Minnesota (Morning Consult): Biden +4

[wbrocks67]

Biden 48
Trump 44

It appears MC is a bit out of step with the other polls here, after we got like 3 +9 polls in a row.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/15/biden-holds-slim-edge-over-trump-in-minnesota-ahead-of-visits/

[wbrocks67]

This blurb is... interesting. I don't really see how Biden's lead really was so erratic that it went from +17 to +3 to +13 to +4 in a matter of months.

Biden led by 17 points in mid-May amid a surge of COVID-19 cases in the state before the gap closed to 3 points in the aftermath of protests following the Minneapolis police killing of George Floyd on May 25. July’s nationwide surge of coronavirus cases dovetailed with a 13-point lead for Biden before the race narrowed again amid the national nominating conventions and the GOP’s heightened focus on a law-and-order message.

[VAR]

Sep 4-13, 643 LV, MoE: 4.0%

[bilaps]

I beleive the race is tighter than most polls show, not only in MN but in general, but MC state polls are bad imo, not much logic in them.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Someone else 2%
Don't know/no opinion 6%

[DaleCooper]

Yeah, I don't believe for a second that Minnesota has been that erratic. There's no way that Biden support went from +17 to +3 then back to +13 and now back to +4. Even anywhere within the margin of error that seems absurd.

[Tender Branson]

Too close for comfort ...

But remember that MN was already close in 2000 and 2004 and then 2012 and 2016.

The only time it wasn't was in 2008.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This blurb is... interesting. I don't really see how Biden's lead really was so erratic that it went from +17 to +3 to +13 to +4 in a matter of months.

Biden led by 17 points in mid-May amid a surge of COVID-19 cases in the state before the gap closed to 3 points in the aftermath of protests following the Minneapolis police killing of George Floyd on May 25. July’s nationwide surge of coronavirus cases dovetailed with a 13-point lead for Biden before the race narrowed again amid the national nominating conventions and the GOP’s heightened focus on a law-and-order message.

The fact that their polling bounces around so wildly doesn't exactly inspire confidence for their methodology. 

[Dumbo]

Too close for comfort ...

But remember that MN was already close in 2000 and 2004 and then 2012 and 2016.

The only time it wasn't was in 2008.

2012 it was Obama + 7,7

[Virginiá]

#DemsInDisarray

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Climate change and oil drilling has definately made this race a close race, all the oil and gas states like TX, FL and NC seem to be flipping back to the Rs, based on oil drilling and disaster aid for the Hurricanses. While AZ, NV, CO, CA, OR are staying with the Dems due to Wildfires.

FL and NC have always flipped back R when Hurricane season begins, when it flirts with Dems

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

#DemsInDisarray

#Flippesota

[jamestroll]

Oh boy by the time I get back home tonight this thread will be at least 6 pages long.

[DaleCooper]

Oh boy by the time I get back home tonight this thread will be at least 6 pages long.

That depends on Monmouth's Florida poll this morning. If that's anywhere below Biden +3 then that'll surely be this week's news on Atlas.

[wbrocks67]

Oh boy by the time I get back home tonight this thread will be at least 6 pages long.

That depends on Monmouth's Florida poll this morning. If that's anywhere below Biden +3 then that'll surely be this week's news on Atlas.

Biden +3 would be amazing. I'm bracing myself for them to have a full on Trump lead at this point.

[neostassenite31]

Natural variation/fluctuations in polling. Next live-caller poll in MN should drop within the next week or so 

[Pollster]

Atlas obsessing over margins again. 44% is an incredibly good bet for where Trump will finish in this state.

[Eraserhead]

Not good but seems to be an outlier.