Morning Consult: +6 Nationally / Battleground States

[wbrocks67]

National (9/5-9/7)l: Biden 50 - Trump 44

Battlegrounds (8/29-9/7)

Michigan: Biden 52 - Trump 42 (Biden +10 last week)
Wisconsin: Biden 51 - Trump 43 (Biden +9 last week)
Florida: Biden 50 - Trump 45 (Biden +2 last week)
Texas: Biden 46 - Trump 46 (Trump +1 last week)
Pennsylvania: Biden 50 - Trump 45 (Biden +4 last week)
Ohio: Trump 50 - Biden 45 (Trump +5 last week)
North Carolina: Biden 48 - Trump 47 (Biden +2 last week)
Minnesota: Biden 49 - Trump 44 (Biden +7 last week)
Georgia: Trump 48 - Biden 46 (Biden +3 last week)
Colorado: Biden 49 - Trump 43 (Biden +10 last week)
Arizona: Biden 49 - Trump 46 (Biden +10 last week)

[wbrocks67]

Kinda wonky sample, a large portion of it is directly after the RNC, so the sample could be weird, but the national # is also kinda out of step a bit.

Michigan and WI are just a strong as they've been, while Florida, PA, TX have seen an uptick. Arizona and CO samples seem to be all over the place (this had Biden +10 last week in AZ and in CO).

[Rand]

Vice President Joe Biden

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL at Wisconsin being more Democratic than Colorado.

[DaleCooper]

LOL at Wisconsin being more Democratic than Colorado.

This particular set of polls almost indicates a Biden EC advantage relative to the popular vote which, needless to say, I'm skeptical of.

[Brittain33]

LOL at Wisconsin being more Democratic than Colorado.

This particular set of polls almost indicates a Biden EC advantage relative to the popular vote which, needless to say, I'm skeptical of.

Does it? Assuming PA and FL are the typical tipping point state, they're R+1 relative to the national results. It's not a Biden EC advantage, just a smaller Trump advantage than we assume.

[wbrocks67]

Just amazing how consistent TX has been in polling. It's been a tied/Biden+1/Trump +1 race for months now in nearly every poll

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Sample sizes are all of likely voters

National
September 5-7
12,000
MoE: 1%
Changes with August 28-30 poll.

Biden 50% (-1)
Trump 44% (+1)

State polls
August 29 - September 7
18,465 likely voters overall
MoE between 2% and 4% per state
Changes with August 21-30 polls except where otherwise stated

AZ
Biden 49 (-3)
Trump 46 (+4)

CO
Biden 49 (-2)
Trump 43 (+2)

FL
Biden 50 (+1)
Trump 45 (-2)

GA
Trump 48 (+2)
Biden 46 (-3)

MI
Biden 52 (n/c)
Trump 42 (n/c)

MN
Biden 49 (-1)
Trump 44 (+1)

NC
Biden 48 (-1)
Trump 47 (n/c)

OH
Trump 50 (n/c)
Biden 45 (n/c)

PA
Biden 50 (+1)
Trump 45 (n/c)

TX
Biden 46 (-1)
Trump 46 (-2)

WI
791 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%
Changes with August 28 - September 6 poll.

Biden 51 (n/c)
Trump 43 (n/c)

[Roblox]

Lol I like how this is suggesting basically 2012 pvi’s.

[Brittain33]

Just amazing how consistent TX has been in polling. It's been a tied/Biden+1/Trump +1 race for months now in nearly every poll

Could be poll herding because of how inexperienced pollsters are with a competitive Texas

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Lol I like how this is suggesting basically 2012 pvi’s.

Texas is a dead heat and they didn't even bother polling Virginia because it's now a waste of time.

[Roblox]

Lol I like how this is suggesting basically 2012 pvi’s.

Texas is a dead heat and they didn't even bother polling Virginia because it's now a waste of time.

Should’ve specified specifically in Michigan and Wisconsin, didn’t really look down the lost before commenting.

[bilaps]

Put in the trash.

[neostassenite31]

For these kinds of multi-state tracking polls the ideal would be to get daily numbers like in Wisconsin, otherwise it could be very difficult to discern random fluctuations from swings. 

[wbrocks67]

For these kinds of multi-state tracking polls the ideal would be to get daily numbers like in Wisconsin, otherwise it could be very difficult to discern random fluctuations from swings. 

Yeah, I wish they would just release the trackers of all the states like they are doing with Wisconsin. I'm not really sure how their tracker can go from Biden +10 to Biden +3 in AZ in just a week (must've been some VERY wonky daily updates), not to mention the week before last, it was Trump +2

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Sample sizes are in (for likely voters). According to 538:

AZ 901
CO 657
FL 3914
GA 1486
MI 1455
MN 649
NC 1592
OH 1963
PA 2227
TX 2829

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Senator, Hegar will be in the Senate next year, Joaquin Castro passed up a golden opportunity to run for the Senate this year.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Morning Consult is junk it was Trump+2 in AZ, then Biden+10, and now Biden+3.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Morning Consult is junk it was Trump+2 in AZ, then Biden+10, and now Biden+3.

Lol Dems have had a Generic Ballot Lead on every ballot test by 7 pts, enough to win AZ

[Lief 🗽]

Morning Consult is junk it was Trump+2 in AZ, then Biden+10, and now Biden+3.

Nah that’s how margin of error works. I trust this much more than  poll showing Biden up by the same margin every week.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Just amazing how consistent TX has been in polling. It's been a tied/Biden+1/Trump +1 race for months now in nearly every poll

And yet, funny enough, RCP is the only outlet I see that considers it a tossup (Besides Atlas & Niskanen). Of course, their polling map has Missouri as a tossup so take it for what it's worth.