51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

salutations for the dedication you sunk into this. We shall see how close your estimates were once all votes are counted.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Your predictions are way too Republican friendly at this point. Minnesota is in no way competitive.

You were saying?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Montana is a state despite a near assurance of a Trump win, should swing towards Biden from 2016. Biden will be healthily gaining in every single major population zone which are not only the bulk of the state population, but the most rapidly growing parts too. Gallatin county notably will be among the heftiest. Expect slightly higher than national average third party votes in the state, though a drop from 2016. Trump may see some small improvements in the far eastern part of the state, for similar reasons as part of the Dakotas, with conservative industries like ranching and fossil fuel extraction booming there and bringing in new conservatives. Still, this is too small an area for Trump to see an improvement statewide from, especially with democrats running a strong ticket up and down the ballot in Montana this year.



+20.42 Trump to +13.77 Trump (6.65 margin swing dem)

I would argue MT swings even a bit more towards Biden

I wouldn't. I nailed it chief.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'll be stunned if Trump wins Oklahoma county. I don't see that happening at all.

Well I did.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Good job Bagel

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Washington is a safe D state, but it is incredibly stagnant in terms of how it votes presidentially. The national environment and less third party votes should slightly benefit Biden this year, but nothing wild. His gains will come mostly all from the Puget sound counties as Trump improves most everywhere else. The gains in all areas both ways should be fairly modest though, but Biden has the slight edge on that front with the Puget sound counties being most of the state, and the fastest growing ones. This is just a furthering of polarization.



+16.23 Clinton to +17.28 Biden (1.05 margin swing dem)

Change Spokane to <50% Trump and Whitman to <50% Biden and I agree with this.

I just gave Whitman to Trump because of the college thing, as for Spokane, maybe, but I still have Biden narrowing some of the gap from 2016, but Trump narrowly getting over 50% because of way less third party vote this time. Most of it will go to Biden, but enough to Trump where he edges over 50 in Spokane I think.

Ayyy called Spokane and Whitman. Totally didn't see Walla Walla flipping, although Pacific was more predictable.  

11/12 edit: Spokane county went back up for Trump (50.7%), and Walla Walla and Pacific flipped back to Trump. He actually got ~52% in Walla Walla.

[Astatine]

Wow, with hindsight, this analysis was pretty good and several margins and trends were nailed (AL margin almost exactly, ME and MT were also quite precise, MI is likely to end up with a margin that you predicted, and that's the only ones I quickly found while re-reading the thread...).

And ofc much more accurate than almost all of the polls.

Props.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Requested epilogue:

Well, what can I say, I think this was a blast. I don't claim to be perfect, and I made a lot of mistakes, but I do claim to being better than most of you this time lol. I guessed who would win every single presidential race right except for Georgia, and I got every single senate race winner right except for Maine. I also guessed dems would take around 234 ish in the house, again, not great, but better than most of you. If this election has taught me anything, it is to never assume the bottom has been reached somewhere for good. I honestly thought Trump really could not improve in places like Elliott county Kentucky this year, and that Biden had no more room to grow in places like Kaufman county Texas compared to Beto this time. From now on, I will not be thinking along those lines, and adjusting for trends even more. It was better than 2018, where I had Amy Klobuchar winning most every single county in Minnesota, but it was not good enough. At the end of the day, I strive for unbias predictions, and I take sh!t for it, and I give some back, and that is how I roll. I hope you enjoyed

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Missouri will be one of the most boring and straightforward races this cycle. There is not a single county that could really flip this time though margins could shift around a smidge in some places. Polarization should remain King here, as Trump continues to climb in most of the state, specifically the ozarks and the northern plains. Biden will have some room to grow in the two metros, Boone and Greene counties. This plus the better national environment should be enough for Biden to lose by a bit less than Hillary did in the state, but the state is moving to the right, so it should be fairly minimal. Polls look good for Biden in the state right now, but polling in Missouri does overestimate democrats time and time again, and hence I have him doing worse than the polls indicate now.



+18.51 Trump to +14.02 Trump (4.49 margin swing dem)

I got the first four digits of biden's popular vote total exactly right

ps. Yes I am a time traveler

[NOVA Green]

Oregon is safe D for the 2020 presidential and senate races, do not let anyone tell you otherwise. With that being said, it won't be a phenomenal result for democrats. Biden should be expect to improve by a bit due to the national environment, but not too much else. This will mostly come from the greater Portland area, especially with third party consolidation being a statewide phenomenon. Trump should improve in the rural east by a bit, and manage to stall out in the rest of the state, if not even improve a bit on the wwc coast. The state is quite immune to swings lately, and has been incredibly steady margin wise over the past several cycles, especially when compared to other states. Do not expect anything crazy out of it this cycle either.



+10.98 Clinton to +12.92 Biden (1.94 margin swing dem)

You missed Marion County in your Model....

Also Statewide Biden won by +16.1% (+5.1% DEM Swing).

My assumption is your model underestimated how many 3rd Party Voters would Vote Biden and/or the impact of Automatic Voter Registration through the Oregon DMV between '16 and '20.

So some of your DEM and PUB County shading was slightly off in a few spots:
(Trump was less than 50% in TLMK, PLK, WSC).
(Biden >60% Lane)

(These are naturally circumstances a bit unique to your model compared to many other states).

Still, despite my nit-picking, you had the brass monkeys perform your election countdown, and did an awesome job overall on calls!!!

Props Bagel-----

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oregon is safe D for the 2020 presidential and senate races, do not let anyone tell you otherwise. With that being said, it won't be a phenomenal result for democrats. Biden should be expect to improve by a bit due to the national environment, but not too much else. This will mostly come from the greater Portland area, especially with third party consolidation being a statewide phenomenon. Trump should improve in the rural east by a bit, and manage to stall out in the rest of the state, if not even improve a bit on the wwc coast. The state is quite immune to swings lately, and has been incredibly steady margin wise over the past several cycles, especially when compared to other states. Do not expect anything crazy out of it this cycle either.



+10.98 Clinton to +12.92 Biden (1.94 margin swing dem)

You missed Marion County in your Model....

Also Statewide Biden won by +16.1% (+5.1% DEM Swing).

My assumption is your model underestimated how many 3rd Party Voters would Vote Biden and/or the impact of Automatic Voter Registration through the Oregon DMV between '16 and '20.

So some of your DEM and PUB County shading was slightly off in a few spots:
(Trump was less than 50% in TLMK, PLK, WSC).
(Biden >60% Lane)

(These are naturally circumstances a bit unique to your model compared to many other states).

Still, despite my nit-picking, you had the brass monkeys perform your election countdown, and did an awesome job overall on calls!!!

Props Bagel-----

Yes I did overestimate Trump in the pacific northwest, I bought into the narrative Greedo was selling and I was somewhat off as a result of that.

[Bomster]

Idaho is also one of the harder states for me to guess. Biden may improve just a smidge on Hillary's loss margin due to the national environment, state trend, as well as him being a good fit for Idaho while Trump is not, but there was just so much third party right wing vote in 2016 that will be less this year, and a lot of it is bound to go to Trump, so that kind of should mute things out a lot. Trump should improve quite a bit in the southeastern rurals due to this, though Biden will probably improve a bit in the Boise area to hold fairly even.


You got this margin nearly spot on.
+31.77 Trump to +30.78 Trump (0.99 margin swing dem)

[Chips]

You were just about right on the money!