Iranian Americans in Beverly Hills, CA

[Gren]

Let's go straight to the point.

Democrats' share of the Two-party vote in Beverly Hills:

2000:79%
2004: 63%
2008: 60%
2012: 55%
2016: 66%

Why has BH shifted away from the Democrats so notably? (except for 2016, obviously). I have read a few things regarding the Iranian community there (which is heavily Jewish, as I understand it), but would like to know more about the reasons that have led to this trend. Although I suppose the different policies towards Iran of both parties have a lot to do with it, is there any other cause? The city doesn't seem more socially conservative than neighboring areas: it did vote quite heavily against Prop 8 (actually, the No vote overperformed Obama by 5 percentage points there).

Also, how do you think the city will vote this year if Biden keeps his current lead? Will Beverly Hills swing towards the Democrats, or will Trump's decision to withdraw the US from the Iran deal be a vote-winner there?

[King of Kensington]

It's funny that Beverly Hills is still stereotyped as "ultra-liberal."

[Gren]

It's funny that Beverly Hills is still stereotyped as "ultra-liberal."

Well, it is still much more Democratic than the country as a whole, so it's a rather liberal enclave. However, the sort of Democrat voters in Beverly Hills are not very progressive (Bernie got trounced there by Bloomberg and Biden), so in a way you are right about the stereotype being unfair. Also, I guess Beverly Hills tends to be lumped together with other areas in Westside los Angeles (Bel Air, Brentwood, Beverly Glen, etc.) which are generally liberal; therefore, its distinct voting patterns are disregarded.

[Biden his time]

What was the margin in this city during the 2020 Presidential election?

And what about the 2021 recall?

[Thunder98]

What was the margin in this city during the 2020 Presidential election?

And what about the 2021 recall?

Beverly Hills swung and trend heavily to the GOP in 2020.

[RI]

What was the margin in this city during the 2020 Presidential election?

And what about the 2021 recall?

Beverly Hills swung and trend heavily to the GOP in 2020.

This is true of many of the predominately Jewish cities on both sides of the Santa Monica Mountains.

[vileplume]

Funnily enough it is actually possible to draw an Assembly district (a Congressional District is too big) that voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020 that contains all of Beverley Hills and is also completely contained within LA County. As you can expect it is one of the ugliest things imaginable:



This monstrosity was Trump+2 in 2016 and Trump+1 in 2020.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Funnily enough it is actually possible to draw an Assembly district (a Congressional District is too big) that voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020 that contains all of Beverley Hills and is also completely contained within LA County. As you can expect it is one of the ugliest things imaginable:



This monstrosity was Trump+2 in 2016 and Trump+1 in 2020.

No one who’s drawn a SoCal congressional district that is <10% NHW and >28% Black/Latino/Asian would call that one of the ugliest things imaginable lol. That’s basically rural wilderness + Beverly Hills + the whiter parts of the Gateway Cities (between Long Beach and Orange County proper).

[HAnnA MArin County]

What was the margin in this city during the 2020 Presidential election?

And what about the 2021 recall?

BEVERLY HILLS
2016 (D+ 31.18)
Clinton 9,743 (63.81%)
Trump 4,982 (32.63%)
Johnson 338 (2.21%)
Stein 172 (1.13%)
La Riva 33 (0.22%)

2020 (D+ 11.21)
Biden 10,453 (55.07%)
Trump 8,325 (43.86%)
Jorgensen 114 (0.60%)
De La Fuente 39 (0.21%)
Hawkins 33 (0.17%)
La Riva 17 (0.09%)

Swing (16-20): R+ 19.97

On the recall vs. 2018:
2018 (D+ 25.74)
Newsom 8,308 (62.87%)
Cox 4,906 (37.13%)

2021 (No+ 08.58)
No 7,479 (54.29%)
Yes 6,297 (45.71%)

Swing (18-21): R+ 17.16

FWIW, Beverly Hills did have the largest swing away from Newsom from 2018 among all 88 cities in Los Angeles County. Couldn't tell you why, though.

And as another poster indicated above, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren finished in distant third and fourth places (respectively) behind Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg in the 2020 Democratic primary. Hillary carried Beverly Hills handily in both the 2008 and 2016 Democratic primaries as well.