NC: Survey USA - Tied at 47
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  NC: Survey USA - Tied at 47
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Author Topic: NC: Survey USA - Tied at 47  (Read 1377 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: September 14, 2020, 05:23:35 PM »

https://wwwcache.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2020/09/14/19286159/PollPrint-DMID1-5o6uj4sqc.pdf

Survey USA, Sep. 10-13, 596 LV

Biden 47
Trump 47

Cunningham 47, Tillis 40

Cooper 49, Forest 42
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Canis
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« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2020, 05:26:31 PM »

Good lol I got scared for second those numbers are terrible for Tillis
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2020, 05:28:01 PM »

Sounds reasonable. North Carolina has seemed like a tossup the entire cycle.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2020, 05:28:14 PM »

Would be nice for Biden to win this.  And the Cunningham lead is really good to see.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2020, 05:29:21 PM »

North Carolina might end up being the closest state in this election.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2020, 05:30:18 PM »

Conducted for WRAL TV
MoE: 5.6%
Changes with April 23-26 poll.

Biden 47% (-3)
Trump 47% (+2)
Someone else 5% (not previously listed)
Undecided 2% (-3)
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Horus
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« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2020, 05:32:12 PM »

Terrible Hispanic numbers for Biden, just +6
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Granite City
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« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2020, 05:36:15 PM »

Terrible Hispanic numbers for Biden, just +6

The sample size would be maybe 40 people, right? Don't think you need to overanalyse it.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2020, 05:37:01 PM »

NC is definately gonna be a bellwether
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2020, 05:52:43 PM »

Terrible Hispanic numbers for Biden, just +6

Weirdly, I think this was the only state where Biden carried the hispanic vote in the primaries while Sanders was in the race too iirc, other than Florida of course.

But again, we are talking a small sample size in the exit so who knows.
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kireev
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« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2020, 05:54:32 PM »

Holly cow. It's 46% Trump to 37% Clinton 2016 sample...
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2020, 05:56:09 PM »

Holly cow. It's 46% Trump to 37% Clinton 2016 sample...

Lmao, a Trump +9 2016 sample? Good grief.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2020, 05:59:11 PM »

Holly cow. It's 46% Trump to 37% Clinton 2016 sample...

Lmao, a Trump +9 2016 sample? Good grief.

Can't they weight for that? The Upshot/NYT polls had Trump-friendly samples but tried to account for that in the weighting.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2020, 06:12:42 PM »

Holly cow. It's 46% Trump to 37% Clinton 2016 sample...

Lmao, a Trump +9 2016 sample? Good grief.

Can't they weight for that? The Upshot/NYT polls had Trump-friendly samples but tried to account for that in the weighting.

They could, but didn't from what we can tell.
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kireev
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« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2020, 06:26:16 PM »

They also have Trump leading 66% to 30% among Asian/other. It's also 7% of the sample. The 14% of the sample, which is neither white nor black, is just horrible for Biden, but it has to be just a bad luck for him in the relatively small sample. Biden's numbers with whites age good though: Trump is leading by 23% down from +31% in 2016.

Terrible Hispanic numbers for Biden, just +6
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2020, 06:34:35 PM »

SUSA’s crosstabs are always nonsense.
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riceowl
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« Reply #16 on: September 14, 2020, 06:38:30 PM »

Can someone say how the polling was in NC this time 2016?
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republican1993
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« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2020, 07:56:26 PM »

NC being competitive is great for Trump - it's a must win.
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republican1993
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« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2020, 08:04:06 PM »

Can someone say how the polling was in NC this time 2016?

the polling had clinton +3
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #19 on: September 14, 2020, 08:04:19 PM »

NC being competitive is great for Trump - it's a must win.

Honestly, it shouldn't be so competitive for him.
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republican1993
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« Reply #20 on: September 14, 2020, 08:13:09 PM »

it shouldnt be but the polling has been like this in 2016 but more clinton favored polls.
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Cosmic Latte
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« Reply #21 on: September 14, 2020, 08:27:32 PM »

NC being competitive is great for Trump - it's a must win.

Eh, it's a must-win for Trump but Biden could easily win without it. Obviously it being competitive is better for Trump than Biden being ahead, but if Trump's having trouble winning NC, it's going to be tough to capture the more democratic-leaning states he'll need on top of NC to win.
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republican1993
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« Reply #22 on: September 14, 2020, 08:53:52 PM »

NC being competitive is great for Trump - it's a must win.

Eh, it's a must-win for Trump but Biden could easily win without it. Obviously it being competitive is better for Trump than Biden being ahead, but if Trump's having trouble winning NC, it's going to be tough to capture the more democratic-leaning states he'll need on top of NC to win.

EXACTLY - if trump holds NC + florida that is great with him, i hope for a tightening race to make the next 2 months exciting and fun
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #23 on: September 16, 2020, 08:35:13 AM »
« Edited: September 16, 2020, 08:38:18 AM by ElectionAtlas »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Survey USA on 2020-09-13

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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