MN: SurveyUSA - Biden +9
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Author Topic: MN: SurveyUSA - Biden +9  (Read 2631 times)
Granite City
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« on: September 09, 2020, 05:07:46 PM »
« edited: September 09, 2020, 05:11:39 PM by Granite City »
September 4-7
553 LV
MoE: +/-5.2%

Biden: 49%
Trump: 40%

https://www.kaaltv.com/minnesota-news/surveyusa-poll-biden-over-trump-september-9-2020-latest/5856931/?cat=10151
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2020, 05:09:10 PM »
so much winning
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2020, 05:09:37 PM »
*whistles* Look at this bad boy razor thin margin we have over 'ere.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2020, 05:10:40 PM »
But Horus told me it would be the tipping point state decided by less than 3000 votes, and that the genius Kanye West would sink Biden here?
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Skunk
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« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2020, 05:10:49 PM »
Sounds about right. People are overestimating Minnesota's chance to vote Republican.
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2020, 05:11:29 PM »
Trump at 40%.  I don't think MN is happening for him.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2020, 05:12:38 PM »
Crosstabs

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cc902191-9d67-498a-aa9c-d59233e2c85b
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Mail-order President
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« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2020, 05:14:35 PM »
This pollster had Clinton +11 (53-42) a week before election day
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WD
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« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2020, 05:14:43 PM »
but muh tossup state
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2020, 05:15:33 PM »
Quote from: Lying Dog-Faced Pony Soldier on September 09, 2020, 05:14:35 PM
This pollster had Clinton +11 (53-42) a week before election day

Wow, good thing it's not 2016 anymore and pollsters have updated their methodology accordingly.
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kireev
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2020, 05:15:49 PM »
Trump +1% sample...
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Mail-order President
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« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2020, 05:16:24 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on September 09, 2020, 05:15:33 PM
Quote from: Lying Dog-Faced Pony Soldier on September 09, 2020, 05:14:35 PM
This pollster had Clinton +11 (53-42) a week before election day

Wow, good thing it's not 2016 anymore and pollsters have updated their methodology accordingly.
Have they though?
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2020, 05:16:42 PM »

Quote from: SirWoodbury on August 29, 2020, 11:21:06 AM
OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!
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Crumpets
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« Reply #13 on: September 09, 2020, 05:17:04 PM »
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2020, 05:17:07 PM »
This should calm some nerves about MN (I think).
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #15 on: September 09, 2020, 05:17:51 PM »
Quote from: Lying Dog-Faced Pony Soldier on September 09, 2020, 05:16:24 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on September 09, 2020, 05:15:33 PM
Quote from: Lying Dog-Faced Pony Soldier on September 09, 2020, 05:14:35 PM
This pollster had Clinton +11 (53-42) a week before election day

Wow, good thing it's not 2016 anymore and pollsters have updated their methodology accordingly.
Have they though?

1. Yes. Among other things, they now weight by education which was the biggest problem before. That and the large number of undecideds in many polls which ultimately broke for Trump, although admittedly that didn't seem to be as big of an issue in this particular case.

2. As mentioned, this sample was Trump +1 in 2016. Good luck explaining that away.
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Horus
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« Reply #16 on: September 09, 2020, 05:18:17 PM »
Looks as though Trump's best path may be through PA. Updating my prediction accordingly.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #17 on: September 09, 2020, 05:18:38 PM »
This state is likely Biden, and has been for a while.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #18 on: September 09, 2020, 05:23:56 PM »
Trump is running out of options fast.
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Mail-order President
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« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2020, 05:34:32 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on September 09, 2020, 05:17:51 PM
Quote from: Lying Dog-Faced Pony Soldier on September 09, 2020, 05:16:24 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on September 09, 2020, 05:15:33 PM
Quote from: Lying Dog-Faced Pony Soldier on September 09, 2020, 05:14:35 PM
This pollster had Clinton +11 (53-42) a week before election day

Wow, good thing it's not 2016 anymore and pollsters have updated their methodology accordingly.
Have they though?

1. Yes. Among other things, they now weight by education which was the biggest problem before. That and the large number of undecideds in many polls which ultimately broke for Trump, although admittedly that didn't seem to be as big of an issue in this particular case.

2. As mentioned, this sample was Trump +1 in 2016. Good luck explaining that away.
1. Surveyusa has announced they changed their methodology in MN? Would you kindly direct me to that?

2. Yes Trump+1 but its 33-31, I heavily doubt 36% of the electorate are new/3rd party. Garbage
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2020, 05:38:24 PM »
Wait for the live-caller pollster Mason-Dixon to come out within the next two weeks for comparison. SUSA was indeed off in 2016 in MN but was pretty spot on in 2018
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2020, 05:40:32 PM »
Quote from: Horus on September 09, 2020, 05:18:17 PM
Looks as though Trump's best path may be through PA. Updating my prediction accordingly.

Had PA +9 poll today too.

Have you considered that maybe, just maybe, Trump doesn't really have much of a path?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #22 on: September 09, 2020, 05:40:42 PM »


Still Likely D, as far as I'm concerned.
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ExSky
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« Reply #23 on: September 09, 2020, 05:43:14 PM »
Quote from: Lying Dog-Faced Pony Soldier on September 09, 2020, 05:14:35 PM
This pollster had Clinton +11 (53-42) a week before election day

Hmm I wonder if anything happened shortly before that election that was intended to misguide the American public?
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Horus
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« Reply #24 on: September 09, 2020, 05:44:27 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on September 09, 2020, 05:40:32 PM
Quote from: Horus on September 09, 2020, 05:18:17 PM
Looks as though Trump's best path may be through PA. Updating my prediction accordingly.

Had PA +9 poll today too.

Have you considered that maybe, just maybe, Trump doesn't really have much of a path?

No.
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