VA-VCU: Warner +17
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 01:37:21 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls
  VA-VCU: Warner +17
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: VA-VCU: Warner +17  (Read 1596 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 15, 2020, 02:23:38 PM »

Aug 28-Sep 7, 693 LV, MoE: 6.2%

Warner (D-inc.) 55%
Gade (R) 38%

https://oppo.vcu.edu/media/oppo/September2020Release1final.pdf
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2020, 02:25:55 PM »

Safe Democratic, nothing to see here.

These numbers are also excellent news for Abigail Spanberger.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,615


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2020, 02:26:24 PM »

It's too bad he's not getting another warnering.
Logged
Canis
canis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,509


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -6.26

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2020, 02:32:57 PM »

Wow VA is gone for the Republicans this year completely out of reach
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2020, 02:50:23 PM »

Warner is such a daddy
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2020, 05:32:45 PM »

Don't know/refused 6%
Logged
Left Wing
FalterinArc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,512
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -8.26, S: -6.09


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2020, 05:34:29 PM »

Calling it now, Amherst County comes back to Warner
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2020, 05:42:08 PM »

Safe D, and Warner is leading by Kaine's 2018 margin, which is what I would expect.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2020, 02:00:00 AM »

Wow VA is gone for the Republicans this year completely out of reach

"this year"

You’re about 10 years late to the party.
Logged
crazy jimmie
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,513


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2020, 02:22:14 AM »

Wow VA is gone for the Republicans this year completely out of reach

"this year"

You’re about 10 years late to the party.

I am a little worried that Hogan will move to Virginia and run against Kaine in 2024 and be able to win.

And I am also worried that suburban Richmond or Virginia Beach GOP moderates will  be able to defeat Justin Fairfax if he is the 2021 gubernatorial nominee.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2020, 02:59:05 AM »

I am a little worried that Hogan will move to Virginia and run against Kaine in 2024 and be able to win.

There’s an outside shot of a Hogan win in MD-SEN in 2022 if (big if) he remains extremely popular (he’ll need his approval ratings to stay above 60% and maybe even 65%) and 2022 is a massive GOP wave because the Democratic trifecta completely overplayed its hand, but even then it would be an uphill battle. He would absolutely not win a Senate race in VA, however (he wouldn’t make it through the R primary + the carpetbagger ads would write themselves [I realize it’s VA, but still, it wouldn’t help] + VA/MD are very different states politically anyway).

Quote
And I am also worried that suburban Richmond or Virginia Beach GOP moderates will  be able to defeat Justin Fairfax if he is the 2021 gubernatorial nominee.

Those areas are arguably even less "elastic" than many parts of Northern Virginia, so no, not going to happen. I don’t expect Fairfax to win the Democratic nomination, but even if he somehow does, there’s no chance he loses statewide, even if the margin might be a little underwhelming (6-7 points or so). The path "just isn’t there" for Republicans in VA anymore, no matter how fiercely some insist that it is.

There seems to be this misconception that VA is a GA-type situation where it’s only one giant metropolitan area which has caused the Republican Party's collapse while the rest of the state has gotten more R or stayed as R as before but that’s not actually the case, especially when you look at the leftward shift in other urban areas (especially Hampton Roads and Richmond) since the Bush years — this is actually an underrated reason why Republicans have sometimes gotten close but not across the finish line during the Obama years.
Logged
GALeftist
sansymcsansface
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2020, 07:07:32 PM »

I feel like we're witnessing the making of a new NY with VA. Absent one big metropolitan area (NYC, NOVA) these states are pretty swingy and definitely achievable for the GOP, but those cities just make them too blue and not worth the resources. Plus, the DC burbs are only growing, and that's likely to accelerate if DC gets statehood in a Biden administration.

Anyways. Safe D.
Logged
ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
KYtrader
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 463


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2020, 08:18:03 PM »

I wonder how Ed Gillespie would be doing now if he won in 2014.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,589
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2020, 08:31:27 PM »

I wonder how Ed Gillespie would be doing now if he won in 2014.

Exactly the same as Gade
Logged
TheTide
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,597
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2020, 05:10:24 AM »

Solid numbers for the former future president.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2020, 05:21:42 AM »

Calling it now, Amherst County comes back to Warner

Lol, no
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,628
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2020, 03:56:33 PM »

New Poll: Virginia Senator by Virginia Commonwealth University on 2020-09-07

Summary: D: 55%, R: 38%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 04, 2020, 02:57:42 PM »

I wonder how Ed Gillespie would be doing now if he won in 2014.
He would be doing about the same as Cory Gardner. He would have a slim chance of winning re-election, but he would likely go down to his Democratic challenger.
Logged
Water Hazard
Rookie
**
Posts: 68


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 04, 2020, 06:02:39 PM »

Funny how between that race and AL 2017, the GOP could easily have 55 seats right now and yet have basically the same chance of holding the Senate this year.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,760
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2020, 09:12:33 PM »

Funny how between that race and AL 2017, the GOP could easily have 55 seats right now and yet have basically the same chance of holding the Senate this year.

Imagine if Scott Brown or Terri Lynn Land won.
Logged
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 04, 2020, 11:58:37 PM »

I wonder how Ed Gillespie would be doing now if he won in 2014.

Enron Ed.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.047 seconds with 14 queries.