2022 LT. Gov Race Texas

[Samof94]

Given Dan Patrick being loathed by so many people, how competitive will his race by in 2022 since he barely beat a businessman from Houston in 2018.

[Indy Texas]

Even in an adverse Biden midterm, I could see this race being competitive.

Patrick was already on the rightward edge of the party in a state where the electorate is moving away from it. And he has plenty of enemies in the party.

His and Abbott's decisions to seek third terms for themselves are no doubt going to frustrate other state officeholders who want to move on and up in their careers.

George P. Bush is someone I could see primarying Patrick because he doesn't want to die of boredom from four more years running the General Land Office. He will call in all his favors from his family's friends, and he will argue that as a charismatic young biracial man he is the thing the GOP needs to appeal to changing demographics. Of course none of this will work and Patrick will go into the GE bruised and short of cash.

[Roll Roons]

Even in an adverse Biden midterm, I could see this race being competitive.

Patrick was already on the rightward edge of the party in a state where the electorate is moving away from it. And he has plenty of enemies in the party.

His and Abbott's decisions to seek third terms for themselves are no doubt going to frustrate other state officeholders who want to move on and up in their careers.

George P. Bush is someone I could see primarying Patrick because he doesn't want to die of boredom from four more years running the General Land Office. He will call in all his favors from his family's friends, and he will argue that as a charismatic young biracial man he is the thing the GOP needs to appeal to changing demographics. Of course none of this will work and Patrick will go into the GE bruised and short of cash.

Considering that Patrick beat the previous incumbent in the primary by running to his right, it would really be something if George P challenges him from the center and wins. Notably, he ran far behind Abbott and P, so I could see him being vulnerable in either the primary or general.

[NewYorkExpress]

In a Biden midterm, whoever the Republican nominee is wins. Texas is at that point where it flips like a hat, and isn't safe for one party or the other.

In a Trump midterm, Patrick in particular would probably have to worry about a general election more. He'd get a primary challenge, but assuming he gets an endorsement from Trump, he'd win that against pretty much any other Republican (especially George P. Bush. I wouldn't shocked, by the way, if he lost renomination as Land Commissioner in 2022).

So, in summary.

Biden midterm: Safe R- Tilt Patrick

Trump midterm: Tossup (until we know which Democrats run, and whether Patrick faces a primary challenge or decides to challenge Abbott-don't rule that out either). Patrick would be Safe in a primary in this scenario, unless he decides to primary Abbott, in which case he loses, as Abbott is also popular with the Republican electorate.

[Indy Texas]

Even in an adverse Biden midterm, I could see this race being competitive.

Patrick was already on the rightward edge of the party in a state where the electorate is moving away from it. And he has plenty of enemies in the party.

His and Abbott's decisions to seek third terms for themselves are no doubt going to frustrate other state officeholders who want to move on and up in their careers.

George P. Bush is someone I could see primarying Patrick because he doesn't want to die of boredom from four more years running the General Land Office. He will call in all his favors from his family's friends, and he will argue that as a charismatic young biracial man he is the thing the GOP needs to appeal to changing demographics. Of course none of this will work and Patrick will go into the GE bruised and short of cash.

Considering that Patrick beat the previous incumbent in the primary by running to his right, it would really be something if George P challenges him from the center and wins. Notably, he ran far behind Abbott and P, so I could see him being vulnerable in either the primary or general.

He mainly beat Dewhurst because Dewhurst was washed up and had stayed around too long, having embarrassed himself in the eyes of his party during the 2013 debacle over an abortion bill that ended up making Wendy Davis a national Democratic star.

I actually voted for Dewhurst in the primary when he was running for US Senate against Ted Cruz in 2012 (because, Ted Cruz). I didn't vote for him when he decided to try for a fourth term in 2014 because his campaign was so nasty and pathetic. I'm not at all a fan of Dan Patrick but I thought bringing up Patrick's hospitalization for depression earlier in his life was despicable.