FL - St. Pete Polls - Biden+3

[ajc0918]

Biden: 50%
Trump: 47%

A new St. Pete Polls survey shows Democrat Joe Biden winning nearly half the Florida vote.

The poll, commissioned by Florida Politics and AARP Florida, finds almost 50% would vote for Biden if the election were held today. More than 47% would vote to reelect President Donald Trump. Less than 2% of voters remain undecided, the poll found, and about 2% will vote for a third-party candidate.

That’s a narrow but distinct lead, just outside the pollster’s 1.9% margin of error.

A peak at crosstabs shows Biden enjoys stronger partisan loyalty than Trump, but only barely. Around 84% of Democrats will vote for their party’s nominee, compared to around 82% of Republicans.

As for independents, almost 50% choose Biden while 46% pick Trump, a more pronounced lead that the state as a whole.

Link: https://floridapolitics.com/archives/365810-st-pete-polls-joe-biden-winning-50-of-florida-voters

[Person Man]

50%.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Changes with July 13-14 poll assuming this is also a poll of registered voters

Biden 50% (n/c)
Trump 47% (+3)
Third party candidate 2% (n/c)
Undecided 2% (-1)

[wbrocks67]

This has Biden +12 with Hispanics.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Per CNN, Indies were 47-43-5 Trump-Clinton-Johnson in 2016. 

[Skill and Chance]

I do think Biden is still going to win Florida, but it will be a skin-of-teeth affair, closer than Obama 2012 and possibly involving a recount. 

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Full release:

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_September8_O3DH1.pdf

September 7-8

Of 2689 likely voters, not registered voters, so trend lines shouldn't apply to this poll.

[krb08]

This has Biden +12 with Hispanics.

Still not the best result, obviously, but maybe it was worth waiting for other polls to confirm Biden wasn't losing FL Latinos before freaking out.

[MplsDem]

40% with a college degree seems high for FL, should be closer to 30%.  Also, Trump leading age 70+ 54-43 kind of throws cold water on the idea that Biden will make up for an expected decline in support among non-Mexican Latinos by winning older voters.  Bad poll for Biden.

[Hammy]

This has Biden +12 with Hispanics.

Good to balance the previous poll

[ajc0918]

This has Biden +12 with Hispanics.

Good to balance the previous poll

Much larger Hispanic sample size than the other poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is gone for Trump as: OH, IA, FL, AZ, NC, GA along with 279 is the map we will see and hopefully TX and GA and AK for Hegar, and Gross

[Alben Barkley]

40% with a college degree seems high for FL, should be closer to 30%.  Also, Trump leading age 70+ 54-43 kind of throws cold water on the idea that Biden will make up for an expected decline in support among non-Mexican Latinos by winning older voters.  Bad poll for Biden.

It's one poll. It doesn't throw cold water on anything. A single poll cannot be taken to prove anything, ESPECIALLY when it comes to the crosstabs, which have wide margins of error. Almost every other poll has Biden up with 65+ by significant margins. And he's still winning the poll, with 50% and by a margin right in line with other recent Florida polls, even though he's losing seniors here and has only a moderate lead with Hispanics. So no, not bad poll for Biden.

[President Johnson]

As I said before, Florida is Tilt Democratic. Still winnable for Trump of course and will be within two points either way, but we have rarely seen any serious poll for months showing Trump ahead. The Biden campaign, however, should more focus on Latino voters in the state since polls indicate there is more work to do. Older voters switching as a result of Covid may deliver him state even if he doesn't get the same numbers from Latinos as Nelson or Hillary.

[ON Progressive]

40% with a college degree seems high for FL, should be closer to 30%.  Also, Trump leading age 70+ 54-43 kind of throws cold water on the idea that Biden will make up for an expected decline in support among non-Mexican Latinos by winning older voters.  Bad poll for Biden.

The 2018 exit poll had 40% college educated, and actually showed almost no education gap.

[John Dule]

I know we're supposed to expect narrowing at this point, but is anyone else disturbed by how much Biden's lead in Florida has eroded lately?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I know we're supposed to expect narrowing at this point, but is anyone else disturbed by how much Biden's lead in Florida has eroded lately?

From yesterday:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1303427865581682689

[Alben Barkley]

I know we're supposed to expect narrowing at this point, but is anyone else disturbed by how much Biden's lead in Florida has eroded lately?

Florida is really the only state that has seen his average lead notably decrease lately, and I guess that really shouldn't be surprising since it is Florida. Maybe it was optimistic to ever expect it to go for Biden by more than 2-3 points. But still, not impossible he rebounds with more polling, and moreover not so long ago people thought Florida was Titanium Tilt R.

[oriass16]

This is down 3 points from their last poll which good news for trump.

[wbrocks67]

I know we're supposed to expect narrowing at this point, but is anyone else disturbed by how much Biden's lead in Florida has eroded lately?

his lead has been about 3 in recent polls. if you take out Q-Pac, it was prob like 5/6 before, which is not that far from within MoE

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's good to see Biden at 50% in a Florida poll, and it's good to see this one contrast the Marist poll which had him losing Latin voters (which as bearish as I am about Florida, I never believed-it is conceivable that Trump will keep it closer here with this demographic than in most other states.) but that's also at the expense of him having the lead with seniors and Florida being as trustworthy as that Ray Winstone character from 'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.' At best this poll is a lateral move, but also another sign that this state is just plain frustrating.