51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis

[Splash]

Finally, an exciting state at last, Michigan. She looks poised to flip back to Biden this cycle with dems posting good numbers in 2018, and good polling in 2020, with Biden leading by a decent amount and flirting with 50. Still, this is a state that is moving towards the GOP a little, so the swing should be pretty tame. Biden is set to substantially improve in the educated and growing suburbs like washtenaw, oakland kent, ottawa, etc. counties. this ultimately is what will hand Biden the state. He probably won't be posting more than modest gains in places like Wayne and Genessee. The smaller cities like lansing and kalamazoo should swing decently towards him though. Macomb is an interesting place, and should swing towards Biden somewhat, but probably not enough for a win. Look for Livingston as a place that Biden can make up ground under the radar too, with a strong congressional incumbent and decent trends. Most of the rest of the state however should continue to slowly march towards the GOP, especially the rurals, as the GOP has not maxxed out in rural Michigan quite yet.



+0.23 Trump  to +4.52 Biden (4.75 margin swing dem)

I think this a fairly good prediction, but I would flip Leelanau and Isabella to Biden. I also don't think Trump will break 50% in Grand Traverse or Bay, although he will probably win both by a slim margin. Not sure Trump will break 60% in Gratiot but he might be able to break 70% in Missaukee and maybe Montmorency. Depending on how much he's able to supercharge WWC rural voters (the ancestral dem types), he might also break 70 in Oscoda. And I think Biden will be able to hold Trump under 60% in Chippewa, Charlevoix, Antrim. That part of Michigan is trending to the left at a fast pace, partially because of all the retirees from Chicago who are moving there.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Finally, an exciting state at last, Michigan. She looks poised to flip back to Biden this cycle with dems posting good numbers in 2018, and good polling in 2020, with Biden leading by a decent amount and flirting with 50. Still, this is a state that is moving towards the GOP a little, so the swing should be pretty tame. Biden is set to substantially improve in the educated and growing suburbs like washtenaw, oakland kent, ottawa, etc. counties. this ultimately is what will hand Biden the state. He probably won't be posting more than modest gains in places like Wayne and Genessee. The smaller cities like lansing and kalamazoo should swing decently towards him though. Macomb is an interesting place, and should swing towards Biden somewhat, but probably not enough for a win. Look for Livingston as a place that Biden can make up ground under the radar too, with a strong congressional incumbent and decent trends. Most of the rest of the state however should continue to slowly march towards the GOP, especially the rurals, as the GOP has not maxxed out in rural Michigan quite yet.



+0.23 Trump  to +4.52 Biden (4.75 margin swing dem)

I think this a fairly good prediction, but I would flip Leelanau and Isabella to Biden. I also don't think Trump will break 50% in Grand Traverse or Bay, although he will probably win both by a slim margin. Not sure Trump will break 60% in Gratiot but he might be able to break 70% in Missaukee and maybe Montmorency. Depending on how much he's able to supercharge WWC rural voters (the ancestral dem types), he might also break 70 in Oscoda. And I think Biden will be able to hold Trump under 60% in Chippewa, Charlevoix, Antrim. That part of Michigan is trending to the left at a fast pace, partially because of all the retirees from Chicago who are moving there.

Thanks. I could flip Leelanau, though ill give Isabella to Trump by a hair because of college covid stuff. I could be convinced hell be under in grand traverse, but bay is just moving the wrong way and redder. He will deffo break 70 in Missaukee, bill schuette and john james did, and this area is moving R. Yeah, I might have been stretching a bit with gratiot and oscoda and montmorency though. I could agree with chippewa and charlevoix, though antrim almost broke 60 for james and schuette so no. 

[NOVA Green]

I think that you're being way too bullish on Trump's chances in suburban MN counties and his overall margins. Where things stand now, I wouldn't expect anything less than Biden+8-9 statewide in MN.

Ok, we could argue on the 8-9 statewide thing but I don't think im being bullish on Trump's chances in suburban MN. I have Trump winning Anoka by like 1 point, losing Hennepin by like 40, Dakota by like 10, Washington by like 8, Ramsey by slightly over 40, etc.

What kind of modelling are you using?

I mean we all know there are no such things as Universal Swings...

Not being a contrarian, and like what you are doing Bagel and it's really easy to pick apart State by State, County by County (not my intention at all)...

Really easy to do that, but much less easy than to present your quality predictions for every county in every state as part of an Election Countdown!

Pretty cool, but gun to head Anoka County flips in 2020...   

Darts on dartboard with fast moving conditions also create a fixed picture of time and space, maybe even in the 3rd and 4th Dimension.

So as you move through this epic series (Extremely HQ Visuals and maps). Balls to the Walls kinda zone, any bandwidth to readjust modelling along the way?

Love what you are doing here.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think that you're being way too bullish on Trump's chances in suburban MN counties and his overall margins. Where things stand now, I wouldn't expect anything less than Biden+8-9 statewide in MN.

Ok, we could argue on the 8-9 statewide thing but I don't think im being bullish on Trump's chances in suburban MN. I have Trump winning Anoka by like 1 point, losing Hennepin by like 40, Dakota by like 10, Washington by like 8, Ramsey by slightly over 40, etc.

What kind of modelling are you using?

I mean we all know there are no such things as Universal Swings...

Not being a contrarian, and like what you are doing Bagel and it's really easy to pick apart State by State, County by County (not my intention at all)...

Really easy to do that, but much less easy than to present your quality predictions for every county in every state as part of an Election Countdown!

Pretty cool, but gun to head Anoka County flips in 2020...    

Darts on dartboard with fast moving conditions also create a fixed picture of time and space, maybe even in the 3rd and 4th Dimension.

So as you move through this epic series (Extremely HQ Visuals and maps). Balls to the Walls kinda zone, any bandwidth to readjust modelling along the way?

Love what you are doing here.

nothing uber scientific, mostly just 08 to 16 trends with a brief 18 looksie. Very possible, I have Trump winning it like 49-48 only so it would not surprise me at all. If I have any substantial changes of mind before the election, I will redo them, but I haven’t had any of those yet.

[NOVA Green]

I think that you're being way too bullish on Trump's chances in suburban MN counties and his overall margins. Where things stand now, I wouldn't expect anything less than Biden+8-9 statewide in MN.

Ok, we could argue on the 8-9 statewide thing but I don't think im being bullish on Trump's chances in suburban MN. I have Trump winning Anoka by like 1 point, losing Hennepin by like 40, Dakota by like 10, Washington by like 8, Ramsey by slightly over 40, etc.

What kind of modelling are you using?

I mean we all know there are no such things as Universal Swings...

Not being a contrarian, and like what you are doing Bagel and it's really easy to pick apart State by State, County by County (not my intention at all)...

Really easy to do that, but much less easy than to present your quality predictions for every county in every state as part of an Election Countdown!

Pretty cool, but gun to head Anoka County flips in 2020...    

Darts on dartboard with fast moving conditions also create a fixed picture of time and space, maybe even in the 3rd and 4th Dimension.

So as you move through this epic series (Extremely HQ Visuals and maps). Balls to the Walls kinda zone, any bandwidth to readjust modelling along the way?

Love what you are doing here.

nothing uber scientific, mostly just 08 to 16 trends with a brief 18 looksie. Very possible, I have Trump winning it like 49-48 only so it would not surprise me at all. If I have any substantial changes of mind before the election, I will redo them, but I haven’t had any of those yet.

MI Anglo Seniors in MI appear to have recent swung hard towards Biden in recent polls...

If so, why wouldn't some of the most Anglo Senior Counties in MI start to look more towards flip zones?

Again darts on dartboards, but Biden does appear to be performing extremely well among Anglo Seniors, especially White Catholic and European Ethnics.....

IDK about White Gen-exers in Macomb County, but typical pattern of UAW workers was to buy a 2nd home (or cabin up on a lake), which essentially became your retirement home, while you sell your house in Metro MFG cities in order to be closer to fishing, hunting, boating, in an extremely beautiful part of the Midwest.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think that you're being way too bullish on Trump's chances in suburban MN counties and his overall margins. Where things stand now, I wouldn't expect anything less than Biden+8-9 statewide in MN.

Ok, we could argue on the 8-9 statewide thing but I don't think im being bullish on Trump's chances in suburban MN. I have Trump winning Anoka by like 1 point, losing Hennepin by like 40, Dakota by like 10, Washington by like 8, Ramsey by slightly over 40, etc.

What kind of modelling are you using?

I mean we all know there are no such things as Universal Swings...

Not being a contrarian, and like what you are doing Bagel and it's really easy to pick apart State by State, County by County (not my intention at all)...

Really easy to do that, but much less easy than to present your quality predictions for every county in every state as part of an Election Countdown!

Pretty cool, but gun to head Anoka County flips in 2020...    

Darts on dartboard with fast moving conditions also create a fixed picture of time and space, maybe even in the 3rd and 4th Dimension.

So as you move through this epic series (Extremely HQ Visuals and maps). Balls to the Walls kinda zone, any bandwidth to readjust modelling along the way?

Love what you are doing here.

nothing uber scientific, mostly just 08 to 16 trends with a brief 18 looksie. Very possible, I have Trump winning it like 49-48 only so it would not surprise me at all. If I have any substantial changes of mind before the election, I will redo them, but I haven’t had any of those yet.

MI Anglo Seniors in MI appear to have recent swung hard towards Biden in recent polls...

If so, why wouldn't some of the most Anglo Senior Counties in MI start to look more towards flip zones?

Again darts on dartboards, but Biden does appear to be performing extremely well among Anglo Seniors, especially White Catholic and European Ethnics.....

IDK about White Gen-exers in Macomb County, but typical pattern of UAW workers was to buy a 2nd home (or cabin up on a lake), which essentially became your retirement home, while you sell your house in Metro MFG cities in order to be closer to fishing, hunting, boating, in an extremely beautiful part of the Midwest.

I mean I have *some* ancestral D areas up North swinging to Biden like Gogebic, I just think his wins come from broader national longterm trends in places like oakland and kent counties.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Maine is a state that Biden is set to improve in modestly. The polling is better than 2016 and so will the environment be. Biden should be gaining near everywhere, especially the more growing southern suburbs of Portland. Trump may continue to gain a smidge in the most rural of rurals, but otherwise, not really. I do not think RCV will be necessary at the presidential level for any of the electoral votes, but it should be interesting if it is up for contention like that. I am a little more bearish on Maine however, with the long term movement of the state, and the still decent size gap between Biden and Gideon's polling leads. Regardless, this should still be a good year for Maine democrats, and a really neat state to watch, if nothing else, for RCV.



ME 1st: +14.81 Clinton to +19.41 Biden (4.6 margin swing dem)

ME 2nd: +10.31 Trump to +4.51 Trump (5.8 margin swing dem)

ME AL: +2.96 Clinton to +8.2 Biden (5.24 margin swing dem)

Biden is up 12.8% over Trump according to the current RCP average. This does not surprise me, given that Maine is one of the most secular states in the nation, and Trump has offered non-religious people little to cheer about. I see Biden winning the state by double digits and taking ME-02 in a squeaker.

I agree that RCV will make this fun to watch, and I have a feeling Biden will get a lot of 2nd-choice ballots.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Missouri will be one of the most boring and straightforward races this cycle. There is not a single county that could really flip this time though margins could shift around a smidge in some places. Polarization should remain King here, as Trump continues to climb in most of the state, specifically the ozarks and the northern plains. Biden will have some room to grow in the two metros, Boone and Greene counties. This plus the better national environment should be enough for Biden to lose by a bit less than Hillary did in the state, but the state is moving to the right, so it should be fairly minimal. Polls look good for Biden in the state right now, but polling in Missouri does overestimate democrats time and time again, and hence I have him doing worse than the polls indicate now.



+18.51 Trump to +14.02 Trump (4.49 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Montana is a state despite a near assurance of a Trump win, should swing towards Biden from 2016. Biden will be healthily gaining in every single major population zone which are not only the bulk of the state population, but the most rapidly growing parts too. Gallatin county notably will be among the heftiest. Expect slightly higher than national average third party votes in the state, though a drop from 2016. Trump may see some small improvements in the far eastern part of the state, for similar reasons as part of the Dakotas, with conservative industries like ranching and fossil fuel extraction booming there and bringing in new conservatives. Still, this is too small an area for Trump to see an improvement statewide from, especially with democrats running a strong ticket up and down the ballot in Montana this year.



+20.42 Trump to +13.77 Trump (6.65 margin swing dem)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Montana is a state despite a near assurance of a Trump win, should swing towards Biden from 2016. Biden will be healthily gaining in every single major population zone which are not only the bulk of the state population, but the most rapidly growing parts too. Gallatin county notably will be among the heftiest. Expect slightly higher than national average third party votes in the state, though a drop from 2016. Trump may see some small improvements in the far eastern part of the state, for similar reasons as part of the Dakotas, with conservative industries like ranching and fossil fuel extraction booming there and bringing in new conservatives. Still, this is too small an area for Trump to see an improvement statewide from, especially with democrats running a strong ticket up and down the ballot in Montana this year.



+20.42 Trump to +13.77 Trump (6.65 margin swing dem)

I would argue MT swings even a bit more towards Biden

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Montana is a state despite a near assurance of a Trump win, should swing towards Biden from 2016. Biden will be healthily gaining in every single major population zone which are not only the bulk of the state population, but the most rapidly growing parts too. Gallatin county notably will be among the heftiest. Expect slightly higher than national average third party votes in the state, though a drop from 2016. Trump may see some small improvements in the far eastern part of the state, for similar reasons as part of the Dakotas, with conservative industries like ranching and fossil fuel extraction booming there and bringing in new conservatives. Still, this is too small an area for Trump to see an improvement statewide from, especially with democrats running a strong ticket up and down the ballot in Montana this year.



+20.42 Trump to +13.77 Trump (6.65 margin swing dem)

I would argue MT swings even a bit more towards Biden

I mean it's possible, Trump's floor performance is prolly like a 52-44 win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Montana is a state despite a near assurance of a Trump win, should swing towards Biden from 2016. Biden will be healthily gaining in every single major population zone which are not only the bulk of the state population, but the most rapidly growing parts too. Gallatin county notably will be among the heftiest. Expect slightly higher than national average third party votes in the state, though a drop from 2016. Trump may see some small improvements in the far eastern part of the state, for similar reasons as part of the Dakotas, with conservative industries like ranching and fossil fuel extraction booming there and bringing in new conservatives. Still, this is too small an area for Trump to see an improvement statewide from, especially with democrats running a strong ticket up and down the ballot in Montana this year.



+20.42 Trump to +13.77 Trump (6.65 margin swing dem)

I would argue MT swings even a bit more towards Biden

I mean it's possible, Trump's floor performance is prolly like a 52-44 win.

I think it could be low single digits in a very very good night for Biden. We're already seeing lots of polls showing it in the mid single digits.

[WD]

Montana is a state despite a near assurance of a Trump win, should swing towards Biden from 2016. Biden will be healthily gaining in every single major population zone which are not only the bulk of the state population, but the most rapidly growing parts too. Gallatin county notably will be among the heftiest. Expect slightly higher than national average third party votes in the state, though a drop from 2016. Trump may see some small improvements in the far eastern part of the state, for similar reasons as part of the Dakotas, with conservative industries like ranching and fossil fuel extraction booming there and bringing in new conservatives. Still, this is too small an area for Trump to see an improvement statewide from, especially with democrats running a strong ticket up and down the ballot in Montana this year.



+20.42 Trump to +13.77 Trump (6.65 margin swing dem)

I would argue MT swings even a bit more towards Biden

I mean it's possible, Trump's floor performance is prolly like a 52-44 win.

Trump’s floor is probably closer to +3 or +4, MT will likely be in the mid to upper single digits this year.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Montana is a state despite a near assurance of a Trump win, should swing towards Biden from 2016. Biden will be healthily gaining in every single major population zone which are not only the bulk of the state population, but the most rapidly growing parts too. Gallatin county notably will be among the heftiest. Expect slightly higher than national average third party votes in the state, though a drop from 2016. Trump may see some small improvements in the far eastern part of the state, for similar reasons as part of the Dakotas, with conservative industries like ranching and fossil fuel extraction booming there and bringing in new conservatives. Still, this is too small an area for Trump to see an improvement statewide from, especially with democrats running a strong ticket up and down the ballot in Montana this year.



+20.42 Trump to +13.77 Trump (6.65 margin swing dem)

I would argue MT swings even a bit more towards Biden

I mean it's possible, Trump's floor performance is prolly like a 52-44 win.

Trump’s floor is probably closer to +3 or +4, MT will likely be in the mid to upper single digits this year.

That would probably imply Bullock is winning so I'd have to respectfully disagree and stick with my guess range.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ironically enough, Nebraska is going to be a very fun state to watch on election night. The state at large, and congressional district's 1 and 2 are due to swing towards Biden, and Biden should be able to outright win district 2, translating to an electoral vote. Nebraska district 3 however should remain fairly stable, if not move a smidge towards Trump. district 1 containing lancaster county is rapidly growing, and due for a healthy swing to Biden, while the rest of the farmland in the district is pretty stagnant in almost every way, besides its chunk of sarpy county, which that chunk is similar to lancaster except less blue. District 2 containing Omaha and most of its surrounding suburbs is also growing fast, and is a upper middle income district with many college educated whites, ripe for Biden to flip. Expect nice gains in not only Douglas, but also in its chunk of most of Sarpy county for Biden. District 3 is fairly stagnant in also almost every sense of the word. It is almost all rural farmland, and is the anchor to keeping the state at large completely safe for republicans. There simply is not much bright for democrats here, and they will just end up taking their lumps here. In spite of this, the growing 1st and 2nd districts swings towards Biden will be too much for the state not to swing towards Biden, though the 1st district is still safe for republicans as there is too much ruby red farmland for lancaster county to overcome.



NE 1st: +21.22 Trump to +14.85 Trump (6.37 margin swing dem)

NE 2nd: +2.24 Trump to +3.91 Biden (6.15 margin swing dem)

NE 3rd: +54.87 Trump to +55.88 Trump (1.01 margin swing rep)

NE AL:  +25.05 Trump to +20.99 Trump (4.06 margin swing dem)

Sidenote: If you think Biden gets 413, you will be mocked heavily by me after the election, similar to this thread

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=299092.msg6545619#msg6545619

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nevada is a state Trump hoped to pull an upset in, but it is just looking incredibly unlikely at this point. Granted, Biden is not the strongest fit ever for the state, hence the mediocre performance, but he should not have much trouble holding it. Expect Biden to make modest gains in clark and washoe, and maybe if he is lucky, gain a little bit in exurbs like douglas and lyon. Trump however should continue to make small gains in almost all of the rest of the state, as it has almost no redeeming electoral features for democrats there.



+2.42 Clinton to +5.13 Biden (2.71 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New Hampshire is shaping up to be a bad year for the entire Republican party besides Chris Sununu. Almost nothing indicates that Trump can flip the state this year, as polling which was very accurate in the granite state in 2016 now places Trump trailing outside the margin of error. This well educated and wealthier state with a large population of suburban moderates is just not ripe for Trump to flip this time. Expect the Boston suburbs in the south of state (where most of the population is) to swing towards Biden moderately, as well as the areas along the Connecticut river. This is the vast majority of the population in the state, and hence makes it out of bounds for Trump to improve, as he may hold ground up north in places like coos, if not even expanding a bit in some swaths of towns, but it will be in vain.



+0.37 Clinton to +5.15 Biden (4.78 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

NJ is a safe D state, but a little more interesting than at first glance. Biden is very likely to modestly improve there over Hillary do to the widening north south divide of the state that, with the more populous north moving towards Biden. Biden should be expected to do very well in suburban Karenland like Morris and Somerset counties. The south is trending more rightward though, and a narrow flip in Gloucester county is probably within the deck right now, even as Trump may improve in some places like cape may county. Regardless, this will not be nearly enough to swing the state towards him, as Biden and congressional democrats in the state are headed towards a good year.



+14.10 Clinton to +17.94 Biden (3.84 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New Mexico? More like Blue Mexico. Any chance (which was already next to 0% to begin with) of Trump winning the state, as per former Trump campaign senior adviser for data and digital operations (and arrested wife beater) Brad Parscale's dreams, has quickly dissipated into a safe D rating. People who voted for Gary Johnson here can be expected to break even more towards Biden than in other states, as Biden swings most areas of the state modestly towards him (especially Bernanillo and the northern solid D counties) Trump may improve a little out east in the areas with no hope for democrats, and an oil industry only concentrating into more red areas. This will not be enough to swing the state towards him though. Neither candidate is a particularly strong fit for the state, though I may be underestimating Biden by a bit. Keep in mind that a lot of the shades shifting darker for Trump do not necessarily indicate margin improvement, rather being so close to the next shading group which will inevitably bump him over in some places with less third party vote this time.



+8.22 Clinton to +12.29 Biden (4.07 margin swing dem)

[Real Texan Politics]

New Mexico? More like Blue Mexico. Any chance (which was already next to 0% to begin with) of Trump winning the state, as per former Trump campaign senior adviser for data and digital operations (and arrested wife beater) Brad Parscale's dreams, has quickly dissipated into a safe D rating. People who voted for Gary Johnson here can be expected to break even more towards Biden than in other states, as Biden swings most areas of the state modestly towards him (especially Bernanillo and the northern solid D counties) Trump may improve a little out east in the areas with no hope for democrats, and an oil industry only concentrating into more red areas. This will not be enough to swing the state towards him though. Neither candidate is a particularly strong fit for the state, though I may be underestimating Biden by a bit. Keep in mind that a lot of the shades shifting darker for Trump do not necessarily indicate margin improvement, rather being so close to the next shading group which will inevitably bump him over in some places with less third party vote this time.



+8.22 Clinton to +12.29 Biden (4.07 margin swing dem)

I still think Valencia goes to Biden. Yes it has the longest streak of voting for the election winner but the main reason Trump did well here was the third party vote. If most of the Gary voters vote for Biden, I could see Valencia flipping ever so slightly.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New Mexico? More like Blue Mexico. Any chance (which was already next to 0% to begin with) of Trump winning the state, as per former Trump campaign senior adviser for data and digital operations (and arrested wife beater) Brad Parscale's dreams, has quickly dissipated into a safe D rating. People who voted for Gary Johnson here can be expected to break even more towards Biden than in other states, as Biden swings most areas of the state modestly towards him (especially Bernanillo and the northern solid D counties) Trump may improve a little out east in the areas with no hope for democrats, and an oil industry only concentrating into more red areas. This will not be enough to swing the state towards him though. Neither candidate is a particularly strong fit for the state, though I may be underestimating Biden by a bit. Keep in mind that a lot of the shades shifting darker for Trump do not necessarily indicate margin improvement, rather being so close to the next shading group which will inevitably bump him over in some places with less third party vote this time.



+8.22 Clinton to +12.29 Biden (4.07 margin swing dem)

I still think Valencia goes to Biden. Yes it has the longest streak of voting for the election winner but the main reason Trump did well here was the third party vote. If most of the Gary voters vote for Biden, I could see Valencia flipping ever so slightly.

Yeah I have it very tight like 48-47 Trump, deffo could flip though.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New York is a state that Biden has emerged as a stronger fit for than I first expected. Biden is doing well with working class white folk who often went for Obama, and there is a good chance he rebounds a bit upstate. Biden should also be expected to continue making strong gains in wealthy suburbs like Westchester. This is all good news for the nearby state of Pennsylvania, and further up not bordering Maine 2nd congressional district. There really aren't many areas Trump can be expected to gain in, and frankly this prediction might be being a little too generous to Trump, as at best he could maybe stall out Biden gains in places like the Bronx, which are maxxed out for democrats. All in all, this should be a good night for democrats in the state, as they seek to hold onto 4! congressional districts that Trump won. The republicans really are trying their best to drop the ball hard in these seats though, especially NY 19th where they have run an absolutely broke and weak campaign thanks to D tier candidate
@Kyle4Congress as well as NRCC incompetence, courtesy of Tom Emmer.



+22.49 Clinton to +26.29 Biden (3.80 margin swing dem)

[Real Texan Politics]

Curious about your North Carolina analysis. Hopefully that'll make predicting who wins it easier for me.

[Thomas D]

You have Biden beating LBJ's 1964 NY vote total of 4,913,156

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

You have Biden beating LBJ's 1964 NY vote total of 4,913,156

I mean New York is substantially larger than then. Also, I still have Biden winning less than Obama both times. I only have turnout ticking up a little more than 2% from 2016. I just have third party share breaking more towards Biden, while Trump stays stagnant.