Bush loses to a different democrat(92)

[Samof94]

What if Bush lost to a different Democrat without a sex scandal in 1992??? The name doesn’t matter, but Jerry Brown or Paul Tsongas seem like likely alternatives.

[Alben Barkley]

Really depends on a lot of factors. People forget that Clinton was not only the most charismatic candidate in that field, but also arguably the most liberal. If Jerry Brown won instead and he replaced all taxes (including Social Security) with a 13% flat tax like he was campaigning on, that would have ended in disaster. The economic boom and budget surplus would not have happened as they did under Clinton, who implemented modest tax hikes and spending cuts to bring about a surplus. He probably would have been a one-termer. If it was Tsongas, who shared Clinton’s more moderate economic policies (if not more fiscally conservative) and was particularly focused on the budget deficit, he might have been able to bring about a surplus too.

However, Tsongas died in January 1997 from non-Hodgkin lymphoma. So even if he was successful and popular in his first term, he either wouldn’t be able to run for re-election due to declining health or would die before being sworn in for a second term. That means his VP takes over. Imagine it was Clinton himself! Then we’re right back where we started, except maybe the Lewinsky affair is butterflied away, and now Clinton is eligible to run again in 2000, when he likely wins due to what would still presumably be a booming economy in addition to his own charisma and popularity. Now we have the question of if 9/11 still happens, if so how Clinton responds, etc.

In any case, it’s hard to imagine anybody more popular than Clinton was at the end even after the Lewinsky scandal; indeed his approval rating only continued to climb during and after the scandal and most Americans thought the impeachment was a joke. Gore lost not because Americans were outraged by the scandal, but because Gore mistakenly thought they were and did dumb things like make Joe Lieberman his running mate and refuse to let Clinton campaign for him as a result.

[StateBoiler]

Always thought a Tsongas presidency would've been interesting.

It's hard for me to imagine Clinton getting a VP nod in 1992. Whitewater was still a thing, and while the Paula Jones lawsuit doesn't happen until 1994, I have to imagine in-the-know politicos knew of Clinton's reputation, and why bring a potential Agnew type on as your veep? Wouldn't it make more sense to have someone solid you know won't overshadow you with any kind of scandal?

[Alben Barkley]

Always thought a Tsongas presidency would've been interesting.

It's hard for me to imagine Clinton getting a VP nod in 1992. Whitewater was still a thing, and while the Paula Jones lawsuit doesn't happen until 1994, I have to imagine in-the-know politicos knew of Clinton's reputation, and why bring a potential Agnew type on as your veep? Wouldn't it make more sense to have someone solid you know won't overshadow you with any kind of scandal?

I think it depends on how the primaries played out. If he just barely beat Clinton, might want to put him on the ticket to alleviate his supporters. Whitewater was still a minor story in 1992, with the Clintons not directly implicated, so it might not have been seen as a major risk. And he would have balanced the ticket pretty well.

[Agonized-Statism]

The most likely POD is the big names of the party deciding to throw their hat in the ring, which probably gives us President Mario Cuomo. If this candidate is anti-NAFTA, Perot might not run. I think Bill Clinton is an inevitability if only because of Hillary's ambition. He might run sometime in the 2000s or try for another position.

The 1990s are overall less smooth with an incomplete DLC Democrat takeover, but things end up more or less the same. A President Clinton is in office at some point after 2000.

President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dan Quayle (R-IN)
Governor Mario Cuomo (D-NY) / Senator Al Gore (D-TN) ✓

[Chips]

I'll post narrow Bush loss maps for each serious Democratic challenger.

Jerry Brown: 277 electoral votes
President Bush: 261 electoral votes

Paul Tsongas: 274 electoral votes
President Bush: 264 electoral votes

Tom Harkin: 272 electoral votes
President Bush: 266 electoral votes

Bob Kerrey: 273 electoral votes
President Bush: 265 electoral votes