Mexico -- who would you vote for

[Frodo]

Calderon -I do not want to have some anti-American populist right next door raising hell.  It is already bad enough that we have to contend with Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales, and perhaps Ollanta Humala, each striving to undermine our hegemony in the Americas.  The last thing I want to see is Obrador in the president's mansion just across the Rio Grande.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Calderon -I do not want to have some anti-American populist right next door raising hell.  It is already bad enough that we have to contend with Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales, and perhaps Ollanta Humala, each striving to undermine our hegemony in the Americas.  The last thing I want to see is Obrador in the president's mansion just across the Rio Grande.

How is Obrador anti-American? He looks a lot more like Bachalet, Lula or Kirchner than any of the guys mentioned.

And Castro has been completely irrelevant since the Cold War ended, Morales might cause problems for his neighbors but will have no effect on the US, Humala would only be a problem for Ecuador and Chile, and so far Chavez hasn't done anything toward the US besides bad mouthing.

BTW, hegemony is always bad, even if it's your country that has it.

[ag]

Calderon -I do not want to have some anti-American populist right next door raising hell.  It is already bad enough that we have to contend with Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales, and perhaps Ollanta Humala, each striving to undermine our hegemony in the Americas.  The last thing I want to see is Obrador in the president's mansion just across the Rio Grande.

How is Obrador anti-American? He looks a lot more like Bachalet, Lula or Kirchner than any of the guys mentioned.

There is a big differnce between those three, isn't there?

Lopez Obrador is unlikely to be Chavez, but he isn't a Batchelet either. He could be compared to Peru's Alan Garcia, or, indeed, Argentina's Nestor Kirchner (neither the Brasilian, nor Chilean leaders could be reasonably described as "populists" in the Latin American tradition - they are leftists, sociallists, you name it, but not populists).

Lopez Obrador originally comes from the left wing of the PRI - that what he is going to be, no more, no less. Nationalist, populist, distrusting and disdaining of the courts and the rest of the country's new democratic institutions, very likely fiscally irresponsible - but not radical and not particularly anti-American (by Mexican standards), except when he needs it for some reason.

The main problem w/ Lopez Obrador, though, is his personality. Frankly, I suspect he is maniacally paranoid, possibly clinically so.  He does seem to believe, that anything that ever happens is a personal plot against himself.  At least, he continuously says so in public. Giving major power to a mentally unstable man is what mostly scares me about the prospect of his election.

[??????????]

AG,

Is that the guy that wears the mask and refuses to show his face in public? If that's him I saw a rally he had on TV and their were a bunch of communist flags being used. I REALLY hope that guy doesn't win out.

[Cubby]

Whoever the most conservative party is. I guess since Jake voted "PAN" that would be it.

Sure. Though, except on the role of religion (strong Catholic), you'd find they are quite leftist for your taste.

As long as they aren't that New England liberal Catholic nonsense.

I've never seen Hee Haw, would I like it?

I'd vote for Obrador and the PRD, the best of the 3 parties.

[ag]

AG,

Is that the guy that wears the mask and refuses to show his face in public? If that's him I saw a rally he had on TV and their were a bunch of communist flags being used. I REALLY hope that guy doesn't win out.

No, of course not. That guy (Marcos) doesn't recognize elections at all. He is campaigning - against all parties taken together and electoral participation. He actually hates Lopez Obrador and the PRD (and makes sure the hatred is well-advertised) - many of Lopez Obrador's top aids have only recently defected from PRI; in the mid 1990s they were still PRI operatives, a lot of them specifically charged w/ doing away with Marcos's rebels.  There is a lot of personal bad blood there.

Lopez Obrador's face is well-known - he'd been the capital city's mayor until recently.

[??????????]

AG,

Is that the guy that wears the mask and refuses to show his face in public? If that's him I saw a rally he had on TV and their were a bunch of communist flags being used. I REALLY hope that guy doesn't win out.

No, of course not. That guy (Marcos) doesn't recognize elections at all. He is campaigning - against all parties taken together and electoral participation. He actually hates Lopez Obrador and the PRD (and makes sure the hatred is well-advertised) - many of Lopez Obrador's top aids have only recently defected from PRI; in the mid 1990s they were still PRI operatives, a lot of them specifically charged w/ doing away with Marcos's rebels.  There is a lot of personal bad blood there.

Lopez Obrador's face is well-known - he'd been the capital city's mayor until recently.

Ah, thanks for the info. So is Marcos considered a serious candidate, contender..whatever the hell he's supposed to be?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He's not running. He's the leader of a rebel insurgency in the southern region.

[ag]

AG,

Is that the guy that wears the mask and refuses to show his face in public? If that's him I saw a rally he had on TV and their were a bunch of communist flags being used. I REALLY hope that guy doesn't win out.

No, of course not. That guy (Marcos) doesn't recognize elections at all. He is campaigning - against all parties taken together and electoral participation. He actually hates Lopez Obrador and the PRD (and makes sure the hatred is well-advertised) - many of Lopez Obrador's top aids have only recently defected from PRI; in the mid 1990s they were still PRI operatives, a lot of them specifically charged w/ doing away with Marcos's rebels.  There is a lot of personal bad blood there.

Lopez Obrador's face is well-known - he'd been the capital city's mayor until recently.

Ah, thanks for the info. So is Marcos considered a serious candidate, contender..whatever the hell he's supposed to be?

He is not a candidate for anything - he  hates any legal form of government out there in existence. He campaigns for people to ignore the election - or, for that matter, any other aspect of the state.  Therefore, his only role in this election is to depress the turnout of voterst that would have otherwise gone for the PRD or, to a lesser extent, for PRI.

[??????????]

AG,

Is that the guy that wears the mask and refuses to show his face in public? If that's him I saw a rally he had on TV and their were a bunch of communist flags being used. I REALLY hope that guy doesn't win out.

No, of course not. That guy (Marcos) doesn't recognize elections at all. He is campaigning - against all parties taken together and electoral participation. He actually hates Lopez Obrador and the PRD (and makes sure the hatred is well-advertised) - many of Lopez Obrador's top aids have only recently defected from PRI; in the mid 1990s they were still PRI operatives, a lot of them specifically charged w/ doing away with Marcos's rebels.  There is a lot of personal bad blood there.

Lopez Obrador's face is well-known - he'd been the capital city's mayor until recently.

Ah, thanks for the info. So is Marcos considered a serious candidate, contender..whatever the hell he's supposed to be?

He is not a candidate for anything - he  hates any legal form of government out there in existence. He campaigns for people to ignore the election - or, for that matter, any other aspect of the state.  Therefore, his only role in this election is to depress the turnout of voterst that would have otherwise gone for the PRD or, to a lesser extent, for PRI.

Ah, kinda like a Mexican version of Bono. hahaha

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No, because he's a hardcore far leftist.

A note from your friendly neighbourhood despot: Watch it

[YoMartin]

PS Fox has vetoed the drugs bill. It appears, the administration was one of its sponsors, and he had said he'd sign it, but 7 hours later his office made a correction. The bill is "returned to Congress w/ observations".  Figure it out.

It was too good to be true, too liberal (in the original meaning of the word) to pass so easily in the middle of a presidential campaign. And I had found a way not to commit a crime before doing drugs: to have found them (you didn´t buy it, you didn´t make, anyone gave it to you. Finding something and taking it can´t be a crime).

Presidential campaign had nothing to do with it: this was entirely a non-issue. Much more controversial legislation was being passed at the end of the session several times a day - if anything, campaign serves to cover things up.

As for this bill, no candidate ever mentioned it, all parties were, mostly, in favor, the administration itself had proposed it. The only debate there were was, mostly, among the experts in the field. The objective was and remains not to have to arrest addicts, but concentrate on dealers - the same bill actually toughened the penalties for those. A version of the bill is still likely to get through, "with corrections". Despite denials, it was, mainly, the pressure from the North - it had 10 times as much to do with the US immigration debate as it had to do with all of the domestic politics taken together.

Ok, I see.

BTW, if Lopez Obrador is fiscally irresponsible, Kirchner is not a good match: his administration has constantly maintained large (and record) surplus, even in an electoral year like 2005. It´s funny how rethoric can be so powerful. Supposedly "orthodox" Carlos Menem worked with a tremendous deficit, while supposedly "populist" Kirchner is much more fiscally responsible.

AG,
Is that the guy that wears the mask and refuses to show his face in public? If that's him I saw a rally he had on TV and their were a bunch of communist flags being used. I REALLY hope that guy doesn't win out.

Haha, did you REALLY believed a guy not showing his face could be leading the polls?

[ag]

As I said, Obrador is likely going to be fiscally irresponsible - but we won't know till he is elected. As a mayor he was constrained by the fact that the city's borrowing limit is determined by the federal Congress (this is one of the residual constraints on the Federal District government, as compared to a regular state government - before 1997 the District government was entirely an unelected part of the Federal Government, and while the home rule has been granted, it remains limited), where his PRD had the smallest major faction and with which he had almost no clout. In part from the existing prior belief about his fiscal irreponsibility, the Congress was very reluctant to allow him to borrow, sharply cutting most of his requests.  He did manage to circumvent the constraints in various ways, but, at least, a lot of what he did is not directly counted as Federal District debt (suffices to say that the finances of his administration are not very transparent, even by the local standards).

Likewise, we should keep in mind that Kirchner hasn't really been able to borrow, without enormous cost - either financial or political.  In his case, the major constraint is the post-crisis suspicion of the lenders - I doubt Argentina could get acceptable interest rates without strong IMF backing, and getting that would be extremely costly politically.

To sum up, on occasion one can make a virtue of necessity (and, of course, a vice of an opportunity). 

[YoMartin]

Likewise, we should keep in mind that Kirchner hasn't really been able to borrow, without enormous cost - either financial or political.  In his case, the major constraint is the post-crisis suspicion of the lenders - I doubt Argentina could get acceptable interest rates without strong IMF backing, and getting that would be extremely costly politically.

To sum up, on occasion one can make a virtue of necessity (and, of course, a vice of an opportunity). 

True. But (a) if he can´t run a deficit it´s also true that he doesn´t need such a major surplus, especially considering 2005 was a crucial electoral year when he was battling to control his own party; and (b) even as governor in the 90´s, when both the federal and most provincial governments were running huge deficits, hw was quite conservative on fiscal matters. He CAN´T be a populist, but I think he WOULDN´T act like one anyway. All we know is that he ISN´T one; Menem´s actual policies were much more populist, if by that we mean fiscal irresponsability (as Bush is more populist than Clinton). If you want to add an "anti-americanism" variable, he´s not populist in that aspect either. He knows very well who he can fight with. His disagreement with the US on the FTAA issue is the same both Argentina and Brazil have with Europe: farm subsidies. And, on a more personal level, he seems to like the US. Before becoming president he had never been to Europe (the "mecca" of most latin american leftists) but he regularly visited New York. I´d prefer a more calm and moderate "style" on a president, but when you look at actual policies he´s not extreme at all.