NC-Trafalgar: Trump +2

[VAR]

Sep 9-11, 1046 LV, MoE: 3.0%

Trump 48%
Biden 46%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%
Blankenship 1%
Someone else 1%
Undecided 3%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PIe4nvZYQ2UZ5e30NenDolEgi1QlYl8_/view

[Bootes Void]

Considering this is Trafalgar, this isnt too good for Trump

[Buzz]

Lines up with other results.

[WD]

Yikes. Only up 2 in Trafalgar? Tossup/Tilt D.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

The unrounded margin is only Trump by 1.7, so this really isn't too great for Trump. Probably Biden +0/+1 given Trafalgar's leanings

[Horus]

Looks right.

[Woody]

Considering this is Trafalgar, this isnt too good for Trump

Son. Ever heard about this little thing called 2016?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Considering this is Trafalgar, this isnt too good for Trump

Though I'd now argue it's worth placing a little bit of stock in their polls (after learning that the 'social desirability weighting' isn't new to their methodology), it's still a trashy poll first, and a Republican-leaning poll second.

Iffy for Trump in so far as it means anything, but it doesn't mean much at all IMO.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Considering this is Trafalgar, this isnt too good for Trump

Son. Ever heard about this little thing called 2016?

No. "The polls were off in 2016" and the potential reasons for them being wide of the mark has never been discussed in this place, nor has that statement ever been accounted for in posters' analyses of the 2020 election.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Considering this is Trafalgar, this isnt too good for Trump

Though I'd now argue it's worth placing a little bit of stock in their polls (after learning that the 'social desirability weighting' isn't new to their methodology), it's still a trashy poll first, and a Republican-leaning poll second.

Iffy for Trump in so far as it means anything, but it doesn't mean much at all IMO.

Frankly their methodology seems to be to show every Republican doing five points better that every other pollster. If the Republican wins, they are heroes. If he loses, who cares.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

Considering this is Trafalgar, this isnt too good for Trump

Though I'd now argue it's worth placing a little bit of stock in their polls (after learning that the 'social desirability weighting' isn't new to their methodology), it's still a trashy poll first, and a Republican-leaning poll second.

Iffy for Trump in so far as it means anything, but it doesn't mean much at all IMO.

The social desirability weighting worked in 2016 because I genuinely think there was a shy trump voter in 2016.

But come on, its 2020. Very few, if any Trump voters are genuinely "shy" about expressing their support for him, and I'd be willing to bet there's a contingent of "shy" Biden voters which could offset those Trump voters

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Considering this is Trafalgar, this isnt too good for Trump

Son. Ever heard about this little thing called 2016?

Have you heard about 2018, D won the GCB by 8 pts and NC isn't a must win state but its one of the earliest VBM state and Early Voting states and Cooper is landsliding Forest and will have coattails for Biden and Cunningham

[neostassenite31]

and so Atlas's most beloved pollster returns

[Sirius_]

T(R)afalgar

Honestly just ban them from Atlas, they never provide anything of use. If Trump is actually up 2 in NC we'll see it in the real polls.

[Hammy]

Considering this is Trafalgar, this isnt too good for Trump

Son. Ever heard about this little thing called 2016?

They were not a consistently good pollster--they have 3-4 states they seem to have done well in.

North Carolina's overall demographics are more similar to Georgia than to Florida, and the former was one of their worst performances.

[Alben Barkley]

Nice! Biden +4 in NC.

[Buzz]

T(R)afalgar

Honestly just ban them from Atlas, they never provide anything of use. If Trump is actually up 2 in NC we'll see it in the real polls.

Trump has been up a point or two in several NC polls already.

[wbrocks67]

according to Trafalgar, Trump is winning every battleground except for PA

[swf541]

lmfao, this is the best the fake pollsters come up with?

[neostassenite31]

according to Trafalgar, Trump is winning every battleground except for PA

It's a virtually guarantee that they will come out with a poll in the next month or so showing him leading there

[Niemeyerite]

Considering this is Trafalgar, this isnt too good for Trump

Son. Ever heard about this little thing called 2016?

Son. Ever heard about these little things called 2012 and 2018?

[Gass3268]

This is a good point:

https://twitter.com/we_want_gore/status/1305673075778879490?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This is a good point:

https://twitter.com/we_want_gore/status/1305673075778879490?s=20

MoE exists, the polls weren't taken simultaneously and the pollster's trashy anyway (they do have previous releases showing Trump behind by 5 in MN, among other results), but these are all plausible tipping point states.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Considering this is Trafalgar, this isnt too good for Trump

Son. Ever heard about this little thing called 2016?

How can we not its literally in every single post you make.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Considering this is Trafalgar, this isnt too good for Trump

Son. Ever heard about this little thing called 2016?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/ckelly2528?fbclid=IwAR37o0qkSjqqxboMhj3FhfWSezcjlohKqZviF3ayhPshsUpPajvfEzW8EOo#!/vizhome/PollingAverages/MAIN?publish=yes I have a good link for you. Clinton was consistently averaging in the upper 30s and lower 40s in every battleground state. Biden is consistently averaging in the upper 40s and lower 50s in every battleground state. Undecideds are way lower as well. See the difference?