New Democrats
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 29, 2024, 09:47:37 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Discussion
  History
  Alternative History (Moderator: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee)
  New Democrats
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: New Democrats  (Read 15159 times)
Colin
ColinW
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,684
Papua New Guinea


Political Matrix
E: 3.87, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: May 31, 2006, 03:27:55 PM »

Very interesting. I love timelines that have a multi-party America. Keep it up True Dem!

Thompson/Baucus that's a rather odd couple. Smiley
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: May 31, 2006, 07:15:33 PM »

Because American Freedom members agreed to caucus with the Republicans instead of the Democrats, they were given a number of leadership positions:

Senate:
Pro Tempore: Byrd (AF-WV)
Majority Leader: McConnell (R-KY)
Minority Leader: Wellstone (D-MN)

House:
Speaker: McCurdy (AF-OK)
Majority Leader: Armey (R-TX)
Minority Leader: Foley (D-WA)

For Speaker of the House, there was a great fight between McCurdy and Gephardt (both AF), and the Republicans threatened to take the position themselves, until Clinton intervened on McCurdy's behalf.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: June 01, 2006, 06:54:44 PM »

In July 2003, President Thompson announced he would not seek a second elected term, as he would have to resign in the middle of it.  He made no endorsement for the Republican nomination or Baucus.  Although many expected the Thompson-Baucus Republican-Freedom relationship to be rocky, but so far it had been great, due to a lack of attention on social issues.

After the midterms, the Democrats had made barely any gain in the Senate and House, and the leadership stayed the same:

Senate:
Republicans: 45 (-3)
Democrats: 35 (+3)
American Freedom: 20 (+1)
Independents: 0 (-1) (The Replibcan caucusing Independent just became a Republican)

Republican-Freedom: 65 (-3)
Democrat: 35 (+3)

House:
Republicans: 191 (-8)
American Freedom: 159 (+5)
Democrats: 83 (+1)
Independents: 2 (+2) (Both caucus with Democrats)

Republican-Freedom: 350 (-3)
Democrat: 85 (+3)

Under the Republican-Freedom majority, a number of free trade agreements had been passed.  However, the ultimate question was whether the Republicans and Freedoms would run a joint ticket or not.  Although Baucus was clearly the frontrunner for the nomination, many mentioned that Clinton wanted it too.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: June 01, 2006, 09:02:10 PM »

Here's a list of all the Presidents so far:

Reagan (R): January 20, 1981 - January 20, 1989
George H.W. Bush (R): January 20, 1989 - January 20, 1997
Tom Ridge (R): January 20, 1997 - September 28, 1997
Tommy Thompson (R): September 28, 1997 - ?

Vice-Presidents:

George H.W. Bush (R): January 20, 1981 - January 20, 1989
Dan Quayle (R): January 20, 1989 - January 20, 1997
Tommy Thompson (R): January 20, 1997 - September 28, 1997
Vacant: September 28, 1997 - November 22, 1997
Tim Hutchinson (R): November 22, 1997 - January 17, 2000
Vacant: January 17, 2000 - January 20, 2001
Max Baucus (AF): January 20, 2001 - ?
Logged
Archangel_Mikey
King Michael
Rookie
**
Posts: 104


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: June 02, 2006, 01:03:56 PM »

Will the Republicans ever loose?
Logged
MasterJedi
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,653
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: June 02, 2006, 05:37:45 PM »


Only way I can see the Republicans lose in the near future is if the Dems and American Freedom Party fixes their differences or there's another House election and they elect an AF member instead of a Republican.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: June 04, 2006, 04:15:27 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2006, 07:20:24 PM by TD »

2004 Election:

Although many called for the Republicans and AF to run a joint ticket, both parties eventually refused.  Some said this split could elect a Democrat.

For the Republican nomination, the frontrunners were maverick Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Senator John McCain (also a maverick at times) of Arizona, and Governor Jeb Bush of Florida.  Bush is seen as the only true conservative in the race, and although he loses both Iowa (to Hagel) and New Hampshire (to McCain), he eventually goes on to win the nominationl



Bush: 32 States
McCain: 12 States
Hagel: 7 States

At the Republican convention, Bush chose Hagel as VP because McCain was though as possible overshadowing him.

For the Democratic primaries, since 2000, Feingold had been the frontrunner though Democratic Governor Gray Davis of California had also declared his candidacy.  However, Feingold won every single state, as Davis dropped out before California had its primary.  At the Democratic convention in Minneapolis, Feingold was supposed to pick Davis for VP, but he instead chose Governor Gary Locke of Washington.

As for the American Freedom nomination, Governor Clinton (he had been reelected Governor of Arkansas in 2002), had decided to enter the primary.   In order to not face a nomination fight, Clinton agreed to give Baucus the VP spot, again.  After winning every single state primary, Clinton promised to serve only one term to allow Baucus to run in 2008.

After all three conventions had concluded, the first poll was released:

Clinton/Baucus: 41%
Bush/Hagel: 28%
Feingold/Locke: 21%

Most Republicans found Bush to be uninspiring while the public saw Feingold as just an extension of the failed candidate Ralph Nader.

Clinton clearly had the momentum, and even had a chance to win this without taking it to the House.

By late September, Clinton was leading 45-32-18.

On election day, Clinton had it all wrapped up, with Feingold doing horribly (and not even winning any states):



Clinton/Baucus: 46%, 456 electoral votes
Bush/Hagel: 32%, 82 electoral votes
Feingold/Locke: 21%, 0 electoral votes

And the the AF scored equally rewarding victories in the House and Senate:

House:
American Freedom: 213 (+54)
Republican: 161 (-30)
Democrat: 61 (-22)
Independent: 0 (-2)

The AF was only a few votes short of a majority, but they again agreed to caucus with the Republicans, though this time the AF got the major leadership positions.

AF-Republican: 374 (+24)
Democrat: 61 (-24)

Senate:
Republican: 42 (-3)
Democrat: 29 (-6)
American Freedom: 29 (+9)

The AF was not as lucky in the Senate, and the Republicans maintained the major leadership positions there:

Republican-AF: 71 (+6)
Democrat: 29 (-6)
Logged
MasterJedi
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,653
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: June 04, 2006, 04:23:48 PM »

Good update True Dem, but Jeb didn't win! Sad  At least horrid Feingold didn't win, and not even a state, good job there!

But, Go Republicans, and keep it up! Smiley
Logged
Colin
ColinW
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,684
Papua New Guinea


Political Matrix
E: 3.87, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: June 04, 2006, 05:20:52 PM »

Holy sh**t that's alot of red. Wyoming, Missippi, Oklahoma? My dear lord.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: June 04, 2006, 07:48:03 PM »

Holy sh**t that's alot of red. Wyoming, Missippi, Oklahoma? My dear lord.

Well, it's split vote.  Conservatives weren't too excited about about Jeb, and Oklahoma and Mississippi are marginally American Freedom Party states.
Logged
Colin
ColinW
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,684
Papua New Guinea


Political Matrix
E: 3.87, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: June 04, 2006, 07:50:35 PM »
« Edited: June 04, 2006, 07:52:29 PM by Justice Colin Wixted »

Holy sh**t that's alot of red. Wyoming, Missippi, Oklahoma? My dear lord.

Well, it's split vote.  Conservatives weren't too excited about about Jeb, and Oklahoma and Mississippi are marginally American Freedom Party states.

Wouldn't most of the vote splitting occur between the Democrats and American Freedom especially outside the South? I know you wanted to have a more left wing group win but I find it kind of hard to believe in the South that the Republicans couldn't win since the leftist vote would be split between the Democrats and American Freedom, especially since Blacks would still be voting Democratic at about 40-60%.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: June 04, 2006, 07:59:01 PM »

Holy sh**t that's alot of red. Wyoming, Missippi, Oklahoma? My dear lord.

Well, it's split vote.  Conservatives weren't too excited about about Jeb, and Oklahoma and Mississippi are marginally American Freedom Party states.

Wouldn't most of the vote splitting occur between the Democrats and American Freedom especially outside the South? I know you wanted to have a more left wing group win but I find it kind of hard to believe in the South that the Republicans couldn't win since the leftist vote would be split between the Democrats and American Freedom, especially since Blacks would still be voting Democratic at about 40-60%.

Even though American Freedom is basically the DLC, their public appearance is the "Populist Party".  They attract a lot of white, moderate Southerners and African-Americans.  Mississippi was:

AF: 43%
Republican: 42%
Democrat: 15%

With the racial breakdown something like this:

White (65% of voters):
AF: 31%
Republican: 64%
Democrat: 5%

African-Americans (35% of voters):
AF: 65%
Republican: 1%
Democrat: 34%
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: June 04, 2006, 09:11:10 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2006, 07:24:26 PM by TD »

In October 2007, Vice-President Max Baucus officially declared his intentions to the seek the office of President of the United States as a member of the AFP.  President Clinton immediately endorsed him.

Meanwhile, the Republicans have had an image change.  After the last election, the main reason they lost votes was that the public felt they were too like the American Freedom Party on economics and even on some social issues.  So the Republicans decided to move the left economically and to the right socially.  The leader of this was Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi, who broke through in the AFP stronghold in Mississippi state politics (though nationally Mississippi was a toss up).

The Democrats are out of money, monentum, and candidates.  Some have suggested folding the party or even endorsing Clinton.  They will not be running candidates in most congressional races.  The Democrats have basically been reduced to third party status.

On December 4, 2007 a massive planned explosion on Saudi government installations occurred.  Terrorists were targetting the Saudi government because of their recent committment to reform.  It is estimated that 2,000 civilians were killed, including 39 Americans.  The next day, the world economy nearly crashed because a majority of Saudi oil installations could no longer be used.  The biggest decline in the stock market occurred since the Depression.  NATO agreed to help the Saudis by bombing certain terrorist camps in the Middle East.

On January 17, 2008, five days before the first AFP primary, President Clinton declared his intention to seek reelection, due to recent events.  Many analysts had expected this.  Unexpected however was that Baucus did not drop out of the race.  Baucus and Clinton never really got along that well (Baucus was one of those members of the AFP who still wanted reunification with the Democrats).  Although Clinton won the first couple primaries, Baucus went on a spree bashing Clinton, citing his promise to serve only one term and his campaign promise to pull the US out of Serbia (Clinton has since sent more troops).

Even with this, Clinton went on to win every primary except Baucus' home state of Montana.

On the Republican front, Barbour easily won the primary, as he cleared the field before entering (Barbous basically controls the party now).  At the Republican convention, Barbour picked fellow populist Republican Representative David Vitter of neighboring Mississippi.

After Clinton had secured the AFP nomination, Baucus was so upset, he no longer wanted to be associated with Clinton.  On April 17th, he resigned as Vice-President and became an Independent.  For a new VP, Clinton appointed Governor Bredesen (AFP) of Tennessee, who in his last election in 2006 had been endorsed by both the Democrats and AFP. On May 2nd, Bredesen was inaguarated as VP.  At the AFP convention, Clinton formally picked Bredesen for his running mate.

The Democrats could not afford the cost of the primary any longer, so they instead just had the county parties nominate delegates for state delegations at the national convention.  This meant the delegates had no idea who they were going to nominate, if nominate anyone at all.  The first vote at the convention broke for a number of candidates, though the "Run Nobody" option got 35% of the votes.  However, on the second vote, former VP Baucus garnered a few votes, and by the 7th vote, Baucus had won the nomation (though he had no idea he was even going to be nominated).  After making a trip to Miami to accept the nomination, Baucus nominated recently turned Democrat Kathleen Sebelius, governor of Kansas, for VP.  Sebelius, who had also been in the AFP until recently, had also like Bredesen been nominated by both the Democrats and the AFP in her last election.

After the Democratic convention in late August, the first poll was released, and surprisingly, Clinton was not in the lead:

Baucus/Sebelius: 34%
Clinton/Bredesen: 28%
Barbour/Vitter: 25%
Other/Undecided: 13%

As for fundraising, Barbour was actually falling behind.  Clinton was in the lead as expected, but Baucus was only a little behind.

The focus of Baucus' campaign was that of anti-Clinton, while Clinton focused on the "looming crisis that only I can deal with".  Barbour attempted to stress his populism, but continued to fall behind in the polls.  Unlike many other Republicans who liked Clinton, Barbour was no fan.

In late September, a Gallup poll showed the following:

Baucus/Sebelius: 35%
Clinton/Bredesen: 31%
Barbour/Vitter: 20%
Other/Undecided: 14%

Barbour had even started taking money out of the Republican Congressional fund, and by early October, Barbous was only attracting about 17% support.  Not wanting to waste the party's money, Barbour made a huge decision.  He dropped out of the race and made no endorsement (though everyone knew he supported Baucus).  Clinton got a poll bump from this, as many Republicans liked Clinton:

Clinton/Bredesen: 45%
Baucus/Sebelius: 42%
Other/Undecided: 13%

However in the debates, Baucus scored huge victories, as did Sebelius.  Baucus also gained greatly among women for his pick of Sebelius.  By election day,  the candidates were just about tied at 48% a piece.


Baucus/Sebelius: 52%, 271 electoral votes
Clinton/Bredesen: 47%, 267 electoral votes

Here's an explanation about the election region by region:

Northeast: Clinton's economically right policies were not popular here and neither was the war in Serbia.

Midwest: The recent depression had really affected farmers, who swung hard to Baucus, though Clinton still won Wisconsin and Iowa.  Baucus did well in the liberal strongholds on Minneapolis and Chicago.  In the great plain, Baucus did better than expected, due to the farm crisis and Sebelius on the ticket (homestates played a big part in this election).

Mountain West:  Baucus being from Montana made him do well here, though Clinton did better due to most Republicans swinging to him.

West Coast: This is where the War in Serbia was the least popular.  Many "latte liberals" had felt disaffected by Clinton's focus on foreign policy and not the economy.  Baucus really campaign hard here.

South: Most analysts expected the Outer South to go easily for Clinton, which it did.  However in the Deep South, former VP candidate Vitter's endorsement (which was really Barbour expressing his views) and Barbour campaigning behind the scenes for Baucus really helped him.  Whites in the South were put off by Clinton's pandering to African-Americans for votes and voted Baucus.

The new House and Senate looked like this:

House:
American Freedom: 230 (+17)
Republican: 128 (-33)
Democrat: 77 (+16)
Independent: 0 (+/-0)

The AFP gain in the House can be explained for two reasons.  First, the Democrats only contests 120 seats because of fund raising issues.  Second, Barbour's plan to give money to Congressional Republicans by dropping out actually backfired as the Republicans got negative momentum.

Senate:
American Freedom: 40 (+11)
Republican: 35 (-7)
Democrat: 25 (-4)

Most of the gains for the AFP here can be explained by the same reasons as the House, plus about 5 Republicans switched their affiliation to AFP when Barbour dropped out, fearing the end of the Republican party.

However, due to Barbour's influence, the Republicans agreed to caucus with the Democrats, as Clinton's AFP was now hated by both of the old parties.

House:
American Freedom: 230
Republican-Democrat: 205

Senate:
Republican-Democrat: 60
American Freedom: 40

Most expected the Democrat-Republican relationship to very bad.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: June 04, 2006, 10:40:23 PM »
« Edited: June 04, 2006, 10:44:21 PM by True Democrat »

By the 2010 midterms, the AFP seemed unstoppable.  The Republicans now regret caucusing with them, which only propelled them to complete control of American politics.  Even though they only control one chamber of Congress, they have the most Senators, Governorships, and State legislatures.  Furthermore, Clinton rivals President Baucus as the most prominent politician in America.

The midterms only affirmed AFP advances and Republican defeat:

House:
American Freedom: 244 (+14)
Republican: 101 (-27)
Democrat: 89 (+12)
Independent: 1 (+1) (caucuses with Democrats)

American Freedom: 244 (+14)
Republican-Democrat: 191 (-14)

Senate:
American Freedom: 44 (+4)
Republican: 28 (-7)
Democrat: 28 (+3)

Republican-Democrat: 56 (-4)
American Freedom: 44 (+4)

Baucus also officially became a Democrat in late 2009.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: June 04, 2006, 10:43:56 PM »

Here's an updated list of all the Presidents so far:

Reagan (R): January 20, 1981 - January 20, 1989
George H.W. Bush (R): January 20, 1989 - January 20, 1997
Tom Ridge (R): January 20, 1997 - September 28, 1997
Tommy Thompson (R): September 28, 1997 - January 20, 2005
Bill Clinton (AF): January 20, 2005 - January 20, 2009
Max Baucus (I,D): January 20, 2009 - ?

Vice-Presidents:

George H.W. Bush (R): January 20, 1981 - January 20, 1989
Dan Quayle (R): January 20, 1989 - January 20, 1997
Tommy Thompson (R): January 20, 1997 - September 28, 1997
Vacant: September 28, 1997 - November 22, 1997
Tim Hutchinson (R): November 22, 1997 - January 17, 2000
Vacant: January 17, 2000 - January 20, 2001
Max Baucus (AF): January 20, 2001 - April 17, 2008
Vacant: April 17, 2008 - May 2, 2008
Phil Bredesen (AF): May 2, 2008 - January 20, 2009
Kathleen Sebelius (D): January 20, 2009 - ?
Logged
jokerman
Cosmo Kramer
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,808
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: June 06, 2006, 05:52:46 PM »

Exactly what is the ideological difference between the democratic-republicans and the american freedom party now?  Is it a libertarian populist split?
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: June 06, 2006, 06:33:56 PM »

Exactly what is the ideological difference between the democratic-republicans and the american freedom party now?  Is it a libertarian populist split?

Ok, the Democratic party is basically all liberals now, with a few populists.  All the libertarians have joined the AFP.  The Republicans, under H. W. Bush, Ridge, and Thompson, moved to the left socially, making them libertarianish, but under the leadership of Barbour, the Republicans began to move populist.  At this point, the Republicans are in transition from conservative to populist.  The Demcorats and Republicans are not one party, but rather they caucus together in Congress to stop the AFP.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: June 06, 2006, 06:36:22 PM »

Going into the future is kind of boring, I think I might start a new timeline about the past.
Logged
Colin
ColinW
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,684
Papua New Guinea


Political Matrix
E: 3.87, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: June 06, 2006, 06:41:30 PM »

Going into the future is kind of boring, I think I might start a new timeline about the past.

That's why a timeline is easier to create if you think up an end first, like a multi-party America or a modern colonial India or an independent Quebec, and then working backwards from there.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: June 06, 2006, 07:27:18 PM »

Going into the future is kind of boring, I think I might start a new timeline about the past.

That's why a timeline is easier to create if you think up an end first, like a multi-party America or a modern colonial India or an independent Quebec, and then working backwards from there.

Well, I'm thinking of restarting an old timeline of mine that took place in the past.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: November 25, 2006, 01:49:45 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2006, 06:59:33 PM by TD »

I got bored, so I decided to do an update:

As the 2012 elections approach, President Baucus is leading the field for the Demoratic nomination.  The Republicans hope to broker a deal to kick Sebelius off of Baucus' ticket in favor of a Republican VP candidate.  Clinton declares he will not seek the nomination for the American Freedom Party.  The frontrunners for the nomination are Speaker Dave McCurdy of Oklahoma and Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut.  Fearing backlash because of Lieberman's Judaism, Clinton throws his support behind McCurdy, who goes on to win most primaries (the establishment, meaning Clinton, basically controls the nomination process for the AFP).  At the convention in Little Rock, McCurdy is expected to choose Lieberman, but he decides against it.  Instead, McCurdy chooses Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer.  Schweitzer, who beat Baucus in the 1996 gubernatorial race as an Independent (he later joined the AFP), is an old foe of Baucus'.  Schweitzer is seen as to the right of the AFP socially, but is still an acceptable choice to the party insiders, including Clinton.

Baucus promises to keep Sebelius on the ticket and wins every primary.  He and Sebelius are uanimously renominated at the Democratic convention.

The Republican primary is up next.
Logged
Undisguised Sockpuppet
Straha
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,787
Uruguay


Political Matrix
E: 6.52, S: 2.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: November 25, 2006, 02:19:15 PM »

Going into the future is kind of boring, I think I might start a new timeline about the past.

That's why a timeline is easier to create if you think up an end first, like a multi-party America or a modern colonial India or an independent Quebec, and then working backwards from there.
I disagree. I always go from the divergence and work from there
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: November 27, 2006, 12:38:54 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2006, 10:34:11 PM by TD »

Although a large minority of Republicans still wish to endorse President Baucus (about 20% of the party), most want to run a separate candidate.  The frontrunners include already-run Hagel and McCain, Governor Tancredo of Colorado, Senator Pence of Indiana, and Governor Charlie Crist of Florida.

The Iowa caucus is a three way split, with no clear winner:
Pence: 31%
McCain: 26%
Crist: 25%
Hagel: 11%
Tancredo: 6%
Others: 1%

New Hampshire knocks off Tancredo, but the rest of the candidates are still split:
McCain: 30%
Hagel: 25%
Crist: 20%
Pence: 15%
Tancredo: 7%
Others: 3%

However, New Hampshire is one of few states with Libertarian Republicans left.  Barbour, the party chairman, has designed the next set of primaries to focus on populist republicans, perfect for Pence.

South Carolian: Pence win
Mississippi: Pence win
Utah: Pence win
Kentucky: Pence win
Florida: Crist win
Georgia: McCain win
West Virginia: Pence win

After this set of primaries, Hagel drops out, leaving only McCain, Pence, and Crist.  Crist and McCain are splitting the moderate/libertarian vote, while Pence is easily winning conservatives.

By mid-April it is clear that Pence will win the nomination with this map of the primaries:


Pence: 37 states
McCain: 8 states
Crist: 6 states

It is notable that Pence won very few large states.

As had become the custom, Pence did not announce his VP choice until the convention.  McCain and Crist attempt to band together to allow McCain to win the nomination, but it is of no use.  Pence easily wins the nomination on the first ballot.  Crist attempts to petition the convention to become VP before Pence announces his choice, but this does not work either.  Pence announces Tancredo as his VP choice, signalling a permanent shift to the populist side for Republicans.

After the tumultuous Republican convention, the first poll is released:
Baucus/Sebelius: 51%
Pence/Tancredo: 23%
McCurdy/Schweitzer: 14%
Other/Undecided: 12%

Although it is not surprising that Baucus is in the lead, it is surprising that he is capturing a majority of the poll.  McCurdy's low numbers help to explain this.  Some analysts forcast the end of the American Freedom Party.

When a McCain/Crist ticket is included (as there has been some speculation):
Baucus/Sebelius: 39%
Pence/Tancredo: 22%
McCain/Crist: 21%
McCurdy/Schweitzer: 10%
Other/Undecided: 8%

After a couple of more polls are released showing McCain's possible strength, Senator McCain announces he will run as an Independent for President, with Crist as his running mate.   After his announcement shortly before labor day, another poll is released:

Baucus/Sebelius: 37%
McCain/Crist: 25%
Pence/Tancredo: 22%
McCurdy/Schweitzer: 7%
Other/Undecided: 9%

With McCurdy polling in the single digits, the AFP national committee is considering dropping McCurdy and endorsing Baucus.

Along with Baucus' approval:
Approve: 58%
Disapprove: 32%

Even though Baucus' approval is very high, he is not seen as an exciting candidate who can attract a lot of support.

Over Labor Day weekend, the AFP national committee meets and discusses what to do about McCurdy.  After three days of debate and voting in secret, the convention makes its announcement publicly:

The McCurdy/Schweitzer ticket will drop out of the race.  The AFP will endorse the McCain/Crist ticket.  This allows McCain to get on the ballot in every state (as opposed as a write in camapaign that was occurring in 19 states).

This is a huge surprise to those who expected a Baucus endorsement, but Clinton's rivalry with Baucus is the main cause of this.  This poll is released:

Baucus/Sebelius: 42%
McCain/Crist: 35%
Pence/Tancredo: 20%
Other/Undecided: 3%

McCain is now within striking distance of Baucus.  In the first debate on moral/ethical issues, Pence scores a huge win over both Baucus and McCain. 

The second debate (held in mid-October) focuses on foreign policy issues.  Throughout the debate, McCain is easily winning.  During his closing statement, McCain collapses on stage.  He is pronounced dead 2 hours later of a hemorrage.  The nation is in shock.

Crist speaks to the McCain family, his supporters, and the AFP national committee and agrees to take McCain's place.  The AFP agrees to this only if someone from the AFP is placed as the Vice-President candidate.  Both McCurdy and Schweitzer do not wish to run, so Crist turns to Minority Whip Senator Patty Murray of Washington, also hoping to pick up the women's vote.

After the tickets are once again set, a new poll is released, with Crist way up (showing sympathy for McCain mostly):

Crist/Murray: 47%
Baucus/Sebelius: 25%
Pence/Tancredo: 24%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Baucus is nearly in third place.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: November 27, 2006, 03:34:22 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2006, 07:41:13 PM by TD »

Here is a region by region analysis of the returns:

Northeast: Baucus did not do as well as expected, losing a lot of votes to Crist.  Pence gets about 20% in the region.

Midwest: Baucus also falters here, but Pence does much better than expected.  Crist does well, getting about 40% of the vote, with Pence in second with about 35%.

South: This is the last stronghold for the Republicans.  Outside of Virginia, Arkansas, and Florida, Crist does horribly, while Pence and Baucus (both considered Populists) battle it out, each receiving about 40% of the vote overall.

Moutain West: Pence is supposed to do well here, but he finds it difficult.  Republican turnout is extremely low, and around 35% of Republicans are voting for Crist, the most libertarian of the candidates.  Baucus does fairly well.

West Coast: Crist does much, much better than expected here.  Pence does horribly, so Crist and Baucus battle it out with about 45% of the vote apiece.

The election indicated that Crist is the only truly national candidate.  Pence only got over 25% of the vote in the South, Midwest, and Mountain West, while Baucus only got over 35% in the Northeast, South, and West coast.  Crist does well everywhere but the South which is a reversal from the days when the AFP was centered in the South.  The new center of the AFP appears to be the West.  The election looks to be thrown to the House, until California is declared for Crist by a margin of 50,000 votes.


Crist/Murray: 45%, 273 electoral votes
Pence/Tancredo: 28%, 155 electoral votes
Baucus/Sebelius: 26%, 110 electoral votes

Note: For the new electoral votes, I used muon2's numbers found here

In his election night speech, Crist promises to officially join the American Freedom Party.

In Congressional elections, the AFP once again faired very well.  Although they lost over 15 House seats in the South, they still managed a net pickup, mostly on Crists' coattails.  Most of the seats were taken from any remaining moderate Republicans (many of who switched to the AFP with Crist).

House:
American Freedom: 265 (+21)
Democrat: 88 (-1)
Republican: 82 (-19)
Indpendent: 0 (-1)

With caucusing:
American Freedom: 265 (+21)
Republican-Democrat: 170 (-21)

In the Senate, AFP has captured a majority for the first time in its history:

Senate:
American Freedom: 51 (+7)
Democrat: 29 (+1)
Republican: 20 (-8)

With caucusing:

American Freedom: 51 (+7)
Republican-Democrat: 49 (-7)

With control of the executive and both houses of congress, one party control by the AFP has been achieved.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: November 28, 2006, 05:15:56 PM »

Should I continue?
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.114 seconds with 12 queries.