AAPIData: Biden +24 among Asian voters (n = 1527, 14% Undecided)
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May 07, 2021, 06:28:51 PM

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  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  AAPIData: Biden +24 among Asian voters (n = 1527, 14% Undecided)
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Author Topic: AAPIData: Biden +24 among Asian voters (n = 1527, 14% Undecided)  (Read 1503 times)
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #25 on: November 17, 2020, 12:26:26 AM »
« edited: November 17, 2020, 12:53:27 AM by khuzifenq »

That AALDEF exit poll has Biden winning 100% of the Pakistani and Arab vote in Michigan. I know that Biden won the overwhelming majority of the vote among Pakistani-Americans and Arab-Americans but there's now way that Biden got 100% lol. I can understand 90% but not 100%.

I think that there might either be a sampling error or they entered the numbers wrong lol. Regardless, it does go to show that exit polls (especially this year) are not the best way to measure support for certain candidates and they should be taken with a grain of salt.

Yeah the AALDEF exit poll probably isn't representative of all Asian American voters, since they said they only focused on 13 states + DC. This is useful for gauging relative support for the candidates in swing states though.

http://aapidata.com/blog/exit-polls-caution/

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khuzifenq
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« Reply #26 on: November 17, 2020, 12:53:02 AM »

Several comments about this:

I can confirm 57-41 sounds about right for Koreans, being one myself. He's clearly done better among Koreans this year. Trump garnered record share of evangelical Christian votes in 2016. And while I speculated he would slip away a bit with white evangelicals, I always knew he has hasn't hit his ceiling with Korean voters, given that overwhelming % of Korean Americans are evangelical Christians.

Another thing I can confirm is that I have talked to some foreign Chinese students and they speak positively of Trump compared to Chinese Americans.

Filipino Americans going for Trump seems to be an Americanized effect. Most native Filipinos I know are supportive of Trump.

Foreign born and native born may have some confounding variables like age. Older generation are less likely to speak proficient English. My parents voted for Trump. My sister and I voted for Biden. I wonder how much of this is due to age, and not so much due to cultural assimilation.

I would like to see the numbers for Japanese if they were polled at all. My best guess is that Japanese swung toward Trump roughly the same margin as Hawaii did.

1) I always felt like Republicans have a higher floor with Korean Americans than Chinese Americans. Koreans are more religious (specifically more evangelical Protestant), slightly more downscale, and possibly more likely to be small business owners as well. These factors make them a better demographic fit for the Bush-Trump era GOP.

2) I suspect PRC-origin international students are (relatively) supportive of Trump for different reasons than their Taiwanese or Hong Konger counterparts, including class selection. But there's definitely some tacit acceptance of political authoritarianism/majoritarianism and just-world fallacy involved here that I think is specific to ethnic Chinese who were raised in Asia.

3) No comment on Filipino American voters, other than I don't think Americanization is necessarily correlated with Biden support. As far as 1.5+ gens go, I think the bigger factors are educational attainment, religiosity, and maybe gender.

4) Yeah with Asians, age cohort and immigrant generation trump everything else. Younger and more recent immigrants seem much more liberal/left-leaning across the board compared to my parents' generation or yours, although my personal social network probably isn't representative.

5) Agreed. I think most Japanese Americans are in HI and CA. They're much more assimilated than every other Asian group.
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Asta
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« Reply #27 on: November 17, 2020, 12:29:01 PM »

Several comments about this:

I can confirm 57-41 sounds about right for Koreans, being one myself. He's clearly done better among Koreans this year. Trump garnered record share of evangelical Christian votes in 2016. And while I speculated he would slip away a bit with white evangelicals, I always knew he has hasn't hit his ceiling with Korean voters, given that overwhelming % of Korean Americans are evangelical Christians.

Another thing I can confirm is that I have talked to some foreign Chinese students and they speak positively of Trump compared to Chinese Americans.

Filipino Americans going for Trump seems to be an Americanized effect. Most native Filipinos I know are supportive of Trump.

Foreign born and native born may have some confounding variables like age. Older generation are less likely to speak proficient English. My parents voted for Trump. My sister and I voted for Biden. I wonder how much of this is due to age, and not so much due to cultural assimilation.

I would like to see the numbers for Japanese if they were polled at all. My best guess is that Japanese swung toward Trump roughly the same margin as Hawaii did.

1) I always felt like Republicans have a higher floor with Korean Americans than Chinese Americans. Koreans are more religious (specifically more evangelical Protestant), slightly more downscale, and possibly more likely to be small business owners as well. These factors make them a better demographic fit for the Bush-Trump era GOP.

2) I suspect PRC-origin international students are (relatively) supportive of Trump for different reasons than their Taiwanese or Hong Konger counterparts, including class selection. But there's definitely some tacit acceptance of political authoritarianism/majoritarianism and just-world fallacy involved here that I think is specific to ethnic Chinese who were raised in Asia.

3) No comment on Filipino American voters, other than I don't think Americanization is necessarily correlated with Biden support. As far as 1.5+ gens go, I think the bigger factors are educational attainment, religiosity, and maybe gender.

4) Yeah with Asians, age cohort and immigrant generation trump everything else. Younger and more recent immigrants seem much more liberal/left-leaning across the board compared to my parents' generation or yours, although my personal social network probably isn't representative.

5) Agreed. I think most Japanese Americans are in HI and CA. They're much more assimilated than every other Asian group.

I recall seeing that younger foreign Chinese are more supportive of Trump than the older ones. I can't find that source anymore, but assuming it's true, do you think younger Chinese have more affinity for stronger leaders? I don't think Chinese preferring Trump over Biden or Clinton is just a matter of seeking self-interest for China. I highly doubt younger people are more likely to believe in national interest than older ones.

At first thought, I theorize maybe they like his personality but there seems to be a similar phenomena in Russia where Putin earns higher support from the youth than from the older ones. I doubt that young Russians like Putin for his personality.
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Asta
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« Reply #28 on: November 17, 2020, 02:10:35 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2020, 02:15:35 PM by Asta »

Btw, the election eve poll you cited seems to understate Trump's support from the exit poll (bolded).

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

The election eve poll missed Vietnamese' Trump support by whopping 41 points; For Koreans, 33 points; Chinese 11 points. The former two are horrible misses if exit poll is to be believed.

1) Which one is more accurate, the exit poll or election eve poll? I know exit poll is less reliable this year but at the same time, they have bigger sample size.

2) Do you have any theory on why there was such a huge error? Sample size of the election eve poll may be partly to blame here but in Indians and Filipinos case, the margins were actually quite accurate.


Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45) 65-31 (Biden +34)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22) 60-38 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)  72-26 (Biden +46)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41) unknown
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48) (57-42 (Biden +15)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25) 41-57 (Trump +16)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #29 on: November 17, 2020, 02:25:46 PM »

Btw, the election eve poll you cited seems to understate Trump's support from the exit poll (bolded).

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

The election eve poll missed Vietnamese' Trump support by whopping 41 points; For Koreans, 33 points; Chinese 11 points. The former two are horrible misses if exit poll is to be believed.

1) Which one is more accurate, the exit poll or election eve poll? I know exit poll is less reliable this year but at the same time, they have bigger sample size.

2) Do you have any theory on why there was such a huge error? Sample size of the election eve poll may be partly to blame here but in Indians and Filipinos case, the margins were actually quite accurate.


Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45) 65-31 (Biden +34)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22) 60-38 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)  72-26 (Biden +46)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41) unknown
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48) (57-42 (Biden +15)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25) 41-57 (Trump +16)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)

To be honest, I don't entirely trust either poll. I don't think the AALDEF poll is representative of all Asians because they only focused on 13 states + DC. And I'm not sure if the Election Eve poll accounted for Election Day voters. I don't remember if either poll weighed the relative proportions of different Asian subgroups according to CVAP. The AAPI Data Sept 2020 survey definitely did not.

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Asta
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« Reply #30 on: November 17, 2020, 02:43:54 PM »

Btw, the election eve poll you cited seems to understate Trump's support from the exit poll (bolded).

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

The election eve poll missed Vietnamese' Trump support by whopping 41 points; For Koreans, 33 points; Chinese 11 points. The former two are horrible misses if exit poll is to be believed.

1) Which one is more accurate, the exit poll or election eve poll? I know exit poll is less reliable this year but at the same time, they have bigger sample size.

2) Do you have any theory on why there was such a huge error? Sample size of the election eve poll may be partly to blame here but in Indians and Filipinos case, the margins were actually quite accurate.


Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45) 65-31 (Biden +34)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22) 60-38 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)  72-26 (Biden +46)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41) unknown
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48) (57-42 (Biden +15)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25) 41-57 (Trump +16)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)

To be honest, I don't entirely trust either poll. I don't think the AALDEF poll is representative of all Asians because they only focused on 13 states + DC. And I'm not sure if the Election Eve poll accounted for Election Day voters. I don't remember if either poll weighed the relative proportions of different Asian subgroups according to CVAP. The AAPI Data Sept 2020 survey definitely did not.


13 states shouldn't distort the results too much, because there aren't a whole lot of Asians in unpopulated states. While I am tempted to say that the exit poll is probably far more accurate, exit poll could be disproportionately geared toward Asians that don't speak English proficiently in an attempt to represent more of older Asian voters.

There is a lot more work that needs to be done since Asian voters are disproportionately in bigger states like CA, NY, NJ, TX etc. Drawing roughly same number of voters from each state is going to give a more Trump-friendly result since NY and CA Asians are a lot more liberal than GA Asians.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #31 on: November 17, 2020, 02:55:30 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2020, 03:18:53 PM by khuzifenq »

Another thing I can confirm is that I have talked to some foreign Chinese students and they speak positively of Trump compared to Chinese Americans.
2) I suspect PRC-origin international students are (relatively) supportive of Trump for different reasons than their Taiwanese or Hong Konger counterparts, including class selection. But there's definitely some tacit acceptance of political authoritarianism/majoritarianism and just-world fallacy involved here that I think is specific to ethnic Chinese who were raised in Asia.

I recall seeing that younger foreign Chinese are more supportive of Trump than the older ones. I can't find that source anymore, but assuming it's true, do you think younger Chinese have more affinity for stronger leaders? I don't think Chinese preferring Trump over Biden or Clinton is just a matter of seeking self-interest for China. I highly doubt younger people are more likely to believe in national interest than older ones.

At first thought, I theorize maybe they like his personality but there seems to be a similar phenomena in Russia where Putin earns higher support from the youth than from the older ones. I doubt that young Russians like Putin for his personality.

Chinese nationals =/= Chinese international students =/= foreign-born registered voters. I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese international students (who are heavily filtered in terms of class and family income at the undergraduate level) are more supportive of Trump. But I've also heard Chinese international undergraduate students in the US were more supportive of Hillary than Chinese international graduate students who did their undergrad in China.

My comments about authoritarianism and just-world fallacy were more directed at naturalized immigrants to the US, whether from Mainland China, Taiwan, or Hong Kong. It'd be intellectually lazy to describe them using woke language buzzwords. But I don't think it's that much of a stretch to say that many older and working-class Chinese immigrants (whether they came as adults or older children) are "culturally conservative", pro-"law-and-order", and indifferent to self-expression values- to a more visible extent than other Asian subgroups IMO.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #32 on: November 17, 2020, 03:13:03 PM »

Btw, the election eve poll you cited seems to understate Trump's support from the exit poll (bolded).

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

The election eve poll missed Vietnamese' Trump support by whopping 41 points; For Koreans, 33 points; Chinese 11 points. The former two are horrible misses if exit poll is to be believed.

1) Which one is more accurate, the exit poll or election eve poll? I know exit poll is less reliable this year but at the same time, they have bigger sample size.

2) Do you have any theory on why there was such a huge error? Sample size of the election eve poll may be partly to blame here but in Indians and Filipinos case, the margins were actually quite accurate.


Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45) 65-31 (Biden +34)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22) 60-38 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)  72-26 (Biden +46)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41) unknown
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48) (57-42 (Biden +15)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25) 41-57 (Trump +16)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)

To be honest, I don't entirely trust either poll. I don't think the AALDEF poll is representative of all Asians because they only focused on 13 states + DC. And I'm not sure if the Election Eve poll accounted for Election Day voters. I don't remember if either poll weighed the relative proportions of different Asian subgroups according to CVAP. The AAPI Data Sept 2020 survey definitely did not.


13 states shouldn't distort the results too much, because there aren't a whole lot of Asians in unpopulated states. While I am tempted to say that the exit poll is probably far more accurate, exit poll could be disproportionately geared toward Asians that don't speak English proficiently in an attempt to represent more of older Asian voters.

There is a lot more work that needs to be done since Asian voters are disproportionately in bigger states like CA, NY, NJ, TX etc. Drawing roughly same number of voters from each state is going to give a more Trump-friendly result since NY and CA Asians are a lot more liberal than GA Asians.

I also suspect the actual vote was closer to the AALDEF exit poll than the AAPI fund Election Eve poll, but they only focused on the following states: DC | CA | FL | GA | LA | MA | MD | MI | NJ | NM | NV | NY | PA | TX | VA. They completely ignored WA, HI, NC, and IL- all of which have significant Asian populations.

Still, both polls came up with the same margin for Biden (68-29 from AALDEF, 68-30 from AAPI Fund)- both of which are consistent with AP's 70-28.
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« Reply #33 on: November 25, 2020, 11:16:54 PM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/25/us/georgia-asian-american-voters.html

Quote
Now there will be six Asian-Americans in the Statehouse, including Michelle Au, a Chinese-American doctor who was elected to the State Senate as a Democrat this month, the result of aggressive voter registration and turnout efforts. In this election, Mr. Woo put ads in Korean-language newspapers, started chats with dozens of voters on KakaoTalk, an app popular among Korean immigrants, and made announcements at his church.

Bee Nguyen, a Democrat who was elected to Georgia’s House District 89 in 2017, said she only realized just how ignored Asian voters had been in 2016 when she was canvassing for Sam Park, the first openly gay Korean-American to run for a State House seat.

“The pattern we saw when we were knocking on doors was that no one had ever talked to these people before,” said Ms. Nguyen, 39, who was born in Iowa to Vietnamese refugees.


I see the NY Times mentioned Viets4Biden.

Quote
The generational divide is particularly pronounced among Vietnamese-Americans. Many of the older generation came to the United States after the fall of Saigon, and a fear of communism runs deep.

“If you went to a Viets for Trump rally they spoke with broken English and if you went to a Viets for Biden rally they spoke broken Vietnamese,” said Ms. Ashling, 40, who came to Georgia in 1988 as a Vietnamese refugee.

This year has stood out, second-generation Vietnamese-Americans said in interviews, because of a flood of misinformation targeting older Vietnamese voters in the form of videos in Vietnamese that have cast Mr. Biden as a communist.

Ms. Ashling said she had found countering it nearly impossible.
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