More likely to flip? GA-07 or TX-24

[VAR]

GA-07:

Trump +6 (1 point to the right of GA)
Abrams +1 (2 points to the left of GA)

COH: Bourdeaux (D) $760k, McCormick (R) $106k

DCCC (D): Bourdeaux 42-39

TX-24:

Trump +6 (3 points to the left of TX)
O’Rourke +3.5 (6 points to the left of TX)

COH: Van Duyne (R) $483k, Valenzuela (D) $111k

ALG Research (D): Valenzuela 45-39
Victoria Research (D): Valenzuela 48-41
RMG Research: Tied at 36%

GA-07 WAS closer in 2018, but it should be noted that Democrats didn’t contest TX-24 that year.

[YE]

GA-07 is more inelastic so that.

[Roll Roons]

GA-07. I think it's the fourth most likely R-held seat to flip, after the two in NC and TX-23. Though TX-24 and TX-22 certainly aren't far behind.

[SnowLabrador]

GA-07.

[Xing]

GA-07, though I think both flip at this point.

[Smash255]

Both will flip, but GA-07 is more likely.

[Gracile]

GA-07 by slightly more. I don't buy that these districts will vote significantly apart, though. They both have remarkably similar profiles in terms of their racial/ethnic makeup, rates of educational attainment, and partisan trajectory.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

GA 7 by a smidge, but TX 24 is looking really good too. Valenzuela called my dad this morning to update him on the race, she in a good position, and he sending her another 500 dollars, 4ish pt internal leads as of rn, undecideds are closing, slightly more in favor of her.