talked to some foreign Chinese students and they speak positively of Trump compared to Chinese Americans.
2) I suspect PRC-origin international students are (relatively) supportive of Trump for different reasons than their Taiwanese or Hong Konger counterparts, including class selection. But there's definitely some tacit acceptance of political authoritarianism/majoritarianism and just-world fallacy involved here that I think is specific to ethnic Chinese who were raised in Asia.

I recall seeing that younger foreign Chinese are more supportive of Trump than the older ones. I can't find that source anymore, but assuming it's true, do you think younger Chinese have more affinity for stronger leaders? I don't think Chinese preferring Trump over Biden or Clinton is just a matter of seeking self-interest for China. I highly doubt younger people are more likely to believe in national interest than older ones.

At first thought, I theorize maybe they like his personality but there seems to be a similar phenomena in Russia where Putin earns higher support from the youth than from the older ones. I doubt that young Russians like Putin for his personality.

Chinese nationals =/= Chinese international students =/= foreign-born registered voters. I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese international students (who are heavily filtered in terms of class and family income at the undergraduate level) are more supportive of Trump. But I've also heard Chinese international undergraduate students in the US were more supportive of Hillary than Chinese international graduate students who did their undergrad in China.

My comments about authoritarianism and just-world fallacy were more directed at naturalized immigrants to the US, whether from Mainland China, Taiwan, or Hong Kong. It'd be intellectually lazy to describe them using woke language buzzwords. But I don't think it's that much of a stretch to say that many older and working-class Chinese immigrants (whether they came as adults or older children) are "culturally conservative", pro-"law-and-order", and indifferent to self-expression values- to a more visible extent than other Asian subgroups IMO.
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« Reply #32 on: November 17, 2020, 03:13:03 PM »

Btw, the election eve poll you cited seems to understate Trump's support from the exit poll (bolded).

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

The election eve poll missed Vietnamese' Trump support by whopping 41 points; For Koreans, 33 points; Chinese 11 points. The former two are horrible misses if exit poll is to be believed.

1) Which one is more accurate, the exit poll or election eve poll? I know exit poll is less reliable this year but at the same time, they have bigger sample size.

2) Do you have any theory on why there was such a huge error? Sample size of the election eve poll may be partly to blame here but in Indians and Filipinos case, the margins were actually quite accurate.


Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45) 65-31 (Biden +34)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22) 60-38 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)  72-26 (Biden +46)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41) unknown
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48) (57-42 (Biden +15)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25) 41-57 (Trump +16)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)

To be honest, I don't entirely trust either poll. I don't think the AALDEF poll is representative of all Asians because they only focused on 13 states + DC. And I'm not sure if the Election Eve poll accounted for Election Day voters. I don't remember if either poll weighed the relative proportions of different Asian subgroups according to CVAP. The AAPI Data Sept 2020 survey definitely did not.


13 states shouldn't distort the results too much, because there aren't a whole lot of Asians in unpopulated states. While I am tempted to say that the exit poll is probably far more accurate, exit poll could be disproportionately geared toward Asians that don't speak English proficiently in an attempt to represent more of older Asian voters.

There is a lot more work that needs to be done since Asian voters are disproportionately in bigger states like CA, NY, NJ, TX etc. Drawing roughly same number of voters from each state is going to give a more Trump-friendly result since NY and CA Asians are a lot more liberal than GA Asians.

I also suspect the actual vote was closer to the AALDEF exit poll than the AAPI fund Election Eve poll, but they only focused on the following states: DC | CA | FL | GA | LA | MA | MD | MI | NJ | NM | NV | NY | PA | TX | VA. They completely ignored WA, HI, NC, and IL- all of which have significant Asian populations.

Still, both polls came up with the same margin for Biden (68-29 from AALDEF, 68-30 from AAPI Fund)- both of which are consistent with AP's 70-28.
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« Reply #33 on: November 25, 2020, 11:16:54 PM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/25/us/georgia-asian-american-voters.html

Quote
Now there will be six Asian-Americans in the Statehouse, including Michelle Au, a Chinese-American doctor who was elected to the State Senate as a Democrat this month, the result of aggressive voter registration and turnout efforts. In this election, Mr. Woo put ads in Korean-language newspapers, started chats with dozens of voters on KakaoTalk, an app popular among Korean immigrants, and made announcements at his church.

Bee Nguyen, a Democrat who was elected to Georgia’s House District 89 in 2017, said she only realized just how ignored Asian voters had been in 2016 when she was canvassing for Sam Park, the first openly gay Korean-American to run for a State House seat.

“The pattern we saw when we were knocking on doors was that no one had ever talked to these people before,” said Ms. Nguyen, 39, who was born in Iowa to Vietnamese refugees.


I see the NY Times mentioned Viets4Biden.

Quote
The generational divide is particularly pronounced among Vietnamese-Americans. Many of the older generation came to the United States after the fall of Saigon, and a fear of communism runs deep.

“If you went to a Viets for Trump rally they spoke with broken English and if you went to a Viets for Biden rally they spoke broken Vietnamese,” said Ms. Ashling, 40, who came to Georgia in 1988 as a Vietnamese refugee.

This year has stood out, second-generation Vietnamese-Americans said in interviews, because of a flood of misinformation targeting older Vietnamese voters in the form of videos in Vietnamese that have cast Mr. Biden as a communist.

Ms. Ashling said she had found countering it nearly impossible.
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« Reply #34 on: July 11, 2021, 10:29:25 PM »
« Edited: July 11, 2021, 10:40:17 PM by EIRC ADAMS »

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/aaldef-exit-poll-asian-americans-favor-biden-over-trump-68-to-29-played-role-in-close-races-in-georgia-and-other-battleground-states/

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[November 13, 2020] The Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund (AALDEF) today released new data from its exit poll of 5,424 Asian American voters in 13 states and Washington, DC, noting the importance of the Asian American vote in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada.

Jerry Vattamala, AALDEF Democracy Program Director, said “Despite the challenges of the pandemic, we dispatched more than 400 volunteers to polling places, interacting with voters in English and nine Asian languages through paper surveys or by providing voters with QR codes to complete the surveys online.”

Among all Asian American voters polled:

Asian Americans favored Joe Biden over Donald Trump by a margin of 68% to 29%.
* There was no gender gap between Asian American men and women, with 67% of women and 66% of men voting for Biden and both groups supporting Trump at 31%.
* The only ethnic group to favor Trump were Vietnamese American voters, by a margin of 57% to 41%.
The breakdown of voters by ethnicity was as follows:



[most D] Bangladeshi > Pakistani > Indo-Caribbean > Arab > Multi-Asian >> Indian >> Other Asian > Chinese > Filipino > Korean > Cambodian >> Vietnamese [most R]

Sigh, I figured there'd be at least one exit poll showing Trump won the Vietnamese vote. I wonder where the discrepancy between this and the AAPI Fund Election Eve poll showing Biden won Vietnamese Americans by over 20 points is coming from.

It looks like the Indian, Korean, Vietnamese, and maybe Filipino + Chinese votes all swung significantly toward Trump.  The Chinese results from this poll are roughly the same as what 2016 NAAS exit polls showed.


Quote
First-Time Voters, Political Party, Nativity, English Language Proficiency, and Gender

• 27% were first-time voters; 73% were not first-time voters.

• 54% were registered Democrats; 16% were registered Republicans; 27% were not enrolled in a party; and 3% were enrolled in another party.

• 27% were native-born U.S. citizens; 73% were foreign-born naturalized citizens.

• 7% were limited English proficient (LEP); and 63% spoke English well.

• 52.9% were Female; 46.7% were Male; 0.4% Non-Binary.

Those limited English proficiency numbers (52-46) are terrible for Biden lmao. Surprisingly, the first-time vote was slightly more favorable for Trump (30%) than the non-first-time vote (29%).




Damn, those are North Korea margins among Bangladeshis and Pakistanis. Very surprised Trump didn't even get 10%.

How do the 2016 numbers compare for these groups?

EDIT: Found them


Image Link

Interesting, so it looks like most third-party votes went to Trump but Biden didn't lose much ground from Clinton.

On the other hand, most Asian groups swung to Trump and Biden got a lower voteshare than Clinton.

This is especially pronounced among Cambodians, who went from 78% for Clinton to 56% for Biden. That's even more than the Venezuelan swing. What happened there?
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« Reply #35 on: July 12, 2021, 12:52:11 AM »

I'm guessing Cambodians have an extra strong fear of socialism.
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« Reply #36 on: July 12, 2021, 01:15:38 AM »


Damn, those are North Korea margins among Bangladeshis and Pakistanis. Very surprised Trump didn't even get 10%.

How do the 2016 numbers compare for these groups?

EDIT: Found them

-snip-


You're comparing apples and oranges- those are 2 different exit polls. Here are the 2016 AALDEF crosstabs, which are much more D than the 2020 version (and probably more D than the overall Asian American electorate in 2016).

2016 AALDEF- probably too D
Pakistani: 96-2
Bangladeshi: 96-3
Indo-Caribbean: 91-8
Arab [?]: 86-9
Indian: 84-14
Korean: 84-14
Cambodian: 84-14
Chinese: 73-24
Filipino: 71-27
Vietnamese: 65-32
OVERALL: 79-18

2020 AALDEF- possibly more R than the precinct-level data suggests?
Pakistani: 89-7 (->13%)
Bangladeshi: 91-8 (->10%)
Indo-Caribbean: 86-14 (->11%)
Arab [?]: 84-15 (->8%)
Indian: 72-26 (->24%)
Korean: 57-42 (->55%)
Cambodian: 56-42 (->56%)
Chinese: 65-31 (->15%)
Filipino: 60-38 (->22%)
Vietnamese: 41-57 (->49%)
OVERALL: 68-29 (->22%)



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« Reply #37 on: July 12, 2021, 09:53:42 AM »

It looks like Koreans shifted heavily from 2016 - they must have liked the Kim Jong-Un talks and/or believed that the talks actually accomplished something.

Those who fled Communism (Vietnam, Cambodia) also shifted. Probably they didnt consider Biden militaristic enough, unlike Hillary. I suspect Hmong would also have fallen into this group.

The choice of Harris doesn't seem to have helped much (or any) with Indians, especially considering Trump's attempts to link with the Modi types.

I also find it odd that they didnt separate out Japanese in 2020 even though they are a fairly large group. Presumably they fall into other Asian, with a good mix of multi Asian.
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« Reply #38 on: July 12, 2021, 11:39:02 AM »

It looks like Koreans shifted heavily from 2016 - they must have liked the Kim Jong-Un talks and/or believed that the talks actually accomplished something.

My spidey senses tell me it wasn’t cause of Kim Jong-un. Honestly I think the KorAm electorate is a better demographic fit for the GOP coalition than some folks want to admit. For example, Trump allegedly won GA Koreans while losing GA Indians, Chinese, and Viets.

Those who fled Communism (Vietnam, Cambodia) also shifted. Probably they didnt consider Biden militaristic enough, unlike Hillary. I suspect Hmong would also have fallen into this group.

Also true for Chinese. I think a huge (if not most important) part of the R swings among non-Chinese groups was due to 45’s anti-China rhetoric.

The choice of Harris doesn't seem to have helped much (or any) with Indians, especially considering Trump's attempts to link with the Modi types.

I also find it odd that they didnt separate out Japanese in 2020 even though they are a fairly large group. Presumably they fall into other Asian, with a good mix of multi Asian.

I’ve seen a depressing number of Reddit anecdotes about Boomer immigrants saying they’d vote for Trump because Harris was on the ticket. But I don’t think Modi types would’ve been swayed with an Indian VP.

My guess is that AALDEF focuses more on recent, non-English speaking immigrants in urban cores, which would explain the D skew in 2016 and why they don’t have a separate Japanese category. It doesn’t include a bunch of states that have large Asian voting populations- including HI.
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« Reply #39 on: July 12, 2021, 01:21:00 PM »

Most Indian Biden voters I know hate Kamala too and it made it less likely they vote for Biden not more. When she was picked a few were saying they will no longer vote for Biden , though they eventually decided to vote for Biden but it was more cause they liked Biden/disliked Trump than they liked Kamala.


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« Reply #40 on: July 13, 2021, 11:26:36 AM »

It looks like Koreans shifted heavily from 2016 - they must have liked the Kim Jong-Un talks and/or believed that the talks actually accomplished something.

My spidey senses tell me it wasn’t cause of Kim Jong-un. Honestly I think the KorAm electorate is a better demographic fit for the GOP coalition than some folks want to admit. For example, Trump allegedly won GA Koreans while losing GA Indians, Chinese, and Viets.

Its true that Koreans can be conservative, especially among Christians. But the issue here is that they had a 55 point swing from 2016, and I dont think you can explain that without something specific to the issues, whether Kim or something else.

Those who fled Communism (Vietnam, Cambodia) also shifted. Probably they didnt consider Biden militaristic enough, unlike Hillary. I suspect Hmong would also have fallen into this group.

Also true for Chinese. I think a huge (if not most important) part of the R swings among non-Chinese groups was due to 45’s anti-China rhetoric.

Although we officially dont allow economic immigrants, most mainland Chinese seem to immigrate for economic reasons (jobs, higher education for those not at the very top of their class) and really couldnt care less about communism or capitalism. ...as opposed to Vietnamese who really did flee Communism, whether because they worked with South Vietnam/USA or they no longer had their mini-fiefdoms to rule over.
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« Reply #41 on: July 14, 2021, 12:11:13 AM »

It looks like Koreans shifted heavily from 2016 - they must have liked the Kim Jong-Un talks and/or believed that the talks actually accomplished something.

My spidey senses tell me it wasn’t cause of Kim Jong-un. Honestly I think the KorAm electorate is a better demographic fit for the GOP coalition than some folks want to admit. For example, Trump allegedly won GA Koreans while losing GA Indians, Chinese, and Viets.

Its true that Koreans can be conservative, especially among Christians. But the issue here is that they had a 55 point swing from 2016, and I dont think you can explain that without something specific to the issues, whether Kim or something else.

That's the thing, I don't think the 2016 data is accurate. We shouldn't realistically expect it to be either, because the AALDEF exit polls don't cover the entire country. 84% Hillary sounds too high for Koreans and 14% Trump sounds too low.

But in all seriousness, I do think Korean Americans are a better demographic fit for the GOP coalition than say Chinese Americans as a whole. And I'm not just talking about religiosity and religious affiliation here.

Those who fled Communism (Vietnam, Cambodia) also shifted. Probably they didnt consider Biden militaristic enough, unlike Hillary. I suspect Hmong would also have fallen into this group.

Also true for Chinese. I think a huge (if not most important) part of the R swings among non-Chinese groups was due to 45’s anti-China rhetoric.

Although we officially dont allow economic immigrants, most mainland Chinese seem to immigrate for economic reasons (jobs, higher education for those not at the very top of their class) and really couldnt care less about communism or capitalism. ...as opposed to Vietnamese who really did flee Communism, whether because they worked with South Vietnam/USA or they no longer had their mini-fiefdoms to rule over.

That doesn't mean Mainland Chinese immigrant voters aren't affected by the legacy of Mao's tenure, especially considering how many of them lived through that period. You'd be surprised how much of the right-wing propaganda propagating on WeChat and other online spaces consists of "muh socialism" smears and comparisons with the Cultural Revolution.

There are also many recent Vietnamese immigrants here now, especially in the bigger metros. The Vietnamese American population is still growing (unlike the Korean and Japanese American populations) thanks to ongoing immigration from Vietnam. In my experience, they're demographically similar to the more recent PRC and Indian immigrants and vote accordingly. They might still be relatively R-leaning (possibly more than I expected), but they're definitely more D than the 1975er refugee generation.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #42 on: July 18, 2021, 06:23:11 PM »

Donald Trump cannot recognize the validity of any tradition other than his own -- whatever that is.
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« Reply #43 on: September 04, 2022, 10:37:36 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2022, 01:15:28 PM by MR. MAXWELL ALEJANDRO FROST »

https://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/aavs2020_crosstab_national.html

https://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Slides-AAVS-2020-sep15.pdf w/ charts


Crosstabs skew over 50.

Battleground State Asians seem more pro-Trump than Safe D/Safe R State Asians.


Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.





2022 recalled vote: https://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/AAVS-2022-Embargoed-7-21.pdf

Overall sample- Biden +36 (Biden % +9, Trump % -3 from Sept 2020 pre-election voter survey)



By Ethnic Group
Quote
AsAmIndianChineseFilipinoJapaneseKoreanVietnamese
Joe Biden63%71%69%59%66%66%36%
Donald Trump27%15%20%33%25%27%53%
Some other candidate1%0%2%1%1%2%1%
Did not vote7%10%6%5%9%6%8%
Don't know2%0%3%2%0%0%2%
N1558297323251218262207

When you factor out 2020 nonvoters this comes out to something more like:
Overall: 68-29 (Biden +39)
Indian: 79-17 (Biden +62)
Chinese: 73-21 (Biden +52)
Filipino: 62-35 (Biden +27)
Japanese: 72-27 (Biden +45)
Korean: 70-29 (Biden +41)
Vietnamese: 39-58 (Trump +19)



By Gender
Quote
AsAmMaleFemale
Joe Biden63%60%65%
Donald Trump27%30%25%
Some other candidate1%1%1%
Did not vote7%7%8%
Don't know2%2%1%
N1558765785

Factoring out nonvoters:
Overall: 68-29 (Biden +39)
Men: 65-32 (Biden +33)
Women: 71-27 (Biden +44)



By age:
Quote
AsAm18-3435-49>50
Joe Biden63%67%66%58%
Donald Trump27%22%23%33%
Some other candidate1%1%2%1%
Did not vote7%9%9%5%
Don't know2%1%1%3%
N1556370444742

Factoring out nonvoters:
Overall: 68-29 (Biden +39)
<35: 74-24 (Biden +50)
35-49: 73-25 (Biden +48)
>50: 61-35 (Biden +26)



By Nativity
Quote
AsAmNative BornForeign Born
Joe Biden63%71%59%
Donald Trump27%22%30%
Some other candidate1%2%1%
Did not vote7%5%8%
Don't know2%1%2%
N1558733825

Factoring out nonvoters:
Overall: 68-29 (Biden +39)
US-born: 75-23 (Biden +52)
Foreign-born: 64-33 (Biden +31)



The last two sections weren't from the 2020 voter survey-

By region:
Quote
AsAmNortheastMidwestSouthWest
Joe Biden63%67%65%55%64%
Donald Trump27%21%21%35%28%
Some other candidate1%2%0%1%1%
Did not vote7%8%12%8%6%
Don't know2%2%2%0%2%
N1558312162360724

Factoring out nonvoters:
Overall: 68-29 (Biden +39)
Northeast: 73-23 (Biden +50)
Midwest: 74-24 (Biden +50)
South: 60-38 (Biden +22)
West: 68-30 (Biden +38)


By Partisan ID:
Quote
AsAmDI/OR
Joe Biden63%93%52%12%
Donald Trump27%3%32%80%
Some other candidate1%0%2%0%
Did not vote7%3%12%7%
Don't know1%0%3%1%
N1529705532292

Factoring out nonvoters:
Overall: 68-29 (Biden +39)
Dem: 96-3 (Biden +93)
Ind/Other/NA: 59-36 (Biden +23)
GOP: 13-86 (Trump +73)
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