AAPIData: Biden +24 among Asian voters (n = 1527, 14% Undecided)
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Author Topic: AAPIData: Biden +24 among Asian voters (n = 1527, 14% Undecided)  (Read 5823 times)
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khuzifenq
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« on: September 15, 2020, 07:45:31 PM »
« edited: September 15, 2020, 08:36:56 PM by khuzifenq »

https://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/aavs2020_crosstab_national.html

https://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Slides-AAVS-2020-sep15.pdf w/ charts


Crosstabs skew over 50.

Battleground State Asians seem more pro-Trump than Safe D/Safe R State Asians.


Quote
Q9: Thinking about the upcoming November election for President…If the election were being held today would you be inclined to vote for…?

Source: 2020 Asian American Voter Survey (AAVS) by APIAVote, AAPI Data, and Asian Americans Advancing Justice | AAJC
Note: Totals might not add to 100 due to rounding

By Age
Quote
Asian Am   18 to 34   35 to 49   50 plus
Joe Biden   54%   66%   58%   44%
Donald Trump   30%   20%   30%   36%
Some other candidate   0%   0%   2%   0%
Don't know   14%   14%   10%   18%
N   1527   380   446   701

By Gender
Quote
Asian Am   Male   Female
Joe Biden   54%   54%   54%
Donald Trump   30%   34%   26%
Some other candidate   0%   2%   0%
Don't know   14%   10%   18%
N   1527   739   788

By Nativity
Quote
Asian Am   Native Born   Foreign Born
Joe Biden   54%   68%   48%
Donald Trump   30%   20%   34%
Some other candidate   0%   2%   0%
Don't know   14%   10%   18%
N   1527   831   696

By Ethnic Group
Quote
Asian Am   Asian Indian   Chinese   Filipino   Japanese   Korean   Vietnamese
Joe Biden   54%   66%   56%   52%   62%   58%   36%
Donald Trump   30%   28%   20%   34%   24%   26%   48%
Some other candidate   0%   0%   2%   2%   0%   0%   0%
Don't know   14%   6%   22%   12%   14%   16%   16%
N   1527   254   303   262   226   229   253

By Geography
Quote
Asian Am   CA   NY   All other states
Joe Biden   54%   56%   56%   54%
Donald Trump   30%   28%   22%   32%
Some other candidate   0%   0%   2%   0%
Don't know   14%   16%   20%   14%
N   1527   597   124   806

By State Lean
Quote
Asian Am   Safe D   Battleground   Safe R
Joe Biden   54%   56%   46%   66%
Donald Trump   30%   28%   38%   26%
Some other candidate   0%   2%   0%   0%
Don't know   14%   14%   18%   10%
N   1527   1172   286   69

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« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2020, 07:49:32 PM »

I'm assuming this is of adults as they don't appear to have implemented a registered/likely voter screen.
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2020, 07:52:10 PM »

https://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/aavs2020_crosstab_national.html

By Ethnic Group
Quote
Asian Am   Asian Indian   Chinese   Filipino   Japanese   Korean   Vietnamese
Joe Biden   54%   66%   56%   52%   62%   58%   36%
Donald Trump   30%   28%   20%   34%   24%   26%   48%
Some other candidate   0%   0%   2%   2%   0%   0%   0%
Don't know   14%   6%   22%   12%   14%   16%   16%
N   1527   254   303   262   226   229   253

In terms of margins, this comes out to:

Viet (-12) > Filipino (+18) > Korean (+32) > Chinese (+36) > Japanese (+38) > Indian (+38)


Based on 2016 exit polls, the 2018 AA Voter Survey, and the 2019 survey on Dem primary preferences among CA Asians, I'd say:

(most GOP) Vietnamese > Filipino > Chinese (incl. Taiwanese) >>> Korean, Japanese, Hmong, Other SE Asian >>> Indian >>> Pakistani, Bangladeshi (most Dem)


I'm assuming this is of adults as they don't appear to have implemented a registered/likely voter screen.

Of course, the age crosstabs categories are: 18-34, 35-49, and 50+
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2020, 09:12:12 PM »

https://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/aavs2020_crosstab_national.html

By Ethnic Group
Quote
Asian Am   Asian Indian   Chinese   Filipino   Japanese   Korean   Vietnamese
Joe Biden   54%   66%   56%   52%   62%   58%   36%
Donald Trump   30%   28%   20%   34%   24%   26%   48%
Some other candidate   0%   0%   2%   2%   0%   0%   0%
Don't know   14%   6%   22%   12%   14%   16%   16%
N   1527   254   303   262   226   229   253

In terms of margins, this comes out to:

Viet (-12) > Filipino (+18) > Korean (+32) > Chinese (+36) > Japanese (+38) > Indian (+38)


Based on 2016 exit polls, the 2018 AA Voter Survey, and the 2019 survey on Dem primary preferences among CA Asians, I'd say:

(most GOP) Vietnamese > Filipino > Chinese (incl. Taiwanese) >>> Korean, Japanese, Hmong, Other SE Asian >>> Indian >>> Pakistani, Bangladeshi (most Dem)


I'm assuming this is of adults as they don't appear to have implemented a registered/likely voter screen.

Of course, the age crosstabs categories are: 18-34, 35-49, and 50+


Interesting...

Regarding the Vietnamese-American vote, naturally I am curious about how that jives with House Polls out of a few House Districts in CA & TX....
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« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2020, 09:20:08 PM »

Vietnamese-Americans hate China, which draws them to Trump. Unfortunately for him, the geography and voting eligibility of that group doesn’t really help him out where he needs it. My husband has a rather large family in San Jose and many of them support Trump’s aggressiveness with China, but even if they adored him almost none of them are eligible to vote.
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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2020, 09:30:25 PM »

I would imagine that most of the undecideds will end up voting for Biden. According to AALDEF (which is more reliable than mainstream exit polls because they conduct interviews in various Asian languages), Hillary got 79% of the Asian vote.

Also, according to AALDEF, Asian voters overwhelmingly voted for Democratic candidates in the 2018 midterms (in the 75-81% range). Joe Biden will receive about the same level of support.
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2020, 11:59:54 AM »

Vietnamese-Americans hate China, which draws them to Trump. Unfortunately for him, the geography and voting eligibility of that group doesn’t really help him out where he needs it. My husband has a rather large family in San Jose and many of them support Trump’s aggressiveness with China, but even if they adored him almost none of them are eligible to vote.

There is a decent sized Vietnamese population in Texas. I have family there who would vote Trump (I think) but aren’t citizens yet.
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2020, 02:40:41 PM »

I would imagine that most of the undecideds will end up voting for Biden. According to AALDEF (which is more reliable than mainstream exit polls because they conduct interviews in various Asian languages), Hillary got 79% of the Asian vote.

Also, according to AALDEF, Asian voters overwhelmingly voted for Democratic candidates in the 2018 midterms (in the 75-81% range). Joe Biden will receive about the same level of support.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Poll results:
Indian: 66-28-0-6
Chinese: 56-20-2-22
Filipino: 52-34-2-12
Japanese: 62-24-0-14
Korean: 58-26-0-16
Vietnamese: 36-48-0-16
ALL: 54-30-2-14

My estimate- based on gut feeling, the (non-AALDEF) 2016 exit polls, and AAPIData's undecided percentages:
Indian: Biden 65-75, Trump 25-30
Chinese: Biden 64-72, Trump 25-35
Filipino: Biden 60-75, Trump 20-35
Japanese: Biden 68-76, Trump 20-28
Korean: Biden 66-76, Trump 24-30
Vietnamese: Biden 45-55, Trump 43-53
ALL: Biden 65-75, Trump 24-30

I think an AADLEF-type poll that does a good job reaching urban Asian immigrants and their children will show similar results to the more Biden-favorable end of my estimates.
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2020, 02:48:37 PM »


Biden-Trump-Other-Not Sure

ALL: 54-30-0-14 [n = 1527]
Safe D: 56-28-2-14 [n = 1172]
Battleground: 46-38-0-18 [n = 286]
Safe R: 66-26-0-10 [n = 69]
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2020, 10:07:54 PM »

Yeah no.
Trump will do even worse with Asians as a whole than in 2016.
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2020, 01:52:40 PM »

The new version of the "Jewish vote", if more diverse than Jews. (OK, Korean-Americans aren't that similar to Filipino-Americans). Diverse as they are they honor education and despise irrationality.

Showing some personal coziness to Emperor Kim Jong-Un probably did great harm to Trump with Korean-Americans or Japanese-Americans.

 
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2020, 06:36:50 PM »

Of all racial demographics I actually expect Biden to gain the most with Asian Americans in the end.
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« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2020, 02:39:21 AM »

Of all racial demographics I actually expect Biden to gain the most with Asian Americans in the end.

Well-educated people were strongly R in the 1950's, but are strongly D today. The "Eisenhower Republican" and the "Obama Democrat" seem to have much more in common now than with, respectively, the "Trump Republican" or the "Carter Democrat".

It is amazing that states that Obama won were typically states that Eisenhower also won. Oddly, Obama matches more closely to Eisenhower than any other President, at least to this year.

 .

 
gray -- did not vote in 1952 or 1956
white -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice
deep blue -- Republican all four elections
light blue -- Republican all but 2012 (I assume that greater Omaha went for Ike twice)
light green -- Eisenhower once, Stevenson once, Obama never
dark green -- Stevenson twice, Obama never
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once

No state voted Democratic all four times, so no state is in deep red.

I interpret this to mean that the States were much less likely to have flipped their political cultures as that the Parties changed their identities so drastically as they did over fifty years or so. I see Eisenhower as the best analogue for Obama (someone has to be!). If Obama never won a landslide on the scale of Eisenhower... well, other than FDR, no other Democrat has done so in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.

Historical perception is about the same, which suggests similarities of temperament and attitudes toward governing. Both are chilly rationalists; both showed a high regard for the legal process, and both avoided high-risk actions. Both got along well with the military, the diplomatic corps, and the intelligence services. Both had scandal-free administrations. Both failed to strengthen their party's hold on Congress.

It is telling that aside from Hawaii and the District of Columbia that Obama did not win any state that Eisenhower did not win twice. Ike has an excuse on not winning Hawaii or the District of Columbia in that neither was voting in the 1950's. 

If anyone has any doubt that the Presidential Election of 1976 is ancient history for all practical purposes:

Carter 1976, Obama 2012    



Carter 1976, Obama twice  red
Carter 1976, Obama once pink
Carter 1976, Obama never yellow
Ford 1976, Obama twice white
Ford 1976, Obama once light blue
Ford 1976, Obama never blue

White (all in the North and West, except for Virginia) and yellow (all in the South, if one means the Mountain South, the Deep South, and Texas) indicate Party shifts from R to D or D to R, respectively. Jimmy Carter is the last Democratic nominee for President to win Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina, and that will likely stick.

I'm not predicting how 2020 will go except to say that I expect Biden to have a win something like that of Obama in 2008 (OK, exchange Indiana for Arizona) and one of Ike's wins. Biden will definitely not win like Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton according to the map. He is more likely to lose like Hillary Clinton on the map than win either of these.     
 
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« Reply #13 on: September 18, 2020, 03:02:26 AM »

That's actually a really interesting work pbrower2a, and definitely worthy a read...

I guess the part I'm missing here is:

The connection to Asian-American voting and this poll in the 2020 GE-PRES Election...



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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2020, 01:58:17 PM »

I would imagine that most of the undecideds will end up voting for Biden. According to AALDEF (which is more reliable than mainstream exit polls because they conduct interviews in various Asian languages), Hillary got 79% of the Asian vote.

Also, according to AALDEF, Asian voters overwhelmingly voted for Democratic candidates in the 2018 midterms (in the 75-81% range). Joe Biden will receive about the same level of support.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Poll results:
Indian: 66-28-0-6
Chinese: 56-20-2-22
Filipino: 52-34-2-12
Japanese: 62-24-0-14
Korean: 58-26-0-16
Vietnamese: 36-48-0-16
ALL: 54-30-2-14

My estimate- based on gut feeling, the (non-AALDEF) 2016 exit polls, and AAPIData's undecided percentages:
Indian: Biden 65-75, Trump 25-30
Chinese: Biden 64-72, Trump 25-35
Filipino: Biden 60-75, Trump 20-35
Japanese: Biden 68-76, Trump 20-28
Korean: Biden 66-76, Trump 24-30
Vietnamese: Biden 45-55, Trump 43-53
ALL: Biden 65-75, Trump 24-30

I think an AADLEF-type poll that does a good job reaching urban Asian immigrants and their children will show similar results to the more Biden-favorable end of my estimates.

https://gothamist.com/news/asian-voters-nyc-chose-biden-overwhelmingly-election-day-exit-polling-shows?

Quote
A snapshot of Asian voters in New York City on Election Day shows an overwhelming preference for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden as well as high rates of first-time voters coming to the polls Tuesday, according to preliminary exit poll data from the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund.

As part of a national exit poll project that AALDEF has conducted on Election Day since 1988, the advocacy non-profit sent surveyors to 18 polling sites in Brooklyn, Manhattan and Queens to speak to in-person voters.

In Queens, voters surveyed expressed a slightly higher preference for President Donald Trump, with 31% of voters choosing the incumbent compared to 66% for Biden. In Brooklyn, the gap was highest for Biden, with 80% of votes for him compared to 18% for Trump. In Manhattan, 72% said they voted for Biden with 25% choosing Trump.

Is this a good or bad performance among NYC AAPIs? Wiki says around half of them (maybe more) live in Queens, and that Queens AAPIs are disproportionately Indian, Bangladeshi, Korean, and Filipino compared to the city. I've never been there but I know that's where Flushing (Chinese enclaves) is.
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2020, 06:35:55 PM »

Kind of crazy how Trump did better with non-white voters than any Republican nominee since 1960 and still lost!
Shocking, really.  Trump of all people.  Very probably the most racist president in modern times.

People have talked about this and beaten it to death and hurled plenty of insults at those who explain why and give reasons that are not always 100% positive or don't seem rational (without actually refuting any points made), and the fact that this happens explains exactly why this is so hard for people to grasp. Many people just don't understand other communities or cultures, and have to see that understanding other communities and cultures is knowing the good and the bad, and understanding that seemingly irrational behavior to one person is completely normal to another. There are people I know from Mexico and Taiwan who say that there are some things they just don't understand about America/Americans because they make absolutely no sense, and when I reflect on these things, I definitely think they have a point.

In the end, people of color supporting someone as racist as Trump in larger numbers than before makes about as much sense as rural working class white voters supporting someone as far removed from the working class in rural areas as Trump. It seems irrational, and you can definitely argue that it is to an extent (or criticize the logic behind the decision), but it does pay to understand why people see things differently.

Please, educate us. NOT sarcastic here.
-snip-

I'm no expert on the black community, so I would defer to someone else on that, and I can't speak for most Asians, but Taiwanese Americans were likely happy to see Trump's rhetoric on China, as well as how he recognized Taiwan on many occasions and even congratulated the Taiwanese President when she got re-elected. Of course, Trump doesn't care at all about Taiwan and just does it to give a middle finger to China, but that might not matter to Taiwanese Americans, since that doesn't undo his actions, and many do (understandably) have a very negative opinion of Mainland China.

Anyway, I understand that this should probably move to another thread, but I wanted to address it.

I’m surprised you think Taiwanese Americans favor Trump over Biden, because from my experience they’re more partisan Democrats than other ethnic Chinese and other AAPI subgroups. Granted, my interactions with Taiwanese Americans are mostly with 1.5 gens and native-borns under 30, but there are also a ton of Taiwanese American figures within the Democratic party. They’re just demographically a very good fit for the progressive Democrat establishment in terms of educational attainment, geographic distribution, relative high religiosity, and acculturation into PMC liberal circles. Certainly a better fit than Mainland Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, and Filipino American counterparts.

I don’t feel like Taiwanese immigrants who came here as adults would be significantly more R than their PRC counterparts (who in my experience aren’t exactly aligned with progressives.) I do have anecdotal accounts of right-leaning or conservative-minded Taiwanese Americans, but on the whole they seem like relatively strong Bernie/Hillary/Yang/Biden supporters.
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« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2020, 07:05:12 PM »

I would imagine that most of the undecideds will end up voting for Biden. According to AALDEF (which is more reliable than mainstream exit polls because they conduct interviews in various Asian languages), Hillary got 79% of the Asian vote.

Also, according to AALDEF, Asian voters overwhelmingly voted for Democratic candidates in the 2018 midterms (in the 75-81% range). Joe Biden will receive about the same level of support.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Poll results:
Indian: 66-28-0-6
Chinese: 56-20-2-22
Filipino: 52-34-2-12
Japanese: 62-24-0-14
Korean: 58-26-0-16
Vietnamese: 36-48-0-16
ALL: 54-30-2-14

My estimate- based on gut feeling, the (non-AALDEF) 2016 exit polls, and AAPIData's undecided percentages:
Indian: Biden 65-75, Trump 25-30
Chinese: Biden 64-72, Trump 25-35
Filipino: Biden 60-75, Trump 20-35
Japanese: Biden 68-76, Trump 20-28
Korean: Biden 66-76, Trump 24-30
Vietnamese: Biden 45-55, Trump 43-53
ALL: Biden 65-75, Trump 24-30

I think an AADLEF-type poll that does a good job reaching urban Asian immigrants and their children will show similar results to the more Biden-favorable end of my estimates.

https://gothamist.com/news/asian-voters-nyc-chose-biden-overwhelmingly-election-day-exit-polling-shows?

Quote
A snapshot of Asian voters in New York City on Election Day shows an overwhelming preference for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden as well as high rates of first-time voters coming to the polls Tuesday, according to preliminary exit poll data from the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund.

As part of a national exit poll project that AALDEF has conducted on Election Day since 1988, the advocacy non-profit sent surveyors to 18 polling sites in Brooklyn, Manhattan and Queens to speak to in-person voters.

In Queens, voters surveyed expressed a slightly higher preference for President Donald Trump, with 31% of voters choosing the incumbent compared to 66% for Biden. In Brooklyn, the gap was highest for Biden, with 80% of votes for him compared to 18% for Trump. In Manhattan, 72% said they voted for Biden with 25% choosing Trump.

Is this a good or bad performance among NYC AAPIs? Wiki says around half of them (maybe more) live in Queens, and that Queens AAPIs are disproportionately Indian, Bangladeshi, Korean, and Filipino compared to the city. I've never been there but I know that's where Flushing (Chinese enclaves) is.

I used to live in Queens yet I can't confidently make any assessment. But from the raw look, that number doesn't seem good.

I am Korean with a Filipina wife and would be shocked if Trump didn't make gains with Koreans and Filipinos. I don't know about Bangladeshi but at least based on polls, Indians seem to have warmed toward Trump as well.
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« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2020, 07:34:05 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2020, 07:37:44 PM by Ogre Mage »

The exit polls suggest Indian Americans are Biden's strongest Asian ethnic group.  How much of this do people think can be attributed to Vice President-elect Harris?
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« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2020, 08:46:43 PM »

The exit polls suggest Indian Americans are Biden's strongest Asian ethnic group.  How much of this do people think can be attributed to Vice President-elect Harris?


Pakistani and Bangladeshi Americans have historically been even more D than Indian Americans due to being both brown and Muslim. (Indian Americans are religiously diverse but majority Hindu.) Not sure if that changed this year, but I highly doubt they would've been swayed by Trump's good relations with Indian PM Narendra Modi.
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« Reply #19 on: November 08, 2020, 11:20:13 PM »

The exit polls suggest Indian Americans are Biden's strongest Asian ethnic group.  How much of this do people think can be attributed to Vice President-elect Harris?


Just realized I didn't actually answer your question. South Asians have historically voted D by larger margins than East and Southeast Asians. They have a separate group/cultural identity from East and Southeast Asians, are more highly educated on average, and are far more likely to adhere to non-Christian faiths. I get the feeling that Indian Americans have a stronger tendency to vote as a bloc than other AAPI groups, although that may change if they continue swinging R, as AAPI Data has suggested.
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« Reply #20 on: November 11, 2020, 02:26:33 PM »

Maybe we should ban Wechat...
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« Reply #21 on: November 16, 2020, 02:24:20 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2020, 02:29:38 PM by khuzifenq »

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/aaldef-exit-poll-asian-americans-favor-biden-over-trump-68-to-29-played-role-in-close-races-in-georgia-and-other-battleground-states/

Quote
[November 13, 2020] The Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund (AALDEF) today released new data from its exit poll of 5,424 Asian American voters in 13 states and Washington, DC, noting the importance of the Asian American vote in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada.

Jerry Vattamala, AALDEF Democracy Program Director, said “Despite the challenges of the pandemic, we dispatched more than 400 volunteers to polling places, interacting with voters in English and nine Asian languages through paper surveys or by providing voters with QR codes to complete the surveys online.”

Among all Asian American voters polled:

Asian Americans favored Joe Biden over Donald Trump by a margin of 68% to 29%.
* There was no gender gap between Asian American men and women, with 67% of women and 66% of men voting for Biden and both groups supporting Trump at 31%.
* The only ethnic group to favor Trump were Vietnamese American voters, by a margin of 57% to 41%.
The breakdown of voters by ethnicity was as follows:



[most D] Bangladeshi > Pakistani > Indo-Caribbean > Arab > Multi-Asian >> Indian >> Other Asian > Chinese > Filipino > Korean > Cambodian >> Vietnamese [most R]

Sigh, I figured there'd be at least one exit poll showing Trump won the Vietnamese vote. I wonder where the discrepancy between this and the AAPI Fund Election Eve poll showing Biden won Vietnamese Americans by over 20 points is coming from.

It looks like the Indian, Korean, Vietnamese, and maybe Filipino + Chinese votes all swung significantly toward Trump.  The Chinese results from this poll are roughly the same as what 2016 NAAS exit polls showed.


Quote
First-Time Voters, Political Party, Nativity, English Language Proficiency, and Gender

• 27% were first-time voters; 73% were not first-time voters.

• 54% were registered Democrats; 16% were registered Republicans; 27% were not enrolled in a party; and 3% were enrolled in another party.

• 27% were native-born U.S. citizens; 73% were foreign-born naturalized citizens.

• 7% were limited English proficient (LEP); and 63% spoke English well.

• 52.9% were Female; 46.7% were Male; 0.4% Non-Binary.

Those limited English proficiency numbers (52-46) are terrible for Biden lmao. Surprisingly, the first-time vote was slightly more favorable for Trump (30%) than the non-first-time vote (29%).


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« Reply #22 on: November 16, 2020, 02:25:04 PM »

Battleground state updates as of 11/16

Pennsylvania: 63-36 Biden. Trump did quite well with Cambodian (50-46 Trump) and Vietnamese (73-27 Trump) voters, and better than you'd think among independents (40-56) and registered third-party members (39-54).

Georgia: 62-38 Biden. Biden won every Asian group except Koreans (60-39 Trump). Independents were 63-30 Biden, registered third-party voters were 60-20 Biden.

Michigan: 85-13 Biden, 85-9 Peters. Every Asian group favored Biden, significant crossover from registered Republicans (64-21 Trump). Independents were 63-33 Biden, registered third-party voters were 67-33 Biden.

Nevada: 57-40 Biden. Independents were very Trumpy (46-46).
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« Reply #23 on: November 16, 2020, 03:28:57 PM »

That AALDEF exit poll has Biden winning 100% of the Pakistani and Arab vote in Michigan. I know that Biden won the overwhelming majority of the vote among Pakistani-Americans and Arab-Americans but there's now way that Biden got 100% lol. I can understand 90% but not 100%.

I think that there might either be a sampling error or they entered the numbers wrong lol. Regardless, it does go to show that exit polls (especially this year) are not the best way to measure support for certain candidates and they should be taken with a grain of salt.
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« Reply #24 on: November 16, 2020, 11:38:21 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2020, 11:51:48 PM by Asta »

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/aaldef-exit-poll-asian-americans-favor-biden-over-trump-68-to-29-played-role-in-close-races-in-georgia-and-other-battleground-states/

Quote
[November 13, 2020] The Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund (AALDEF) today released new data from its exit poll of 5,424 Asian American voters in 13 states and Washington, DC, noting the importance of the Asian American vote in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada.

Jerry Vattamala, AALDEF Democracy Program Director, said “Despite the challenges of the pandemic, we dispatched more than 400 volunteers to polling places, interacting with voters in English and nine Asian languages through paper surveys or by providing voters with QR codes to complete the surveys online.”

Among all Asian American voters polled:

Asian Americans favored Joe Biden over Donald Trump by a margin of 68% to 29%.
* There was no gender gap between Asian American men and women, with 67% of women and 66% of men voting for Biden and both groups supporting Trump at 31%.
* The only ethnic group to favor Trump were Vietnamese American voters, by a margin of 57% to 41%.
The breakdown of voters by ethnicity was as follows:



[most D] Bangladeshi > Pakistani > Indo-Caribbean > Arab > Multi-Asian >> Indian >> Other Asian > Chinese > Filipino > Korean > Cambodian >> Vietnamese [most R]

Sigh, I figured there'd be at least one exit poll showing Trump won the Vietnamese vote. I wonder where the discrepancy between this and the AAPI Fund Election Eve poll showing Biden won Vietnamese Americans by over 20 points is coming from.

It looks like the Indian, Korean, Vietnamese, and maybe Filipino + Chinese votes all swung significantly toward Trump.  The Chinese results from this poll are roughly the same as what 2016 NAAS exit polls showed.


Quote
First-Time Voters, Political Party, Nativity, English Language Proficiency, and Gender

• 27% were first-time voters; 73% were not first-time voters.

• 54% were registered Democrats; 16% were registered Republicans; 27% were not enrolled in a party; and 3% were enrolled in another party.

• 27% were native-born U.S. citizens; 73% were foreign-born naturalized citizens.

• 7% were limited English proficient (LEP); and 63% spoke English well.

• 52.9% were Female; 46.7% were Male; 0.4% Non-Binary.

Those limited English proficiency numbers (52-46) are terrible for Biden lmao. Surprisingly, the first-time vote was slightly more favorable for Trump (30%) than the non-first-time vote (29%).




Several comments about this:

I can confirm 57-41 sounds about right for Koreans, being one myself. He's clearly done better among Koreans this year. Trump garnered record share of evangelical Christian votes in 2016. And while I speculated he would slip away a bit with white evangelicals, I always knew he has hasn't hit his ceiling with Korean voters, given that overwhelming % of Korean Americans are evangelical Christians.

Another thing I can confirm is that I have talked to some foreign Chinese students and they speak positively of Trump compared to Chinese Americans.

Filipino Americans going for Trump seems to be an Americanized effect. Most native Filipinos I know are supportive of Trump.

Foreign born and native born may have some confounding variables like age. Older generation are less likely to speak proficient English. My parents voted for Trump. My sister and I voted for Biden. I wonder how much of this is due to age, and not so much due to cultural assimilation.

I would like to see the numbers for Japanese if they were polled at all. My best guess is that Japanese swung toward Trump roughly the same margin as Hawaii did.
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