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September 29, 2020, 07:45:19 am
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Discussion thread link: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=400306.0

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  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  OK-05-Normington Petts (Horn internal): Horn +8
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Author Topic: OK-05-Normington Petts (Horn internal): Horn +8  (Read 563 times)
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« on: September 13, 2020, 01:55:42 pm »

Kendra Horn (D-inc) 52
Stephanie Bice (R) 44

No Presidential toplines.

https://yssa13oenteni03j19qj7f6n-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Horn-Poll-Memo-9.11.20.pdf
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Western Democrat
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2020, 01:59:51 pm »

Yeah, this will likely end up a narrow Horn victory. Mostly likely 50-49 Horn. Tilt D
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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2020, 02:28:46 pm »

So, with Bice’s internal, we could have a 6 point race?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2020, 02:59:03 pm »

Yeah, the totality of evidence at this point strongly suggests that Horn will hold the district.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2020, 03:05:35 pm »

August 31-September 3
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Undecided 4%
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VARepublican
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2020, 03:31:43 pm »

This is the first Democratic internal in a long time to have no presidential toplines.
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Pollster
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2020, 03:36:31 pm »

52/44 is very likely within this poll's 5% margin of error of the truth.
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VARepublican
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« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2020, 07:26:50 am »

Horn approval: 55-37 (+18)
Horn fav: 46-35 (+11)
Bice fav: 32-35 (-3)
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2020, 09:32:18 am »

Looks pretty clear that this will be something close to a 50-50 race, so everyone predicting Horn's demise after the primary runoff were a bit premature. If people want a cleaner Dem loss, they would have a better time looking to MN-07 right now.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2020, 11:08:38 am »

Yeah, but I thought that OK-05 was a "fluke" in 2018 and that it was guaranteed to flip back this year!
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2020, 12:51:12 am »

This is what I like to see!
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yfnlucci
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« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2020, 01:13:38 am »

OK GOP will crack this district in 2022 right
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2020, 02:22:04 am »
« Edited: September 16, 2020, 02:26:13 am by EastOfEden »

Told you she was safe.

OK GOP will crack this district in 2022 right

Probably, but if she surprises everyone (again) and wins by as much as this poll claims, maybe they'll try to draw a sink instead (probably some kind of absurd shoestring from Norman through OKC to Tulsa) and just make every other Oklahoma district Titanium R (as if they weren't already).

Same for UT-04 with Ben McAdams.
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Jayde
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« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2020, 03:08:08 am »

Told you she was safe.

OK GOP will crack this district in 2022 right

Probably, but if she surprises everyone (again) and wins by as much as this poll claims, maybe they'll try to draw a sink instead (probably some kind of absurd shoestring from Norman through OKC to Tulsa) and just make every other Oklahoma district Titanium R (as if they weren't already).

Same for UT-04 with Ben McAdams.



I managed to make a vote sink like this. If the GOP wanted to remove Norman and Stillwater, they could easily get rid of those Democratic suburbs that are making OK-4 competitive though. (This map uses Gov 2018 as the election)
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Stuart98
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« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2020, 06:15:17 am »

Why would the GOP make a sink though? Wouldn't be hard to crack OKC, and OK01 is a long ways from being competitive even in a wave year.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2020, 09:40:23 am »

Why would the GOP make a sink though? Wouldn't be hard to crack OKC, and OK01 is a long ways from being competitive even in a wave year.

Suburban Tulsa can't refuse to realign forever. It's just lagging a bit, as the rest of the region has.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #16 on: September 16, 2020, 02:00:07 pm »

mommy kendra
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