UT-04 (RMG Research): McAdams +4

[VAR]

Sep 7-12, 800 LV, MoE: 3.5%

McAdams (D-inc.) 45% (+10)
Owens (R) 41% (+6)
Molnar (L) 2% (-2)
Broderick (UU) 1% (-1)
Not sure 11% (-13)

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/9/14/21436226/poll-democrat-mcadams-holds-slight-lead-over-owens-in-utahs-4th-congressional-district

Owens fav: 45/33 (+12)
McAdams fav: 52/36 (+16)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The changes you've listed are from their last poll, which was for registered voters (this is an LV sample so I wouldn't read into trends).

FYI, RMG Research is Scott Rasmussen's latest outfit and a fair bit more reliable than his old company these days.

Conducted for Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute of Politics

McAdams won 50.1%-49.9% in '18.

[SnowLabrador]

That's a lot of undecideds, but the margin's pretty plausible.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

What's (UU)?

[VAR]

What's (UU)?

United Utah Party.

[Tintrlvr]

What's (UU)?

United Utah Party.

They describe themselves as centrist but seem to be never-Trumper Mormon ex-Republicans, specifically.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What's (UU)?

A group of slightly lost-looking Ulster Unionists.

[ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed]

Owens will win. NeverTrumpers will like him.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Owens will win. NeverTrumpers will like him.

Really? I'd vote for McAdams in a heartbeat. 

[VAR]

52% favorability bodes well for McAdams’ chances. Tilt/Lean D.

[ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed]

Owens will win. NeverTrumpers will like him.

Really? I'd vote for McAdams in a heartbeat. 

You're not from UT-04

[We Live in Black and White]

Owens will win. NeverTrumpers will like him.

Really? I'd vote for McAdams in a heartbeat. 

You're not from UT-04

I really hope I don't have to point out that neither are you.

[NOVA Green]

It appears as though some of the major shifts in this district starting in the '16 GE PRES race and confirmed by the 2018 CD-04 House election have not subsided...

As I mentioned on this topic, part of the '18 results were driven by a drop in Turnout in heavily Republican parts of the district, with DEM raw votes remaining intact from '16 to '18 so it remains to be seen how this will play out in a GE Environment.

However it does look as though the Republican brand within the district has taken a heavy hit with Trump as the figurehead of the Party.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306940.msg6547442#msg6547442

[Stuart98]

Owens will win. NeverTrumpers will like him.

...Why would NeverTrumpers like a Q-Anon sympathizer?

As someone who lives in the district, lean D.

[Hope For A New Era]

Seems about right. Lean D.

It's a bit like OK-05 in that one small part of the district has to outvote all of the rest, but the trends are pretty intense there. I imagine West Jordan was probably the key area that made it swing left in 2018, so with continued realignment there, the race shouldn't be too hard for him. Generational replacement carries a pretty strong leftward shift in Utah as well.

What's funny is that there are signs for this race (both McAdams and Owens) all over SLC, including far beyond the district's actual boundaries. It seems to have become somewhat of a de facto statewide race, even though only a few can actually vote in it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

mcadams is such a daddy

[DaleCooper]

If Biden is at 35% statewide, McAdams should be fine. Owens was one of the worst imaginable candidates for this district. I doubt Salt Lake City wants a crazed ex-NFL player who's tangentially connected to QAnon.