This will be ridiculed, but I genuinely believe a Warnock/Lieberman runoff is more likely than a Collins/Loeffler runoff.
(Neither is likely)
What's your thinking behind this? I agree that neither is likely, but have thought that there's a small chance of Collins/Loeffler and effectively no chance of Warnock/Lieberman.
Put simply, Loeffler was appointed specifically to appeal to voters who are showing less and less signs of gettability the further we get into this cycle. She is an atrocious fit for the pool of voters a Republican needs in GA, especially compared to Collins who fits like a glove. Collins is now matching her on the airwaves (she had previously been dominant) and is largely seen as a more credible messenger. We even have some research showing that Loeffler's ads tying Collins to Abrams helped him with independents more than it hurt him with Republicans.
Warnock is also better fit for the GA Dem pool than Lieberman, though Lieberman's targeting is going beyond the traditional Dem base (he's actually going for many of the original Loeffler targets, with mixed success depending on the region of the state) and is doing quite well in particular with immigration-focused voters. His ability to find votes in unlikely places is probably being underestimated, for better or worse, though the number of votes this will actually net Lieberman is questionable.
To sum it up: Loeffler and Collins are competing mostly for the same voters, among whom Collins is more trusted, more credible, and more well-liked overall. Warnock and Lieberman are also competing for a lot of the same voters but benefit from having good portions of their base being unique to them, with the advantage going to Warnock because his base is in all likelihood more populous. This most likely adds up to a Collins vs. Warnock runoff.
Poll
