51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Texas. So much to say. Honestly, it could go for Biden and I would not even consider it that much of an upset, however I am still narrowly giving it to Trump. Expect further polarization to continue. Biden should post the biggest gains in the exploding DFW area, especially Collin and Denton counties. Same thing for the Houston, except slightly smaller gains, though still heavy ones there too. Biden should also be expected to post large gains in the Austin suburbs, flipping two counties skyrocketing in population. Biden should also be able to post gains in almost all the remaining metro areas, except for Beaumont-Port Arthur, Laredo, and the valley metros. Most of the rest of the state, even the safe blue rural parts of the valley, should swing slightly towards Trump, but this will be of little avail.



+8.99 Trump to +1.97 Trump (7.02 margin swing dem)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Excuse me, in the south they are called SUNburbs, not suburbs!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Utah is a state that does not really have many benchmarks in recently. Biden should still do fairly well though, considering Trump is disliked there, but still Safe R. There will obviously be improvements for Trump almost all across the state because a third party right wing challenger is not a large presence this time. I really do not know much else, and this will be a relatively inconsequential race, just hoping Biden can keep the margins down in the SLC area for McAdams to edge through.




+18.08 Trump to +24.76 Trump (6.68 margin swing rep)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Vermont is a state that is almost guaranteed to swing substantially towards Biden. There was a large third party vote there that leaned left in 2016 that will largely be gone this time, much to the benefit of Biden in this already Safe D state. Improvement should be fairly uniform, with the exception of northern and northeastern Vermont, which are tougher areas for dems these days. Despite this, there will be hardly any areas at all that will move towards Trump in the state, only flukey little towns.



+25.96 Clinton to +30.12 Biden (4.16 margin swing dem)

[Real Texan Politics]

Vermont is a state that is almost guaranteed to swing substantially towards Biden. There was a large third party vote there that leaned left in 2016 that will largely be gone this time, much to the benefit of Biden in this already Safe D state. Improvement should be fairly uniform, with the exception of northern and northeastern Vermont, which are tougher areas for dems these days. Despite this, there will be hardly any areas at all that will move towards Trump in the state, only flukey little towns.



+25.96 Clinton to +30.12 Biden (4.16 margin swing dem)

Will Bernie still get a sizable amount of write-in votes?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Vermont is a state that is almost guaranteed to swing substantially towards Biden. There was a large third party vote there that leaned left in 2016 that will largely be gone this time, much to the benefit of Biden in this already Safe D state. Improvement should be fairly uniform, with the exception of northern and northeastern Vermont, which are tougher areas for dems these days. Despite this, there will be hardly any areas at all that will move towards Trump in the state, only flukey little towns.



+25.96 Clinton to +30.12 Biden (4.16 margin swing dem)

Will Bernie still get a sizable amount of write-in votes?

Maybe 2-3 points at the very most (prolly more like 1% this time lol). But nowhere near the 6% of last time.

[S019ian Liberal]

Vermont is a state that is almost guaranteed to swing substantially towards Biden. There was a large third party vote there that leaned left in 2016 that will largely be gone this time, much to the benefit of Biden in this already Safe D state. Improvement should be fairly uniform, with the exception of northern and northeastern Vermont, which are tougher areas for dems these days. Despite this, there will be hardly any areas at all that will move towards Trump in the state, only flukey little towns.



+25.96 Clinton to +30.12 Biden (4.16 margin swing dem)

Will Bernie still get a sizable amount of write-in votes?

judging by this high lackluster and huge underwhelming performance in last match's primary, nope.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Virginia is a state that is finally safe democrat this cycle. There is near no chance that Trump wins it, and it is poised to substantially move to the left. Biden will continue to demolish Trump in the growing NOVA region, and do the same in the Richmond area, with just a little lag behind in the Hampton roads region, but still gains. He will also continue gaining in the smaller metros of the state. the rural black counties will stall out, and Trump should gain a little in the coal country, but this will not nearly be enough to stop Biden from his mad gainz in the state, and this will be boosted by close house races that dems are excited for again.



+5.32 Clinton to +11.93 Biden (6.61 margin swing dem)

ps. forgot to color franklin and emporia on the map, they should be in the 60-70 Biden color shade.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Washington is a safe D state, but it is incredibly stagnant in terms of how it votes presidentially. The national environment and less third party votes should slightly benefit Biden this year, but nothing wild. His gains will come mostly all from the Puget sound counties as Trump improves most everywhere else. The gains in all areas both ways should be fairly modest though, but Biden has the slight edge on that front with the Puget sound counties being most of the state, and the fastest growing ones. This is just a furthering of polarization.



+16.23 Clinton to +17.28 Biden (1.05 margin swing dem)

[Real Texan Politics]

So 3 more states plus DC, and 3/4 are safe for either candidate.

This was a fun thread, looking forward to seeing how accurate (or maybe inaccurate for all we know) you were!

[South Dakota Democrat]

South Dakota will be one of the most boring states that I will map. There is almost nothing worth mentioning in this Mississippi of the north that is just moving to the right. Biden should be able to make a small improvement from 2016 just due to the national environment and third party pattern for this cycle, where less third party vote share will be the norm and helping Biden a bit more. Biden should be able to do most of his improvement in the eastern part of the state, particularly minnehaha county, as well as slight improvements on the native reservation counties, mostly from third party consolidation, but do worse in the more oil friendly western part of the state (with the exception of pennington county which he should close the gap a little there) and that area is less populous than the east, but faster growing so it is able to keep the margin fairly steady, with just a slight improvement for Biden.



+29.79 Trump to +28.20 Trump (1.59 margin swing dem)

I really doubt that Trump does that well here.  Probably more like a margin of 20 points.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

South Dakota will be one of the most boring states that I will map. There is almost nothing worth mentioning in this Mississippi of the north that is just moving to the right. Biden should be able to make a small improvement from 2016 just due to the national environment and third party pattern for this cycle, where less third party vote share will be the norm and helping Biden a bit more. Biden should be able to do most of his improvement in the eastern part of the state, particularly minnehaha county, as well as slight improvements on the native reservation counties, mostly from third party consolidation, but do worse in the more oil friendly western part of the state (with the exception of pennington county which he should close the gap a little there) and that area is less populous than the east, but faster growing so it is able to keep the margin fairly steady, with just a slight improvement for Biden.



+29.79 Trump to +28.20 Trump (1.59 margin swing dem)

I really doubt that Trump does that well here.  Probably more like a margin of 20 points.

Maybe, if so, I am underestimating Biden in Minnehaha and Pennington for starters.

[South Dakota Democrat]

South Dakota will be one of the most boring states that I will map. There is almost nothing worth mentioning in this Mississippi of the north that is just moving to the right. Biden should be able to make a small improvement from 2016 just due to the national environment and third party pattern for this cycle, where less third party vote share will be the norm and helping Biden a bit more. Biden should be able to do most of his improvement in the eastern part of the state, particularly minnehaha county, as well as slight improvements on the native reservation counties, mostly from third party consolidation, but do worse in the more oil friendly western part of the state (with the exception of pennington county which he should close the gap a little there) and that area is less populous than the east, but faster growing so it is able to keep the margin fairly steady, with just a slight improvement for Biden.



+29.79 Trump to +28.20 Trump (1.59 margin swing dem)

I really doubt that Trump does that well here.  Probably more like a margin of 20 points.

Maybe, if so, I am underestimating Biden in Minnehaha and Pennington for starters.

And a smattering of east river counties.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Washington is a safe D state, but it is incredibly stagnant in terms of how it votes presidentially. The national environment and less third party votes should slightly benefit Biden this year, but nothing wild. His gains will come mostly all from the Puget sound counties as Trump improves most everywhere else. The gains in all areas both ways should be fairly modest though, but Biden has the slight edge on that front with the Puget sound counties being most of the state, and the fastest growing ones. This is just a furthering of polarization.



+16.23 Clinton to +17.28 Biden (1.05 margin swing dem)

Change Spokane to <50% Trump and Whitman to <50% Biden and I agree with this.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Washington is a safe D state, but it is incredibly stagnant in terms of how it votes presidentially. The national environment and less third party votes should slightly benefit Biden this year, but nothing wild. His gains will come mostly all from the Puget sound counties as Trump improves most everywhere else. The gains in all areas both ways should be fairly modest though, but Biden has the slight edge on that front with the Puget sound counties being most of the state, and the fastest growing ones. This is just a furthering of polarization.



+16.23 Clinton to +17.28 Biden (1.05 margin swing dem)

Change Spokane to <50% Trump and Whitman to <50% Biden and I agree with this.

I just gave Whitman to Trump because of the college thing, as for Spokane, maybe, but I still have Biden narrowing some of the gap from 2016, but Trump narrowly getting over 50% because of way less third party vote this time. Most of it will go to Biden, but enough to Trump where he edges over 50 in Spokane I think.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, I really do not have much to say about Washington DC. Democrats are pretty much maxxed out there, Trump may improve by a hair in the black areas, but Biden should improve in the white areas by a little more as well. All I know is I hope they become a state someday.



+86.77 Clinton to +87.98 Biden (1.21 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

West Virginia is a state that Trump is probably going to do a bit worse in this time given his decline with whites in a state full of them. I see the biggest (relative) swings towards Biden in the panhandle areas, with smaller swings across the rest of the state. Maybe if Trump gets lucky, he can improve in ancestral rural GOP areas of the North, and maybe even a little in the southern coalfields, but those are still stretches in this time.



+42.07 Trump to +38.64 Trump (3.43 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wisconsin is a state that Biden should be able to flip back in a couple days. I am still a bit bearish on it, as it is an incredibly white state that had some really close statewide races recently, and was the most inaccurate close state in polling in 2016, even going outside the margin of error. Regardless, it is still looking like Biden should emerge ahead. The main source that will power him to victory will be the Madison metro area. Democrats posting mad gainz there should be enough for him, as he also claws back a little with the wwc steel towns around the area, as he is doing a bit better with them north of dixie. Milwaukee should also give him a slight boost, and same with narrowing things up in Ozaukee to the north. Trump probably does improve a bit in WOW, as well as some of the deep red northern areas of the state while the twin city exurban counties move modestly towards Biden, and most of the remainder of the state stays fairly stagnant.



+0.77 Trump to +1.75 Biden (2.52 margin swing dem)

[°Leprechaun]

What do you think the odds of a Biden win are at this point in time?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

What do you think the odds of a Biden win are at this point in time?

70-75%

[KaiserDave]

Chances of Monogalia going to Joe?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Chances of Monogalia going to Joe?

25-30%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wyoming will go for Trump, but likely by a slightly reduced margin from last time. Biden should see an improvement in teton and albany counties, and is right on the cusp of flipping albany. He should also be able to improve in Natrona and Laramie counties as well, the western part of the state should also move his way a little, thereby preventing trump from improving in the state, even as he improves a bit in the rural east as well.



+45.77 Trump to +42.84 Trump (2.93 margin swing dem)

[ultraviolet]

Wow...this is the end...🥺😢

It’s been fun

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow...this is the end...🥺😢

It’s been fun

I never saw you in this thread before this, but it made me realize that a lot of people were watching this over many weeks, and I want to thank all of you for that, and I hope yall enjoyed as much as I did.