1964: LBJ vs Nixon

[ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed]

What if Nixon was nominated again in 1964? How would the south have reacted?

[Alben Barkley]

LBJ curbstomp. Nixon likely still goes Southern Strategy, so might win the Southern states Goldwater did plus maybe some western/plains states. Otherwise LBJ still easily wins.

[Chips]

Incumbent Nixon likely wins against LBJ.

LBJ will win if he's the incumbent as well.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

LBJ curbstomp. Nixon likely still goes Southern Strategy, so might win the Southern states Goldwater did plus maybe some western/plains states. Otherwise LBJ still easily wins.

How? As far as I know Richard Nixon was not against the Civil Rights Act.

[mianfei]

LBJ curbstomp. Nixon likely still goes Southern Strategy, so might win the Southern states Goldwater did plus maybe some western/plains states. Otherwise LBJ still easily wins.

How? As far as I know Richard Nixon was not against the Civil Rights Act.

Nixon might well have tried to win the South, but in all the Deep South states there was intense debate as to whether to nominate LBJ electors or unpledged electors. If it were clear a more moderate GOP nominee who was not against civil rights would be selected, those four Deep South states – LA, MS, GA, SC – who actually nominated electors pledged to LBJ might not have done so. Then, in Acadiana, north Georgia and South Carolina where there had been reconciliation between local Democrats and the national party before 1964, there would have been minimally an effort to place electors loyal to LBJ on the ballot.

It is true that even in those parts of the South where reconciliation with the national party had taken place before 1964, civil rights was straining loyalties and of course in 1968 George Wallace did (almost) equally well where local Democrats had reconciled as where they had not.

So, it might be that unpledged slates would carry all the Wallace states except Arkansas, and that Nixon would retain the horseshoe-shaped bloc of states in the Great Basin and Great Plains, and a few others. Johnson would still not doubt have won the presidency easily, if not as well as he did against Goldwater:

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

I don’t see why Nixon would completely collapse in the northeast. He was no Goldwater, and had not opposed the CRA, made statements regarding foreign policy perceived to be aggressive and reckless and had not offended the NE by saying the nation would be better off if the east coast was sawn off. Nixon was ultimately a pragmatist and a man of consensus, which is obvious by his actions in the 1960 presidential election, the 1966 midterms and the 1968 presidential election. Had he run in 1964 he would have assured the Republican Party was a unified force which means the adoption of a Goldwater or Goldwater-like strategy is highly unlikely.

This means the Deep South would not have a clear choice out of the two parties which would result in the manifestation of a segregationist third party similar to what was seen in 56 and 60 except with a much greater backing. Unlike Goldwater, who managed to alienate many in the Outer South with his very laizze faire economic platform, such a party would be able to broaden its appeal to the entirety of the South and therefore you may have seen a result similar to or even exceeding Wallace in 1968.

The clear winner of the election would still be LBJ, who was riding on the wave of being the VP of a popular POTUS who was assassinated only a year before. Nixon would win a handful of Plains and Mountain states, Vermont, Maine and maybe IN and NH.

[Agonized-Statism]

Ross Barnett is a likelier Southern third party candidate than Wallace in 1964. He carries Goldwater's Southern states while Nixon carries the traditional Republican strongholds in the Midwest and Northeast absent the New Right. LBJ still wins because of the JFK martyrdom and the strength of the New Deal Coalition.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The states George Wallace would have carried were states where the Democratic Party would have named him as the Presidential nominee.

People don't realize how much Richard Nixon was a hero to the average Republican Middle American.  Nixon represented THEIR Republican Party, not the Movement Conservative GOP but the Main Street Republicans of rural and small-town America and of farmers and small businessmen.  Nixon's biographer, Stephen Ambrose, discusses this at length in his Nixon bio, especially in the part of the bio where Nixon told off the media at his "last press conference".  The media panned it as "Exit Snarling" and an event that made Nixon unelectable.  What the media didn't realize was that politics was Nixon's life and he wouldn't leave it at age 49.  Ambrose pointed out that some saw through all of that.  Harry Truman, who hated Nixon thoroughly, believed that Nixon was getting ready for a future Presidential run.  Some key Republicans didn't believe Nixon was done.

More importantly, Nixon's base fully supported him telling off the media.  The idea of "media bias" didn't begin with Nixon's Presidency; it was something that dates back as far as FDR.  Republican Middle America saw and felt the media bias.  They complained about it for years.  Ambrose points out that Nixon was THEIR champion, and they were more than a little bit approving of Nixon telling off the media; it was THEIR champion truly speaking for THEM.  (Indeed, Ambrose points out that in 1967, when Nixon was preparing for his 1968 run Democratic operatives went over the "Last Press Conference" tape with a fine tooth comb and determined that there was nothing it it of value that they could use against Nixon.)

A race against LBJ would have been a chance for Nixon's long-term supporters to have their day in the sun.  Nixon would have done well.  The election, I believe, would have gone to the House of Representatives, and how that would have shook out is a good question.  That would have depended on who got elected to Congress.  Had Nixon been atop the 1964 GOP ticket there may not have been GOP gains in the South, but that would have been offset by GOP holds and gains in the rest of America, and it may have resulted in a Nixon victory.

[Alcibiades]

The states George Wallace would have carried were states where the Democratic Party would have named him as the Presidential nominee.

People don't realize how much Richard Nixon was a hero to the average Republican Middle American.  Nixon represented THEIR Republican Party, not the Movement Conservative GOP but the Main Street Republicans of rural and small-town America and of farmers and small businessmen.  Nixon's biographer, Stephen Ambrose, discusses this at length in his Nixon bio, especially in the part of the bio where Nixon told off the media at his "last press conference".  The media panned it as "Exit Snarling" and an event that made Nixon unelectable.  What the media didn't realize was that politics was Nixon's life and he wouldn't leave it at age 49.  Ambrose pointed out that some saw through all of that.  Harry Truman, who hated Nixon thoroughly, believed that Nixon was getting ready for a future Presidential run.  Some key Republicans didn't believe Nixon was done.

More importantly, Nixon's base fully supported him telling off the media.  The idea of "media bias" didn't begin with Nixon's Presidency; it was something that dates back as far as FDR.  Republican Middle America saw and felt the media bias.  They complained about it for years.  Ambrose points out that Nixon was THEIR champion, and they were more than a little bit approving of Nixon telling off the media; it was THEIR champion truly speaking for THEM.  (Indeed, Ambrose points out that in 1967, when Nixon was preparing for his 1968 run Democratic operatives went over the "Last Press Conference" tape with a fine tooth comb and determined that there was nothing it it of value that they could use against Nixon.)

A race against LBJ would have been a chance for Nixon's long-term supporters to have their day in the sun.  Nixon would have done well.  The election, I believe, would have gone to the House of Representatives, and how that would have shook out is a good question.  That would have depended on who got elected to Congress.  Had Nixon been atop the 1964 GOP ticket there may not have been GOP gains in the South, but that would have been offset by GOP holds and gains in the rest of America, and it may have resulted in a Nixon victory.

No doubt Nixon would have done much better than Goldwater, but if he couldn’t win in 1960 in much more favourable circumstances for the GOP, it’s hard to see him not doing worse in 1964. After all, Republican ‘Main Street’ types hardly made up anywhere near to a majority of the electorate.

[dw93]

President Johnson vs. Former VP Nixon? LBJ wins by almost as much as he did against Goldwater.

President Nixon (elected in 1960 against JFK) vs. Senate Majority Leader Johnson? Nixon is favored, but not guaranteed a victory.

[Alben Barkley]

The states George Wallace would have carried were states where the Democratic Party would have named him as the Presidential nominee.

People don't realize how much Richard Nixon was a hero to the average Republican Middle American.  Nixon represented THEIR Republican Party, not the Movement Conservative GOP but the Main Street Republicans of rural and small-town America and of farmers and small businessmen.  Nixon's biographer, Stephen Ambrose, discusses this at length in his Nixon bio, especially in the part of the bio where Nixon told off the media at his "last press conference".  The media panned it as "Exit Snarling" and an event that made Nixon unelectable.  What the media didn't realize was that politics was Nixon's life and he wouldn't leave it at age 49.  Ambrose pointed out that some saw through all of that.  Harry Truman, who hated Nixon thoroughly, believed that Nixon was getting ready for a future Presidential run.  Some key Republicans didn't believe Nixon was done.

More importantly, Nixon's base fully supported him telling off the media.  The idea of "media bias" didn't begin with Nixon's Presidency; it was something that dates back as far as FDR.  Republican Middle America saw and felt the media bias.  They complained about it for years.  Ambrose points out that Nixon was THEIR champion, and they were more than a little bit approving of Nixon telling off the media; it was THEIR champion truly speaking for THEM.  (Indeed, Ambrose points out that in 1967, when Nixon was preparing for his 1968 run Democratic operatives went over the "Last Press Conference" tape with a fine tooth comb and determined that there was nothing it it of value that they could use against Nixon.)

A race against LBJ would have been a chance for Nixon's long-term supporters to have their day in the sun.  Nixon would have done well.  The election, I believe, would have gone to the House of Representatives, and how that would have shook out is a good question.  That would have depended on who got elected to Congress.  Had Nixon been atop the 1964 GOP ticket there may not have been GOP gains in the South, but that would have been offset by GOP holds and gains in the rest of America, and it may have resulted in a Nixon victory.

This is the single dumbest and most delusional thing you have ever posted, which is REALLY saying something.

Literally no Republican could have beaten LBJ in 1964, and Nixon wouldn’t have even done the best of them. As mentioned, if he couldn’t even win 1960, no chance in 1964. Unlike in whatever the hell kind of warped fantasy world you live in, here in the real world Nixon was never considered some sort of national hero beloved by all. He was seen as an awkward, uncharismatic, sleazy, creepy “Tricky Dick” even back in the 50s. One of the reasons he lost. There is no world in which he wins states like Illinois, California, Ohio, Oregon, etc. in 1964. All states he either lost or barely won in 1960. And all states that were easy wins for LBJ in 1964. Nixon would not have improved that much on Goldwater. Who he DID support in 1964. Maybe he doesn’t come out against the CRA if nominated, but it’s still a Democratic year and he’s still getting steamrolled by LBJ. People would just see him as Republican Stevenson at best, an already failed candidate who was only back as a sacrificial lamb.

Reminder that even in 1968, Nixon barely won. Your map looks closer to that than it does the actual 1964 or 1960 maps, which is absurd.

[MATTROSE94]

President Lyndon Johnson (D-TX)/Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-MN): 408 EVs (56%)
Former Vice President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Governor Willian Scranton (R-PA): 113 EVs (38%)
Unpledged Electors: 17 EVs (5%)
Others: 0 EVs (1%)

The closest states are California, Oklahoma, Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Louisiana. I am not sure if Richard Nixon runs again after experiencing two Presidential losses, so 1968 is probably a much different election than IRL.

[Alben Barkley]

President Lyndon Johnson (D-TX)/Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-MN): 408 EVs (56%)
Former Vice President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Governor Willian Scranton (R-PA): 113 EVs (38%)
Unpledged Electors: 17 EVs (5%)
Others: 0 EVs (1%)

The closest states are California, Oklahoma, Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Louisiana. I am not sure if Richard Nixon runs again after experiencing two Presidential losses, so 1968 is probably a much different election than IRL.

Nixon does not win California. Barely won it in 1960, so close in fact it was mistakenly called for JFK at first, so he would not win it in 1964. Plus he of course lost the gubernatorial race 2 years earlier and made an exit that, contrary to Fuzzy’s delusions, was not received too well by most of the public.

I also doubt he wins Florida, Virginia, or Oklahoma. As a Texan LBJ practically had a home state advantage in OK.

[Alben Barkley]

President Johnson vs. Former VP Nixon? LBJ wins by almost as much as he did against Goldwater.

President Nixon (elected in 1960 against JFK) vs. Senate Majority Leader Johnson? Nixon is favored, but not guaranteed a victory.

Now this is more interesting. I think that could have been kinda like 1992. The uncharismatic VP couldn’t win a fourth term in a row for his party on his own strength.

[MATTROSE94]

President Lyndon Johnson (D-TX)/Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-MN): 408 EVs (56%)
Former Vice President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Governor Willian Scranton (R-PA): 113 EVs (38%)
Unpledged Electors: 17 EVs (5%)
Others: 0 EVs (1%)

The closest states are California, Oklahoma, Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Louisiana. I am not sure if Richard Nixon runs again after experiencing two Presidential losses, so 1968 is probably a much different election than IRL.

Nixon does not win California. Barely won it in 1960, so close in fact it was mistakenly called for JFK at first, so he would not win it in 1964. Plus he of course lost the gubernatorial race 2 years earlier and made an exit that, contrary to Fuzzy’s delusions, was not received too well by most of the public.

I also doubt he wins Florida, Virginia, or Oklahoma. As a Texan LBJ practically had a home state advantage in OK.

California did vote to the right of the country in 1964, so I feel that a more moderate Republican such as Richard Nixon could have eked out a win there in 1964. Also, Florida, Virginia, and Oklahoma were some of the first Southern states to trend Republican and voted to the right of the country in 1964 as well, so Richard Nixon, Nelson Rockefeller, or any of the other 1964 Republican candidates except Barry Goldwater would have narrowly carried all three states despite Lyndon Johnson’s regional advantage.