PA-NBC/Marist: Biden +9

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Other 1%
Undecided 2%

[JRP1994]

Scranton Joe

[ElectionsGuy]

Here is Marist's track record going back to every vaguely competitive race since 2016 and recording their final poll (or any poll) that was done in the September to November period.

2016

President

Arizona: Trump +5
Florida: Clinton +1
Georgia: Trump +1
New Hampshire: Clinton +2
Nevada: Trump +1
North Carolina: Clinton +6
Ohio: Tie
Pennsylvania: Clinton +12

Senators

Arizona: McCain +16
Florida: Rubio +2
Nevada: Heck +7!!
North Carolina: Tie
Pennsylvania: McGinty +4

Notice how Republicans fared better in polling for Congress vs Trump, yet they didn't end up performing as much better as polling showed.

2018

Senators

Arizona: Sinema +6
Florida: Nelson +4
Indiana: Donnelly +3
Missouri: McCaskill +3
Nevada: Heller +2
Ohio: Brown +13
Tennessee: Blackburn +5
Wisconsin: Baldwin +14

Governors

Florida: Gillum +4
Georgia: Kemp +2 (Got it right for once!)
Nevada: Laxalt +1
Ohio: Tie
Wisconsin: Evers +8

So, what matters more to people. A pollster's track record, or their 538 rating which is clearly not rated on accuracy? I have a feeling this poll is going to end up very siimiliarly to most of these...

[tagimaucia]

538’s rating system is really dumb because it doesn’t account for methodological changes and it doesn’t seem to have any recency bias, which it really should. I guess that Marist was a really good poll for a long time, but if it’s been that bad lately it shouldn’t be given much weight. It’s equally absurd that Emerson is an A- even though all its good results came before it started using MTurk as a major part of its process. Also, it’s just absurd that Marist still doesn’t weight by education (I think?)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

538’s rating system is really dumb because it doesn’t account for methodological changes and it doesn’t seem to have any recency bias, which it really should. I guess that Marist was a really good poll for a long time, but if it’s been that bad lately it shouldn’t be given much weight. It’s equally absurd that Emerson is an A- even though all its good results came before it started using MTurk as a major part of its process. Also, it’s just absurd that Marist still doesn’t weight by education (I think?)

It really does feel arbitrary sometimes.  Particularly not a fan of Silver's split-ratings ("A/B").  

We had a former user here that would start every one of his polling posts with "From 538 A-plus, gold standard pollster..." as though that actually carried a ton of weight.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

538’s rating system is really dumb because it doesn’t account for methodological changes and it doesn’t seem to have any recency bias, which it really should. I guess that Marist was a really good poll for a long time, but if it’s been that bad lately it shouldn’t be given much weight. It’s equally absurd that Emerson is an A- even though all its good results came before it started using MTurk as a major part of its process. Also, it’s just absurd that Marist still doesn’t weight by education (I think?)

Nate Cohn has a couple of thoughts on both Marist's weighting and 538's ratings:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1303676349509505025

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1303678150854017024

[Skye]

538’s rating system is really dumb because it doesn’t account for methodological changes and it doesn’t seem to have any recency bias, which it really should. I guess that Marist was a really good poll for a long time, but if it’s been that bad lately it shouldn’t be given much weight. It’s equally absurd that Emerson is an A- even though all its good results came before it started using MTurk as a major part of its process. Also, it’s just absurd that Marist still doesn’t weight by education (I think?)

Nate Cohn has a couple of thoughts on both Marist's weighting and 538's ratings:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1303676349509505025
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1303678150854017024

Let me just grab my popcorn.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Let me just grab my popcorn.

What do you mean, Skye? Silver takes criticism well and isn't petty or vindictive.  

(I'm apparently in a shade-throwing mood this morning)

[tagimaucia]

I think the two Nates at least grudgingly respect each other.  Nate Silver clearly hates G. Elliott Morris with a fierce passion lol.

[Skye]

Let me just grab my popcorn.

What do you mean, Skye? Silver takes criticism well and isn't petty or vindictive.  

(I'm apparently in a shade-throwing mood this morning)

I'm sure Silver will take it well 👀

I think the two Nates at least grudgingly respect each other.  Nate Silver clearly hates G. Elliott Morris with a fierce passion lol.

Yes, it's clear he hates him, but TBF, I've noticed other pundits avoid interacting with Morris as well.

[bilaps]

Now watch Atlas do a 180 on PA and claim that it’s the MOST likely state of the four (MN/WI/PA/MI) to vote for Biden and that they never doubted it lol. The overreactions are hilariously predictable.

I'm awaiting the folks that'll attempt to twist themselves into knots explaining why we should trust the NBC/Marist FL poll but not this NBC/Marist PA poll.

We do have precedent with Trafalgar polls of MI/WI (And no other states!!!)

And other way around for sure? Funny how people only look to other side.

For sure, PA is not 9pts to the left of FL. So basicaly only conclusion I can have from these 2 polls are that Marist is bad.

[Crumpets]

Post-Comey letter, Hillary never got a poll of +9 or higher in any of WI, MI, or PA. There's still plenty of time for Trump, Barr, and friends to try to pull a Comey letter-style stunt, but it's just not reasonable at this point to say we're "just a polling error away from Trump winning" to use Nate Silver's phrase.

[ProudModerate2]

Is this what caused 538's forecast to sky-rocket Biden to winning-odds of 74/100?
I think he was at 70/100 yesterday.
Anyway, nice number for Biden.

[Crumpets]

Is this what caused 538's forecast to sky-rocket Biden to winning-odds of 74/100?
I think he was at 70/100 yesterday.
Anyway, nice number for Biden.

It's funny after all of the debate here and on Twitter over the 538 model and the JHK model, they have started to converge. 538 is at 74% Biden win and JHK is at 78% Biden win.

[Sir Mohamed]

He's not going to win PA by 9. As said before, 3 or 4 seems the be realistic. Intersting though is Atlas overreacting to polls showing Biden up by these margins since we expect Trump to overperform polls on election day since he did so in 2016 (at least in Rust Belt states).

[Gass3268]

Even though they don't weigh for education, their education numbers aren't that off what they they should be.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1303694524544364544?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gov Tom Wolf won by 17 pts, this puts the end of Trump who won on the back of Gary Johnson, of winning PA

[Gass3268]

Here is Marist's track record going back to every vaguely competitive race since 2016 and recording their final poll (or any poll) that was done in the September to November period.

2016

President

Arizona: Trump +5
Florida: Clinton +1
Georgia: Trump +1
New Hampshire: Clinton +2
Nevada: Trump +1
North Carolina: Clinton +6
Ohio: Tie
Pennsylvania: Clinton +12

Senators

Arizona: McCain +16
Florida: Rubio +2
Nevada: Heck +7!!
North Carolina: Tie
Pennsylvania: McGinty +4

Notice how Republicans fared better in polling for Congress vs Trump, yet they didn't end up performing as much better as polling showed.

2018

Senators

Arizona: Sinema +6
Florida: Nelson +4
Indiana: Donnelly +3
Missouri: McCaskill +3
Nevada: Heller +2
Ohio: Brown +13
Tennessee: Blackburn +5
Wisconsin: Baldwin +14

Governors

Florida: Gillum +4
Georgia: Kemp +2 (Got it right for once!)
Nevada: Laxalt +1
Ohio: Tie
Wisconsin: Evers +8

So, what matters more to people. A pollster's track record, or their 538 rating which is clearly not rated on accuracy? I have a feeling this poll is going to end up very siimiliarly to most of these...

These numbers are meaningless unless you provide a date as to when they were taken/released as they totally ignore the fact that there were major events that took place during this time period (debates, Access Hollywood Tape, Comey letter) that radically moved numbers. Same thing happened to a lesser extent in 2018 (Kavanaugh hearings). The last Marist PA poll was released on 10/6/2020, yet you are saying they are awful because they were wrong about an election that occurred a month later.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

No way that Central PA has swung like that, but it's a crosstab, so we'll forgive it.

I live here and, yeah, that's not happening. Even if Biden has made some very impressive gains in increasingly-liberal Lancaster (plausible) there's no way it offsets counties like Adams and York. I can't tell you the number of Confederate and Trump flags out in the rural parts here.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Central: Trump 50-48 (+2)
West: Trump 54-43 (+11)

These both seem very weak for Trump, no? I can't see State College alone keeping it close in central.

[jd7171]

Central: Trump 50-48 (+2)
West: Trump 54-43 (+11)

These both seem very weak for Trump, no? I can't see State College alone keeping it close in central.

Not likely. Trump is still popular out in these parts. Biden will probably do better than Clinton by a few points. The bigger problem for him is matching his vote totals in those counties given their all losing population.

[MplsDem]

Does anyone know if Marist counts people with 2-year degrees as "college graduates" in their sample?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Should we be worried though that Marist is still not weighting by education?

However, this lines up with Q-pac and again, we've had a good amount of Biden 6-9 PA polling.

I don't know if Biden is actually up by 9, but it's clear that Rasmussen and Susquehanna were junk.

Philadelphia: Biden 82-15 (+67)
Philadelphia suburbs: Biden 62-34 (+28)
Northeast: Trump 53-43 (+10)
Central: Trump 50-48 (+2)
West: Trump 54-43 (+11)

2016 exits were:
Philadelphia: Clinton 83-15 (Clinton +68)
Philly suburbs: Clinton 55-42 (Clinton +13)
Northeast: Trump 55-42 (Trump +13)
Central: Trump 62-34 (Trump  +28)
West: Trump 54-42 (Trump +12

So big swings in the Philly suburbs and Central PA. Rest of the state is static.

There was a devastating collapse in NE, Central and Western PA for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Hillary also under performed a bit in Philly itself, due to a lot of WWC ethnic whites. There was supposed to be a equally large counter swing to the Democrats in the Philly suburbs. There was a moderate swing, but not enough to counteract the collapse in outstate PA.

[Xing]

Wow, I had just changed PA from Likely D to Likely R, but it’s time for another ratings change!

PA: Likely R -> Safe D

I thought it would vote right of IA, but now it’s definitely voting left of NV.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Good, maybe this forum can stop nervously obsessing over this state now. Keep obsessing over Florida instead, that's more deserved.

Also any blue avatar who was celebrating Marist's Florida poll is a massive hypocrite in yet another way if they are rejecting this one.