TX-31 (PPP): Carter +6, Cornyn +2

[VAR]

Carter (R, inc.) 43%
Imam (D) 37%
Patterson (L) 7%
Bravo (I) 3%
Not sure 11%

Cornyn (R, inc.) 48%
Hegar (D) 46%

Carter fav: 40/30
Imam fav: 25/22

https://couriernewsroom.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/09/TX31Results1.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Senator elect Hegar, McConnell really miscalculated, by holding up stimulus, it has really hurt Cornyn.

[SnowLabrador]

The Senate number is consistent with Cornyn being up 2-3 points statewide.

[Calthrina950]

These are weak numbers for Carter and for Cornyn (to say nothing of Trump's numbers). It amazes me how dramatically Texas has changed in just the past six years. It is certainly not 2014 anymore.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

But but how?  Dona Imam and MJ Hegar are "bad candidates"^tm. They should be trailing by double digits against the suburban kings Carter and Cornyn

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

1. So much for the "Cornyn is gonna overperform Trump by 5+%" take. Always seemed a bit silly to me.

2. This race in 2018 was as close as the 24th/Marchant. Yet I don't know if it can flip before the 10th or 21st. I'll have to calculate 2016/2018 PVIs, for however much their worth this year. A surprise could certainly happen though, if it could be considered a "surprise". Still, can't help but laugh at how disastrous the GOP gerrymandering of Austin is playing out

EDIT: I know I shouldn't get lost in the crosstabs, but undecideds look pretty decent for Imam. Only 8% of GOP undecideds compared to 13/14% of Indys/Dems, Imam winning among Indys by 14%, 17% of AA's Undecided, 13% of Hillary voters Undecided vs 8% of Trump voters, 15% of women Undecided vs 8% of men. Democrats/Hispanics/Voters under 45 are also shown having disproportionate support for Patterson compared to other subgroups. Hmmm...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

True if big

[MT Treasurer]

Well, in all fairness, this is the district Hegar ran in in 2018, so she should be outperforming O'Rourke (who lost it by 2). Obviously Cornyn isn’t safe, though.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This district polling in 2018 NYT had Carter up 20, so keep that in mind.