2000 NY-SEN Dem Primary: John F Kennedy JR vs Hillary Clinton

[MillennialModerate]

JFK Jr wins in a layup IMO. But discuss...

[Left Wing]

Clinton-55.35
Kennedy-44.51
Write-ins-0.14

[Roll Roons]

I don't think Hillary would even run against him. It's more likely that she goes back to Arkansas, runs against Huckabee in 2002 and very possibly beats him. But if the primary did happen, JFK Jr wins easily.

And assuming he doesn't fall victim to his family's curse, he very likely runs for president at some point down the road. For all we know, 2008 would be a three-way primary between him, Hillary and Obama. If Obama is still elected that year, I could see Kennedy running in 2016 and beating Trump, since he was more charismatic and likable than Hillary. If he didn't run then, he would have been a top contender this year. After all, he would have only been 60.

[brucejoel99]

While JFK Jr. had been thinking about & sought input with regards to running in 2000 for Moynihan's seat (he'd even had meetings about it that spring), he eventually concluded by July, after Hillary had signaled interest in running, that he'd focus his attention on running for Governor of NY in 2002.

By temperament & interest, JFK Jr. realized he was far more suited to being a governor than a legislator. Running George gave him a taste for executive power, & he knew that he could be an inspiring, strong chief executive of a state, setting the tone for government & successfully running a complex operation. Not to mention, Teddy was pushing him toward the Governor's race.

So, even had he survived, he wasn't gonna run against Hillary, as he knew that his shot was definitely the 2002 Governor's race, which he was apparently ready to pull the trigger on it before his untimely death.

[KaiserDave]

...Hillary would still win

[NewYorkExpress]

If this primary happened, Moynihan would endorse JFK Jr. He and his wife really didn't like Hillary.

Not sure it stops Hillary from winning though.

Hillary Clinton 50.75%
John F.Kennedy Jr. 48.96%

[MillennialModerate]

While JFK Jr. had been thinking about & sought input with regards to running in 2000 for Moynihan's seat (he'd even had meetings about it that spring), he eventually concluded by July, after Hillary had signaled interest in running, that he'd focus his attention on running for Governor of NY in 2002.

By temperament & interest, JFK Jr. realized he was far more suited to being a governor than a legislator. Running George gave him a taste for executive power, & he knew that he could be an inspiring, strong chief executive of a state, setting the tone for government & successfully running a complex operation. Not to mention, Teddy was pushing him toward the Governor's race.

So, even had he survived, he wasn't gonna run against Hillary, as he knew that his shot was definitely the 2002 Governor's race, which he was apparently ready to pull the trigger on it before his untimely death.

I can see his style being more suited for Governor.

But Senator would’ve been a job for life until he got the Dem nomination. I’m not sure if there has ever been a human being more likely to be a lock for a party nomination even before he/her even got into politics then JFK JR.

I think Hillary would likely go another route. JFK probably wins 60-40 or so.

[brucejoel99]

While JFK Jr. had been thinking about & sought input with regards to running in 2000 for Moynihan's seat (he'd even had meetings about it that spring), he eventually concluded by July, after Hillary had signaled interest in running, that he'd focus his attention on running for Governor of NY in 2002.

By temperament & interest, JFK Jr. realized he was far more suited to being a governor than a legislator. Running George gave him a taste for executive power, & he knew that he could be an inspiring, strong chief executive of a state, setting the tone for government & successfully running a complex operation. Not to mention, Teddy was pushing him toward the Governor's race.

So, even had he survived, he wasn't gonna run against Hillary, as he knew that his shot was definitely the 2002 Governor's race, which he was apparently ready to pull the trigger on it before his untimely death.

I can see his style being more suited for Governor.

But Senator would’ve been a job for life until he got the Dem nomination. I’m not sure if there has ever been a human being more likely to be a lock for a party nomination even before he/her even got into politics then JFK JR.

I think Hillary would likely go another route. JFK probably wins 60-40 or so.

Sigh, literally just a redux of the other quoted thread at this point:

I can’t see them both running for the nomination since I think the Kennedy’s and Clinton’s got along pretty good. They’d work out some arrangement. Whoever didn’t run would either run for the other Senate seat or for Governor.

With that said if they went head to head I think JFK Jr wins it pretty decisively.

I think JFK Jr either becomes a twice elected Senator or a twice elected Governor and then in 2008 runs for the Presidency, in such a scenario I think Obama would probably decide against running because of the overwhelming popularity of JFK Jr and the idea of Camelot 2.0.

As much as I hate to say it, I just don't really see a path to the White House for JFK Jr., regardless of office &/or when he's first elected to said office.

The 2002 NY Governor election was completely FUBAR thanks to the Independence Party. That was also a big midterm year for the GOP because of the post-9/11 rally 'round the flag effect. Now, granted, if anybody has the overpowering aura of name recognition to overcome that, it's JFK Jr. But he could very well still lose.

2006, then. Any Democrat lucky enough to get elected that year was anointed by the gods. Come 2008, though, he just doesn't have that combination of effortless oratory, high emotional intelligence, & subtle machiavellianism that is Barack Obama. I don't believe that JFK Jr. could replicate that. At best, he'd be a spoiler in the 2008 Democratic primary.

So 2016? Well, Governor of New York is a bad place to win progressive bonafides, so unless he really crusades against Wall Street corruption, the progressives will either mildly tolerate or HATE him. Spitzer's AG background made him a natural for crusading against Wall Street, but it's easy to imagine JFK Jr. playing it safe & defaulting to the center-left like Cuomo. Forget about tapping into Bernie's progressive base or outflanking Hillary within the party.

Now, a potential return to Camelot in 2020 after Trump could work, though he'd be 61 on Inauguration Day, so he'd better have more than his looks going for him by then.

[MillennialModerate]

While JFK Jr. had been thinking about & sought input with regards to running in 2000 for Moynihan's seat (he'd even had meetings about it that spring), he eventually concluded by July, after Hillary had signaled interest in running, that he'd focus his attention on running for Governor of NY in 2002.

By temperament & interest, JFK Jr. realized he was far more suited to being a governor than a legislator. Running George gave him a taste for executive power, & he knew that he could be an inspiring, strong chief executive of a state, setting the tone for government & successfully running a complex operation. Not to mention, Teddy was pushing him toward the Governor's race.

So, even had he survived, he wasn't gonna run against Hillary, as he knew that his shot was definitely the 2002 Governor's race, which he was apparently ready to pull the trigger on it before his untimely death.

I can see his style being more suited for Governor.

But Senator would’ve been a job for life until he got the Dem nomination. I’m not sure if there has ever been a human being more likely to be a lock for a party nomination even before he/her even got into politics then JFK JR.

I think Hillary would likely go another route. JFK probably wins 60-40 or so.

Sigh, literally just a redux of the other quoted thread at this point:

I can’t see them both running for the nomination since I think the Kennedy’s and Clinton’s got along pretty good. They’d work out some arrangement. Whoever didn’t run would either run for the other Senate seat or for Governor.

With that said if they went head to head I think JFK Jr wins it pretty decisively.

I think JFK Jr either becomes a twice elected Senator or a twice elected Governor and then in 2008 runs for the Presidency, in such a scenario I think Obama would probably decide against running because of the overwhelming popularity of JFK Jr and the idea of Camelot 2.0.

As much as I hate to say it, I just don't really see a path to the White House for JFK Jr., regardless of office &/or when he's first elected to said office.

The 2002 NY Governor election was completely FUBAR thanks to the Independence Party. That was also a big midterm year for the GOP because of the post-9/11 rally 'round the flag effect. Now, granted, if anybody has the overpowering aura of name recognition to overcome that, it's JFK Jr. But he could very well still lose.

2006, then. Any Democrat lucky enough to get elected that year was anointed by the gods. Come 2008, though, he just doesn't have that combination of effortless oratory, high emotional intelligence, & subtle machiavellianism that is Barack Obama. I don't believe that JFK Jr. could replicate that. At best, he'd be a spoiler in the 2008 Democratic primary.

So 2016? Well, Governor of New York is a bad place to win progressive bonafides, so unless he really crusades against Wall Street corruption, the progressives will either mildly tolerate or HATE him. Spitzer's AG background made him a natural for crusading against Wall Street, but it's easy to imagine JFK Jr. playing it safe & defaulting to the center-left like Cuomo. Forget about tapping into Bernie's progressive base or outflanking Hillary within the party.

Now, a potential return to Camelot in 2020 after Trump could work, though he'd be 61 on Inauguration Day, so he'd better have more than his looks going for him by then.

A few things: Obama’s talents are off the charts - the auroa and speaking abilities of JFK, there with the legislative ability of LBJ, the patriotic virtues of Reagan, the retail politic skills of Clinton. But remember with all that came with Obama - he still barely won the nomination from Hillary. There was the “electability” argument and the “experience” arguments amongst other reasons. But it was a close primary and I think JFK JR is far tougher than Hillary. You may still be right but it’s worth considering

2016 - needing the progressive vote isn’t correct. Did Hillary need it? Not at all. I think progressives would be far more likely to tolerate JFK JR than they did Clinton, despite the fact he’d likely be Center Left and not Left.

[brucejoel99]

While JFK Jr. had been thinking about & sought input with regards to running in 2000 for Moynihan's seat (he'd even had meetings about it that spring), he eventually concluded by July, after Hillary had signaled interest in running, that he'd focus his attention on running for Governor of NY in 2002.

By temperament & interest, JFK Jr. realized he was far more suited to being a governor than a legislator. Running George gave him a taste for executive power, & he knew that he could be an inspiring, strong chief executive of a state, setting the tone for government & successfully running a complex operation. Not to mention, Teddy was pushing him toward the Governor's race.

So, even had he survived, he wasn't gonna run against Hillary, as he knew that his shot was definitely the 2002 Governor's race, which he was apparently ready to pull the trigger on it before his untimely death.

I can see his style being more suited for Governor.

But Senator would’ve been a job for life until he got the Dem nomination. I’m not sure if there has ever been a human being more likely to be a lock for a party nomination even before he/her even got into politics then JFK JR.

I think Hillary would likely go another route. JFK probably wins 60-40 or so.

Sigh, literally just a redux of the other quoted thread at this point:

I can’t see them both running for the nomination since I think the Kennedy’s and Clinton’s got along pretty good. They’d work out some arrangement. Whoever didn’t run would either run for the other Senate seat or for Governor.

With that said if they went head to head I think JFK Jr wins it pretty decisively.

I think JFK Jr either becomes a twice elected Senator or a twice elected Governor and then in 2008 runs for the Presidency, in such a scenario I think Obama would probably decide against running because of the overwhelming popularity of JFK Jr and the idea of Camelot 2.0.

As much as I hate to say it, I just don't really see a path to the White House for JFK Jr., regardless of office &/or when he's first elected to said office.

The 2002 NY Governor election was completely FUBAR thanks to the Independence Party. That was also a big midterm year for the GOP because of the post-9/11 rally 'round the flag effect. Now, granted, if anybody has the overpowering aura of name recognition to overcome that, it's JFK Jr. But he could very well still lose.

2006, then. Any Democrat lucky enough to get elected that year was anointed by the gods. Come 2008, though, he just doesn't have that combination of effortless oratory, high emotional intelligence, & subtle machiavellianism that is Barack Obama. I don't believe that JFK Jr. could replicate that. At best, he'd be a spoiler in the 2008 Democratic primary.

So 2016? Well, Governor of New York is a bad place to win progressive bonafides, so unless he really crusades against Wall Street corruption, the progressives will either mildly tolerate or HATE him. Spitzer's AG background made him a natural for crusading against Wall Street, but it's easy to imagine JFK Jr. playing it safe & defaulting to the center-left like Cuomo. Forget about tapping into Bernie's progressive base or outflanking Hillary within the party.

Now, a potential return to Camelot in 2020 after Trump could work, though he'd be 61 on Inauguration Day, so he'd better have more than his looks going for him by then.

A few things: Obama’s talents are off the charts - the auroa and sleeping abilities of JFK, there with the legislative ability of LBJ, the patriotic virtues of Reagan, the retail politic skills of Clinton. But remember with all that came with Obama - he still barely won the nomination from Hillary. There was the “electability” argument and the “experience” arguments amongst other reasons. But it was a close primary and I think JFK JR is far tougher than Hillary. You may still be right but it’s worth considering

2016 - needing the progressive vote isn’t correct. Did Hillary need it? Not at all. I think progressives would be far more likely to tolerate JFK JR than they did Clinton, despite the fact he’d likely be Center Left and not Left.

I mean, the only reason that Hillary didn't need it in real life's 2016 was precisely because she had sufficient levels of support among moderates & the 'establishment' wing of the party, & - again - I don't see JFK Jr. being able to outflank her with them in this scenario, so yes, he'd very much need progressive support in his quest to overcome that post-2008 "it's her turn" sentiment, & even then, it'd be more than a pretty difficult task.