2021 Seattle mayoral thread

[GeneralMacArthur]

I seriously doubt Carmen Best is going to run.  I think she would rather die than ever lift a finger for Seattle again in her life and I don't blame her one bit.

Two months ago Jenny Durkan looked dead in the water.  All the left-wingers hated her for not caving to CHAZ's demands, and the rest of the city hated her for not tearing CHAZ down the second it came into existence.

Carmen Best's resignation seems to have caused a turnaround in public opinion.  That was when a lot of people stepped out of their utopian dreamscape and said "oh s**t this just got real."  It was followed by riot after riot after riot that everyone was really, really, really sick of.  Not to mention the black bloc anarchist folks creating massive public sympathy for the police by throwing fireworks at them and marching up and down Broadway smashing windows and assaulting people.  For the last six weeks, the only protests of note have been the EMDD marchers (who turn into rioters at night), and I'm pretty sure literally everyone in the city hates them except for Socialist Alternative members and The Stranger editorial staff... but I repeat myself.

The city council was also on the warpath with their #DefundThePolice initiative, and that got a lot of the public's attention.  Ultimately they had to back down since it was completely impractical.  I would expect that also engendered some favorable looks for the mayor since she was staunchly against the initiative and killed it with a veto that the council was too timid to override.

I haven't heard any criticism of Jenny Durkan for quite a while now and I feel like if you took a poll today her approvals would be back up in the 40s (compare to Ted Wheeler whose approval is like 20%).  It's all well and good to hate the mayor and blame everything on her when stuff is just generally horrible, as it was during CHAZ.  But when it's specifically another Seattle political player taking responsibility for horrible things, like the Sawant-led marchers or the Council trying to abolish SPD, people realize that Jenny Durkan is the only person in this city on their side.

[GeneralMacArthur]

As for the race, I expect some sort of Sawant-aligned candidate to run, if not Nikkita Oliver then someone similar, and garner 25% of the electorate automatically.  Whoever that is, they'll likely make the runoff, especially if both Gonzalez and Mosqueda run.

There will probably be some sort of Ari Hoffman SAFE Seattle style candidate running who will lock up all the Republicans in Seattle, so that's another 10% accounted for.

What's interesting is if someone runs slightly to the right of Durkan and tries to get the Speak Out Seattle vote, like a Bruce Harrell or Alex Pedersen type candidate (obviously not those two).  Running a law-and-order campaign and promising to get rid of the homeless encampments and keep Amazon in Seattle would draw in a lot of wealthier folks, SFH voters and business owners.  Someone like Jim Pugel, who narrowly lost the D7 race to Andrew Lewis, could be a good figurehead for that coalition.  Such a candidate could be the death knell for Durkan as she'll no longer be the most moderate candidate in the race.

It will also be interesting to see what role Amazon plays.  In 2019 their PAC donated to a few city council candidates and pretty much singlehandedly caused those candidates to lose, since their opponents could portray them as pawns of the hated Amazon.  This led to the current extremist supermajority on the council that then passed a punitive "tax of attainder" designed to drive Amazon out of Seattle.  And Sawant is still on the warpath for even more anti-Amazon taxes until the company is well and truly dead.  Amazon is very invested in the city and would like to see the anti-Amazon tax reversed, and certainly not have more anti-Amazon taxes.  But their involvement in the election could easily be a third rail that just causes anyone remotely associated with Amazon to lose by default.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I should have added that Drukan is DOA againsta nyone except for Sawant and Oliver. I doubt Sawant will run herself. She likes hanging onto that council seat. The problem with your hypothesis of the Sawant-Oliver type candidate getting 25% of the vote is that there will probably be multiple different young activists trying to fill that lane. I think this will allow Gonzalez or Mosqueda to get through to the top two and beat Durkan by like 60-40. I don't think Gonzalez and Mosqueda will both run. As you said, they could screw each other up. Another possibility is Mike McGinn running again but I think he's smart enough to know his time has passed. If Pugel runs as the law and order candidate, then Durkan is definitely not making the top two.

I think if Durkan makes it through the primary, she could definitely win a general, especially if her opponent is to her left.

Moderates are frustrated with Durkan, but they're not going to vote to replace her with someone on the far left like Cary Moon (her opponent in 2017).

The real danger for Durkan is the primary.  Aspiring mayors smell blood in the water and there could be a lot of candidates, and her coalition will break up into a bunch of people who have her as their second choice but some other candidate as their first choice.

If Mosqueda or Gonzalez runs, they will have to answer for the actions taken by the city council over the last few years, which have been very unpopular city-wide.



As a data point, here is a poll from the early days of CHAZ, when the lefties in the city were at peak power as a result of violence in the anti-police protests and nationwide BLM enthusiasm.  This is before CHAZ turned into a blood-soaked s--tshow.  Events have obviously been heavily in Durkan's favor since this poll was taken.

We can see that even in this poll, Durkan outpolls the council and Best (who resigned and blamed the city council) was more popular than both.  Furthermore, opinion on SPD and CHAZ was nearly evenly-split, while local media portrayed it (and city council acted) as though 90% of the public was on CHAZ's side .

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=85b4bf79-80ea-45f1-bddf-88ffd27c2758&c=28

June 15 is the date on the poll.

SPD Response
Great Restraint:  13%
Appropriate Measures:  29%
Unnecessary Force:  45%
Not Sure:  13%

City Response to CHAZ
Allow this to happen:  44%
Remove the protesters:  40%
Not Sure:  16%

Opinion of Jenny Durkan:
Strongly Approve:  7%
Approve:  36%
Disapprove:  25%
Strongly Disapprove:  15%
Not sure:  16%

Opinion of Seattle City Council:
Strongly Approve:  7%
Approve:  32%
Disapprove:  26%
Strongly Disapprove:  17%
Not sure:  19%

Opinion of Carmen Best:
Strongly Approve:  11%
Approve:  37%
Disapprove:  22%
Strongly Disapprove:  12%
Not sure:  19%

[GeneralMacArthur]

Moderates aren't going to vote against Durkan, but I also think they aren't likely to vote for her. Durkan attempts to pander to the left wing of the city too much for them to care enough to re-elect her as mayor. I think a good indicator of what will happen here is what happens to Ted Wheeler this November.

They won't want to vote for Durkan, but I think they will be plenty motivated to vote against her opponent if it's a left-winger like Nikkita Oliver or Cary Moon.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Moderates aren't going to vote against Durkan, but I also think they aren't likely to vote for her. Durkan attempts to pander to the left wing of the city too much for them to care enough to re-elect her as mayor. I think a good indicator of what will happen here is what happens to Ted Wheeler this November.

They won't want to vote for Durkan, but I think they will be plenty motivated to vote against her opponent if it's a left-winger like Nikkita Oliver or Cary Moon.

I think you're overestimating how many people care about politics in Seattle. The August approval poll for Durkan showed that something like 40% of people in Seattle have no opinion of her.

There's an approval poll from August?  Can you link?