2021 Seattle mayoral thread

[Left Wing]

Considering the primary is less than a year away, I think it’s time to make a thread on this race. Jenny Durkan is running for a second term but I think she’s DOA. Lorena González and Teresa Mosqueda are speculated to run and I could easily see Durkan not making the top two if both of them run. Another potential candidate is Carmen Best but she might be done with public life after what’s happened recently.

[Left Wing]

As for the race, I expect some sort of Sawant-aligned candidate to run, if not Nikkita Oliver then someone similar, and garner 25% of the electorate automatically.  Whoever that is, they'll likely make the runoff, especially if both Gonzalez and Mosqueda run.

There will probably be some sort of Ari Hoffman SAFE Seattle style candidate running who will lock up all the Republicans in Seattle, so that's another 10% accounted for.

What's interesting is if someone runs slightly to the right of Durkan and tries to get the Speak Out Seattle vote, like a Bruce Harrell or Alex Pedersen type candidate (obviously not those two).  Running a law-and-order campaign and promising to get rid of the homeless encampments and keep Amazon in Seattle would draw in a lot of wealthier folks, SFH voters and business owners.  Someone like Jim Pugel, who narrowly lost the D7 race to Andrew Lewis, could be a good figurehead for that coalition.  Such a candidate could be the death knell for Durkan as she'll no longer be the most moderate candidate in the race.

It will also be interesting to see what role Amazon plays.  In 2019 their PAC donated to a few city council candidates and pretty much singlehandedly caused those candidates to lose, since their opponents could portray them as pawns of the hated Amazon.  They all lost by low single-digits, creating an extremist supermajority on the council that then passed a punitive "tax of attainder" designed to drive Amazon out of Seattle.  And Sawant is still on the warpath for even more anti-Amazon taxes until the company is well and truly dead.  Amazon is very invested in the city and would like to see the anti-Amazon tax reversed, and certainly not have more anti-Amazon taxes.  But their involvement in the election could easily be a third rail that just causes anyone remotely associated with Amazon to lose by default.

I should have added that Drukan is DOA againsta nyone except for Sawant and Oliver. I doubt Sawant will run herself. She likes hanging onto that council seat. The problem with your hypothesis of the Sawant-Oliver type candidate getting 25% of the vote is that there will probably be multiple different young activists trying to fill that lane. I think this will allow Gonzalez or Mosqueda to get through to the top two and beat Durkan by like 60-40. I don't think Gonzalez and Mosqueda will both run. As you said, they could screw each other up. Another possibility is Mike McGinn running again but I think he's smart enough to know his time has passed. If Pugel runs as the law and order candidate, then Durkan is definitely not making the top two.

[Left Wing]

I should have added that Drukan is DOA againsta nyone except for Sawant and Oliver. I doubt Sawant will run herself. She likes hanging onto that council seat. The problem with your hypothesis of the Sawant-Oliver type candidate getting 25% of the vote is that there will probably be multiple different young activists trying to fill that lane. I think this will allow Gonzalez or Mosqueda to get through to the top two and beat Durkan by like 60-40. I don't think Gonzalez and Mosqueda will both run. As you said, they could screw each other up. Another possibility is Mike McGinn running again but I think he's smart enough to know his time has passed. If Pugel runs as the law and order candidate, then Durkan is definitely not making the top two.

I think if Durkan makes it through the primary, she could definitely win a general, especially if her opponent is to her left.

Moderates are frustrated with Durkan, but they're not going to vote to replace her with someone on the far left like Cary Moon (her opponent in 2017).

The real danger for Durkan is the primary.  Aspiring mayors smell blood in the water and there could be a lot of candidates, and her coalition will break up into a bunch of people who have her as their second choice but some other candidate as their first choice.

If Mosqueda or Gonzalez runs, they will have to answer for the actions taken by the city council over the last few years, which have been very unpopular city-wide.



As a data point, here is a poll from the early days of CHAZ, when the lefties in the city were at peak power as a result of violence in the anti-police protests and nationwide BLM enthusiasm.  This is before CHAZ turned into a blood-soaked s--tshow.  Events have obviously been heavily in Durkan's favor since this poll was taken.

We can see that even in this poll, Durkan outpolls the council and Best (who resigned and blamed the city council) was more popular than both.  Furthermore, opinion on SPD and CHAZ was nearly evenly-split, while local media portrayed it (and city council acted) as though 90% of the public was on CHAZ's side .

Moderates aren't going to vote against Durkan, but I also think they aren't likely to vote for her. Durkan attempts to pander to the left wing of the city too much for them to care enough to re-elect her as mayor. I think a good indicator of what will happen here is what happens to Ted Wheeler this November.

[Left Wing]

Moderates aren't going to vote against Durkan, but I also think they aren't likely to vote for her. Durkan attempts to pander to the left wing of the city too much for them to care enough to re-elect her as mayor. I think a good indicator of what will happen here is what happens to Ted Wheeler this November.

They won't want to vote for Durkan, but I think they will be plenty motivated to vote against her opponent if it's a left-winger like Nikkita Oliver or Cary Moon.

I think you're overestimating how many people care about politics in Seattle. The August approval poll for Durkan showed that something like 40% of people in Seattle have no opinion of her.

[Left Wing]

Moderates aren't going to vote against Durkan, but I also think they aren't likely to vote for her. Durkan attempts to pander to the left wing of the city too much for them to care enough to re-elect her as mayor. I think a good indicator of what will happen here is what happens to Ted Wheeler this November.

They won't want to vote for Durkan, but I think they will be plenty motivated to vote against her opponent if it's a left-winger like Nikkita Oliver or Cary Moon.

I think you're overestimating how many people care about politics in Seattle. The August approval poll for Durkan showed that something like 40% of people in Seattle have no opinion of her.

There's an approval poll from August?  Can you link?

Sorry I got that one wrong. It was from Pantkin Research in July and it showed 21% had neither a positive or negative opinion of her.

[Left Wing]

I missed this, but 1 month ago SEED Seattle’s Director of Economic Development and Interim Executive Director, Lance Randall announced a bid for mayor. He's a no name candidate who will likely get less than 5% of the vote in the primary.

https://southseattleemerald.com/2020/09/04/seed-seattles-lance-randall-running-for-mayor-against-incumbent-durkan-in-2021/