Portland Oregon 2020 Mayoral Election?

[NOVA Green]

Again... as usual with polls I post, I will not vote...

Here is an article from the Oregonian/ OregonLive to polling results:

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2020/09/nearly-2-in-3-portland-voters-view-mayor-ted-wheeler-unfavorably-even-more-favor-new-police-oversight-system-poll-shows.html

[Dr. MB]

Poll comes out with Wheeler at 26% approval and then he does this:

https://twitter.com/joshdcaplan/status/1304141254830284801?s=20

Really trying to change the narrative I guess.

[I’m not Stu]

Is Iannarone an Elizabeth Warren type, a typical Berniecrat, or a well to the left of the Berniecrats type (like Kshama Sawant)?

[StateBoiler]

https://www.wweek.com/news/2020/09/16/portland-voters-are-fed-up-with-ted-wheeler-but-are-they-ready-for-sarah-iannarone/

[OBD]

Is Iannarone an Elizabeth Warren type, a typical Berniecrat, or a well to the left of the Berniecrats type (like Kshama Sawant)?

Iannarone is aligned with more DemSoc elements in Portland, so I say she's somewhere between a generic Berniecrat and a Sawant. At least to me, Raifford's political leanings are less clear, though she seems to be running on a platform more focused on police accountability. However, Raifford generally seems to be winning backing from Portland's furthest-left elements (think commie-types and antifa), which probably cripples Iannarone.

[PSOL]

I expect Raifford to act as a spoiler enough for Ted Wheeler to eke out a win. How disappointing.

[GALeftist]

Wasn't Raiford eliminated back in May?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Wasn't Raiford eliminated back in May?

She's running a meme-tier write-in campaign.

[GALeftist]

Wasn't Raiford eliminated back in May?

She's running a meme-tier write-in campaign.

I see. Cringe.

[Intell]

Hopefully Wheeler wins.

[smoltchanov]

Hopefully Wheeler wins.

[NOVA Green]

So, me and my wife don't live in Portland, although we have briefly in the past, and have Daughter & Son-In-Law in the City...

Despite that decades of being Oregonians, Portland is a place we are well familiar with over the past 40+ Years...

So Willamette Week article (Free rag available throughout the City) which goes back to '74...

Story in their latest edition:

https://www.wweek.com/news/2020/09/16/portland-voters-are-fed-up-with-ted-wheeler-but-are-they-ready-for-sarah-iannarone/

A little more than four years ago, Sarah Iannarone, an unknown Portland State University bureaucrat, launched a long-shot bid for mayor, preaching the value of sustainability and smarter transportation and land-use policies.

She finished third, behind Ted Wheeler and former Multnomah County Commissioner Jules Bailey.

This year, Iannarone, 47, is back—and running a far more aggressive campaign, pounding Wheeler and the Portland Police Bureau on social media....   Few have latched onto the energy of protest more than Iannarone, who has been on the front lines dozens of times, refers to herself as an "everyday anti-fascist," and has declared, "I am Antifa."

Iannarone—a neighborhood activist, policy wonk and longtime student of what makes cities succeed—hopes to defeat Wheeler, 58, who in turn hopes to become the city's first two-term mayor since the late Vera Katz...."The city deserves better than Ted Wheeler," Iannarone says. "I have a real vision for Portland, and the reason I've pulled these policies together is because that's what I see as our pathway out of this mess."

Yet Iannarone is still unknown to many Portlanders. To oust Wheeler, voters will need to decide what they think of Iannarone. Are they exhausted enough after a string of mayors with conventional résumés that they're willing to bet on someone who spent her life outside the halls of power?

As a few Oregon posters have jumped in from Metro PDX... I thought it might be interesting to see an article from WW, which is a widely read publication, but also within Metro PDX going back decades (kind of paper you pick up sometimes when you are trying to figure out the latest rock shows coming up in the City, even if you from the Cities down Valley)...

[NOVA Green]

Stuff getting heated in the Portland OR Mayor Race...

Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler said the city could split from the Joint Office of Homeless Services it operates with Multnomah County if more people experiencing homelessness in the city aren’t promptly given opportunities to get shelter beds.

During an endorsement interview with The Oregonian/OregonLive editorial board and fellow mayoral candidate Sarah Iannarone, Wheeler said he wanted more attention from the county on aid to people experiencing chronic homelessness. He said he was directing city staffers to find resources to open at least 300 new beds by November and said the city would pull its funding from the joint agency it the county didn’t similarly shift gears.

https://www.oregonlive.com/portland/2020/09/portland-mayor-threatens-to-pull-city-from-county-partnered-homeless-efforts-county-chair-calls-it-outrageous.html

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We now have a poll for one of the ballot measures up in Portland this year:
https://www.oregonlive.com/commuting/2020/09/opponents-release-poll-say-metros-7-billion-transportation-package-in-tough-spot.html

Measure 26-218 would impose a payroll tax (max. 0.75%) on businesses with 26+ employees (but not local governments) to invest in transport (primarily roads). It would also (slightly) beef up the city council's role in transportation infrastructure.

GS Strategy Group of Boise (seemingly conducted for the Stop the Metro Wage Tax Campaign, which is against this measure)
September 2-6
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%

FOR 42%
AGAINST 38%
Undecided 20%

[Big Abraham]

Despite what some in the media will have you believe, Portland is not the city, by and large, of antifa  rioters and super left-wing firebrands. It's progressive, but the voters here are reliable Democrats. Wheeler will likely win.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile--- may or may not be relevant....

https://www.oregonlive.com/watchdog/2020/10/mayor-ted-wheelers-office-requested-protest-police-help-from-washington-agencies-under-oregon-specific-agreement.html

Also Sarah Iannarone was interviewed in the Oregonian earlier today.... (Remember we won't see ballots in Oregon until at min 10 days out so no early voting outside of military and overseas oregonians)

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2020/10/portland-mayoral-candidate-sarah-iannarone-on-protests-policing-immediate-plans-if-elected-qa.html

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So... (asking to Portlanders/Oregonians) race rating one month out? Is this Likely Wheeler?

[Dr. MB]

So... (asking to Portlanders/Oregonians) race rating one month out? Is this Likely Wheeler?

I think it's a tossup. We'll see if the write in acts as a spoiler or what. But Wheeler's not done much to give people a reason to vote for him. He's wedged in the middle between two sides who hate him for different reasons and that's never a good position to be in. Keep in mind the primary happened a couple weeks before protests started and that's tanked him so far.

[OBD]

So... (asking to Portlanders/Oregonians) race rating one month out? Is this Likely Wheeler?

Likely Wheeler is appropriate from my point of view, though I'd really like to see this race get polled. At this point, Iannarone is a good deal left of the mainstream even for Portland, and the activist energy that is absolutely necessary to pull off the upset is now backing Raiford. Plus, the conservative opposition to Wheeler, if informed, will almost certainly not vote at all.

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://www.wweek.com/news/city/2020/10/05/portland-mayor-ted-wheeler-trails-challenger-sarah-iannarone-by-11-points-according-to-dhm-poll/

Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler trails his challenger Sarah Iannarone by 11 points, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by DHM Research on behalf of the Portland Business Alliance.

The results were presented at a PBA meeting last week.

Wheeler polled at 30% to Iannarone's 41%, with the remaining 29% of surveyed voters split between writing in a candidate (16%) or remaining undecided (13%). It's an especially notable result given that the poll was not conducted by either campaign, though PBA is supporting the mayor. (The poll has a four percentage point margin of error.)

[NOVA Green]

https://www.wweek.com/news/city/2020/10/05/portland-mayor-ted-wheeler-trails-challenger-sarah-iannarone-by-11-points-according-to-dhm-poll/

Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler trails his challenger Sarah Iannarone by 11 points, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by DHM Research on behalf of the Portland Business Alliance.

The results were presented at a PBA meeting last week.

Wheeler polled at 30% to Iannarone's 41%, with the remaining 29% of surveyed voters split between writing in a candidate (16%) or remaining undecided (13%). It's an especially notable result given that the poll was not conducted by either campaign, though PBA is supporting the mayor. (The poll has a four percentage point margin of error.)

Thanks!

Beat me to posting this, since I was at work waiting to get off shift before posting---

Will Wheeler be the next 3rd term Mayor or is Portland ready for a change?

Can someone please discuss with PDX precinct maps, since I really don't have time with everything else going down?

I can pull raw vote precinct numbers as needed for the 1st Vote if you PM me, might be able to pull up data if you can't get it from original and official places...

I'm downstate OR, so one of the last things many of us are thinking about is a Portland Mayoral Election in November....

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 17-22

Wheeler says his internals put him "in a position to win." That reads like he's losing.

[PSOL]

That 13% undecided will push Wheeler to win.

[OBD]

https://www.wweek.com/news/city/2020/10/05/portland-mayor-ted-wheeler-trails-challenger-sarah-iannarone-by-11-points-according-to-dhm-poll/

Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler trails his challenger Sarah Iannarone by 11 points, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by DHM Research on behalf of the Portland Business Alliance.

The results were presented at a PBA meeting last week.

Wheeler polled at 30% to Iannarone's 41%, with the remaining 29% of surveyed voters split between writing in a candidate (16%) or remaining undecided (13%). It's an especially notable result given that the poll was not conducted by either campaign, though PBA is supporting the mayor. (The poll has a four percentage point margin of error.)

Wow. You love to see it (a poll).

Assuming a big chunk (16%!) of write ins go to Raiford, this really indicates that Iannarone is getting screwed by her. That said, gonna have to alter my rating to a Tossup after this.

Btw an election rules thing - if no one receives 50% in the runoff, is it just FPTP?

[Suburbia]

Ianaronne will win. Portland will be shunned by Oregon Republicans and Democrats.