AZ, MN - YouGov/CBS: Kelly +7%, Smith +7%
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  AZ, MN - YouGov/CBS: Kelly +7%, Smith +7%
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Author Topic: AZ, MN - YouGov/CBS: Kelly +7%, Smith +7%  (Read 864 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 13, 2020, 09:52:11 AM »

September 9-11, 2020

AZ
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hr0WLAZhvP2k_BOL7sRwEifQgu2JAOTU/view

1106 likely voters
MoE among likely voters: 3.9%
Changes with July 7-10 poll

Kelly 49% (+3)
McSally 42% (n/c)
Someone else 3% (n/c)
Not sure 6% (-3)

Would not vote N/A (previously at 0%)

MN

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HgXF5rfA2yev5hD6mi4sCVgTmof3XPJ4/view

1087 likely voters
MoE among likely voters: 3.6%

Smith 47%
Lewis 40%
Someone else 2%
Not sure 10%
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2020, 10:28:21 AM »

Smith underperforming Biden + only left-leaning third parties on the ballot in the senate race (Grassroots, Legalize Marijuana Now) could make her lose, even if Biden wins the state.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2020, 10:53:42 AM »

AZ is Lean D at Prez and Senate Level
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Horus
Sheliak5
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2020, 11:03:46 AM »

Smith continues to underperform. Really a mistake in appointing her, just a weak candidate
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Pollster
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2020, 11:04:56 AM »

McSally continues to underperform. Really a mistake in appointing her, just a weak candidate

Fixed.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2020, 11:06:37 AM »

Doug Ducey's career is finished in AZ after the election
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VAR
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2020, 11:17:15 AM »

Smith underperforming Biden + only left-leaning third parties on the ballot in the senate race (Grassroots, Legalize Marijuana Now) could make her lose, even if Biden wins the state.

Do you actually believe what you’re saying?
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2020, 11:32:35 AM »

New Poll: Minnesota Senator by YouGov on 2020-09-11

Summary: D: 47%, R: 40%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2020, 11:33:38 AM »

New Poll: Arizona Senator (Special) by YouGov on 2020-09-11

Summary: D: 49%, R: 42%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Canis
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« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2020, 12:55:55 PM »

Reps have a pretty hard ceiling in MN which is why I have a really hard time seeing Smith or Biden losing this year in this national environment even when Keith Ellison was accused of domestic abuse in 2018 he still won by 3 and the rep barely broke 45% even when Tim Pawlenty was relatively popular and won reelection in 2006 he only got 47% I really dont see a path for Lewis the only way he could win is if enough people vote Third party which I doubt will happen that was pretty much the only reason Trump came close in MN is cause 10% of the electorate voted third party in 2018 all the reps got about 42-45% and the 45% came against a democrat accused of domestic abuse thats why I have MN as likely D but closer to Safe than Lean. The reps only path to victory is enough of the population voting third party in a year that looks absolutely terrible for third parties
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President Johnson
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« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2020, 01:51:14 PM »

Here is how Martha McSally can still win:
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2020, 10:41:25 PM »

Reps have a pretty hard ceiling in MN which is why I have a really hard time seeing Smith or Biden losing this year in this national environment even when Keith Ellison was accused of domestic abuse in 2018 he still won by 3 and the rep barely broke 45% even when Tim Pawlenty was relatively popular and won reelection in 2006 he only got 47% I really dont see a path for Lewis the only way he could win is if enough people vote Third party which I doubt will happen that was pretty much the only reason Trump came close in MN is cause 10% of the electorate voted third party in 2018 all the reps got about 42-45% and the 45% came against a democrat accused of domestic abuse thats why I have MN as likely D but closer to Safe than Lean. The reps only path to victory is enough of the population voting third party in a year that looks absolutely terrible for third parties

Ever heard of punctuation?
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Canis
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« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2020, 02:36:19 AM »
« Edited: September 14, 2020, 01:30:10 PM by Canis »

Reps have a pretty hard ceiling in MN which is why I have a really hard time seeing Smith or Biden losing this year in this national environment even when Keith Ellison was accused of domestic abuse in 2018 he still won by 3 and the rep barely broke 45% even when Tim Pawlenty was relatively popular and won reelection in 2006 he only got 47% I really dont see a path for Lewis the only way he could win is if enough people vote Third party which I doubt will happen that was pretty much the only reason Trump came close in MN is cause 10% of the electorate voted third party in 2018 all the reps got about 42-45% and the 45% came against a democrat accused of domestic abuse thats why I have MN as likely D but closer to Safe than Lean. The reps only path to victory is enough of the population voting third party in a year that looks absolutely terrible for third parties

Ever heard of punctuation?
Who cares I aint got time for that fool
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2020, 08:49:54 AM »

Smith continues to underperform. Really a mistake in appointing her, just a weak candidate

Amy Klobuchar aside, Minnesota tends to be very fixed in its voting habits, as has been remarked on here before. Rarely does a Democrat win the state with more than 53% of the vote, and rarely do they win by more than low double digits. Republicans have a high floor here, of around 43-46% of the vote, but are rarely able to get the last few points needed for victory. For example, Tim Pawlenty, Minnesota's last Republican Governor, only got 47% of the vote in 2006, beating his Democratic opponent Mike Hatch by less than a percentage point. And Pawlenty was a relatively popular incumbent at the time.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2020, 10:39:40 AM »

Reps have a pretty hard ceiling in MN which is why I have a really hard time seeing Smith or Biden losing this year in this national environment even when Keith Ellison was accused of domestic abuse in 2018 he still won by 3 and the rep barely broke 45% even when Tim Pawlenty was relatively popular and won reelection in 2006 he only got 47% I really dont see a path for Lewis the only way he could win is if enough people vote Third party which I doubt will happen that was pretty much the only reason Trump came close in MN is cause 10% of the electorate voted third party in 2018 all the reps got about 42-45% and the 45% came against a democrat accused of domestic abuse thats why I have MN as likely D but closer to Safe than Lean. The reps only path to victory is enough of the population voting third party in a year that looks absolutely terrible for third parties

Ever heard of punctuation?
Who cares I with got time for that fool

"I with got time for that"


Ever heard of speaking actual English?
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Kuumo
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« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2020, 11:03:32 AM »

Reps have a pretty hard ceiling in MN which is why I have a really hard time seeing Smith or Biden losing this year in this national environment even when Keith Ellison was accused of domestic abuse in 2018 he still won by 3 and the rep barely broke 45% even when Tim Pawlenty was relatively popular and won reelection in 2006 he only got 47% I really dont see a path for Lewis the only way he could win is if enough people vote Third party which I doubt will happen that was pretty much the only reason Trump came close in MN is cause 10% of the electorate voted third party in 2018 all the reps got about 42-45% and the 45% came against a democrat accused of domestic abuse thats why I have MN as likely D but closer to Safe than Lean. The reps only path to victory is enough of the population voting third party in a year that looks absolutely terrible for third parties

Ever heard of punctuation?
Who cares I with got time for that fool

"I with got time for that"


Ever heard of speaking actual English?

Step 1 to becoming olawakandi
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Canis
canis
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« Reply #16 on: September 14, 2020, 01:26:48 PM »

Reps have a pretty hard ceiling in MN which is why I have a really hard time seeing Smith or Biden losing this year in this national environment even when Keith Ellison was accused of domestic abuse in 2018 he still won by 3 and the rep barely broke 45% even when Tim Pawlenty was relatively popular and won reelection in 2006 he only got 47% I really dont see a path for Lewis the only way he could win is if enough people vote Third party which I doubt will happen that was pretty much the only reason Trump came close in MN is cause 10% of the electorate voted third party in 2018 all the reps got about 42-45% and the 45% came against a democrat accused of domestic abuse thats why I have MN as likely D but closer to Safe than Lean. The reps only path to victory is enough of the population voting third party in a year that looks absolutely terrible for third parties

Ever heard of punctuation?
Who cares I aint got time for that fool

"I with got time for that"


Ever heard of speaking actual English?

Step 1 to becoming olawakandi
lmfao I dont even remember responding to that last night sometimes i post on mobile haha can you try not being rude though? like seriously your life must suck to be going around posting about punctuation while ignoring the point of my post its really sad that you care that much lmfao
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2020, 01:41:49 PM »

Reps have a pretty hard ceiling in MN which is why I have a really hard time seeing Smith or Biden losing this year in this national environment even when Keith Ellison was accused of domestic abuse in 2018 he still won by 3 and the rep barely broke 45% even when Tim Pawlenty was relatively popular and won reelection in 2006 he only got 47% I really dont see a path for Lewis the only way he could win is if enough people vote Third party which I doubt will happen that was pretty much the only reason Trump came close in MN is cause 10% of the electorate voted third party in 2018 all the reps got about 42-45% and the 45% came against a democrat accused of domestic abuse thats why I have MN as likely D but closer to Safe than Lean. The reps only path to victory is enough of the population voting third party in a year that looks absolutely terrible for third parties

Ever heard of punctuation?
Who cares I aint got time for that fool

"I with got time for that"


Ever heard of speaking actual English?

Step 1 to becoming olawakandi
lmfao I dont even remember responding to that last night sometimes i post on mobile haha can you try not being rude though? like seriously your life must suck to be going around posting about punctuation while ignoring the point of my post its really sad that you care that much lmfao

1. Think you quoted the wrong person, pretty sure you meant to respond to me.
2. I'm not just nitpicking...it's just a real chore to read your post when it runs together like that.  It's actually disrespectful to the reader, if you can at all avoid it.  (If it's not just laziness and something you struggle with, that's another matter.)
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Canis
canis
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« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2020, 01:58:57 PM »

Reps have a pretty hard ceiling in MN which is why I have a really hard time seeing Smith or Biden losing this year in this national environment even when Keith Ellison was accused of domestic abuse in 2018 he still won by 3 and the rep barely broke 45% even when Tim Pawlenty was relatively popular and won reelection in 2006 he only got 47% I really dont see a path for Lewis the only way he could win is if enough people vote Third party which I doubt will happen that was pretty much the only reason Trump came close in MN is cause 10% of the electorate voted third party in 2018 all the reps got about 42-45% and the 45% came against a democrat accused of domestic abuse thats why I have MN as likely D but closer to Safe than Lean. The reps only path to victory is enough of the population voting third party in a year that looks absolutely terrible for third parties

Ever heard of punctuation?
Who cares I aint got time for that fool

"I with got time for that"


Ever heard of speaking actual English?

Step 1 to becoming olawakandi
lmfao I dont even remember responding to that last night sometimes i post on mobile haha can you try not being rude though? like seriously your life must suck to be going around posting about punctuation while ignoring the point of my post its really sad that you care that much lmfao

1. Think you quoted the wrong person, pretty sure you meant to respond to me.
2. I'm not just nitpicking...it's just a real chore to read your post when it runs together like that.  It's actually disrespectful to the reader, if you can at all avoid it.  (If it's not just laziness and something you struggle with, that's another matter.)
Nah I was responding to both of you cause he called me the cory booker poster and its not something I struggle with its just sometimes I post on mobile here and my screen is hella cracked so some keys are harder to acesss mainly the ones regarding punctuation I actually really care about punctuation when im working on my academic work or my political analysis for articles and campaigns I work on but on atlas I just tbh don't care enough to wait till im on my computer so I can post with better grammar and punctuation lol cause id typically forget what im gonna post about
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #19 on: September 14, 2020, 02:15:08 PM »

Reps have a pretty hard ceiling in MN which is why I have a really hard time seeing Smith or Biden losing this year in this national environment even when Keith Ellison was accused of domestic abuse in 2018 he still won by 3 and the rep barely broke 45% even when Tim Pawlenty was relatively popular and won reelection in 2006 he only got 47% I really dont see a path for Lewis the only way he could win is if enough people vote Third party which I doubt will happen that was pretty much the only reason Trump came close in MN is cause 10% of the electorate voted third party in 2018 all the reps got about 42-45% and the 45% came against a democrat accused of domestic abuse thats why I have MN as likely D but closer to Safe than Lean. The reps only path to victory is enough of the population voting third party in a year that looks absolutely terrible for third parties

Ever heard of punctuation?
Who cares I aint got time for that fool

"I with got time for that"


Ever heard of speaking actual English?

Step 1 to becoming olawakandi
lmfao I dont even remember responding to that last night sometimes i post on mobile haha can you try not being rude though? like seriously your life must suck to be going around posting about punctuation while ignoring the point of my post its really sad that you care that much lmfao

1. Think you quoted the wrong person, pretty sure you meant to respond to me.
2. I'm not just nitpicking...it's just a real chore to read your post when it runs together like that.  It's actually disrespectful to the reader, if you can at all avoid it.  (If it's not just laziness and something you struggle with, that's another matter.)
Nah I was responding to both of you cause he called me the cory booker poster and its not something I struggle with its just sometimes I post on mobile here and my screen is hella cracked so some keys are harder to acesss mainly the ones regarding punctuation I actually really care about punctuation when im working on my academic work or my political analysis for articles and campaigns I work on but on atlas I just tbh don't care enough to wait till im on my computer so I can post with better grammar and punctuation lol cause id typically forget what im gonna post about

K.
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Kuumo
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« Reply #20 on: September 14, 2020, 03:34:37 PM »

Reps have a pretty hard ceiling in MN which is why I have a really hard time seeing Smith or Biden losing this year in this national environment even when Keith Ellison was accused of domestic abuse in 2018 he still won by 3 and the rep barely broke 45% even when Tim Pawlenty was relatively popular and won reelection in 2006 he only got 47% I really dont see a path for Lewis the only way he could win is if enough people vote Third party which I doubt will happen that was pretty much the only reason Trump came close in MN is cause 10% of the electorate voted third party in 2018 all the reps got about 42-45% and the 45% came against a democrat accused of domestic abuse thats why I have MN as likely D but closer to Safe than Lean. The reps only path to victory is enough of the population voting third party in a year that looks absolutely terrible for third parties

Ever heard of punctuation?
Who cares I aint got time for that fool

"I with got time for that"


Ever heard of speaking actual English?

Step 1 to becoming olawakandi
lmfao I dont even remember responding to that last night sometimes i post on mobile haha can you try not being rude though? like seriously your life must suck to be going around posting about punctuation while ignoring the point of my post its really sad that you care that much lmfao

1. Think you quoted the wrong person, pretty sure you meant to respond to me.
2. I'm not just nitpicking...it's just a real chore to read your post when it runs together like that.  It's actually disrespectful to the reader, if you can at all avoid it.  (If it's not just laziness and something you struggle with, that's another matter.)
Nah I was responding to both of you cause he called me the cory booker poster and its not something I struggle with its just sometimes I post on mobile here and my screen is hella cracked so some keys are harder to acesss mainly the ones regarding punctuation I actually really care about punctuation when im working on my academic work or my political analysis for articles and campaigns I work on but on atlas I just tbh don't care enough to wait till im on my computer so I can post with better grammar and punctuation lol cause id typically forget what im gonna post about

Thanks for the explanation. I'll admit that wasn't my finest moment and that I agreed with the substance of your post when I looked at it again with fresh eyes.
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